Jordan Zinberg Aritzia Inc. ATZ-T WEAK BUY May 05, 2025

He'd loaded up, but trimmed yesterday to bring the position back in line. Still loves the outlook for the stock, one of his major weightings. US expansion going extremely well, lots of runway. Price target in 2-3 years might be $75-85. If $75, don't buy now. If $85, could buy a bit today and average in.

Ran into self-imposed issues surrounding communication involving capex spending. Plus "lost" a fashion season. Only retailer he's comfortable owning -- big US business, very successful online. Makes and sells its own products. Reduced his portfolio position on valuation, but a bright future.

The question was on Aritzia or Dollarama taking some of the space left by the bankruptcy of HBC and could Aritzia move back up to $70. The answer was inconclusive.

With tariffs, could see the price of clothing go up. As Springsteen sang, textile jobs are not coming back to NA; clothes will still be imported. Impact on the clothing industry remains to be seen. Thinks prices will go higher, but people still need to get dressed. Onshoring will be a multi-year journey.

Correction is probably overdone, will probably bounce.

Issue these companies face is where the manufacturing is, hard to move it someplace else. Margin hit will probably be more than the 2.5% calculated by Raymond James. Lots of uncertainty, stock can probably fall further.

So early in its growth phase. Square footage growth about 10-15% for next 5 years, and add that to same-store sales growth of ~5-6%. Under-penetrated in US.

It has had 30% revenue growth year over year and e-commerce was up over 50%. It did temper guidelines in the last report. Wait for a downturn because it has history of volatility and is up a lot right now. The market is myopic in the way it looks at quarter by quarter results and any changes in margins.

They act more like a staple. They attract a wide range of age groups, young and old. Competition is tough, but they are run well and trade at a reasonable PE.

He wouldn't buy now because it has shot up so much. It was their largest holding but they have taken some profits recently. It is not priced in to their growth margin. It has a history of volatility so if it drops by 1/4 to 1/3 you could consider taking a position. You should be aware of the effects of tariffs. The products they have in their U.S. stores basically come from overseas. The long term picture is very attractive with lots of runway for growth internationally and the opening of new stores in the U.S.