Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAAthabasca Oil Sands CorpATH.TOBUY ON WEAKNESSApr 21, 2025

Very positive uptrend, but under pressure today. His team expects a risk-on rally into July-ish, and when markets come under pressure after that oil should start to rally again. Use weakness in the next month to add energy.

Thinks it's a double from here (not a 1-year target). Meaningful compounding of share buybacks over time. Roughly 35% upside next year at $80 oil.

Despite the runup, long-term upside warrants being exposed today, as long as you can ride with the volatility.

A number of analysts whom he respects recommend it for its ability to grow. Doesn't think Iran war settlement will necessarily cause gas price to fall. Great properties. Valuation not fantastic.

He owns SU.

What do you want to own today? Canada. Oil. Asset duration. Free cashflow. Share buybacks. This name checks off every single box. Still sees over 100% upside long term at $80 oil in this name, so he's trying to sit on his hands and not sell.

He'd have made it a Top Pick again today if he were allowed.

The high is around $8. It just broke above recent highs in the consolidation zone. Pretty important technical resistance is around $7. Likes it here, and doesn't mind buying at these levels. Positive, long-term trend on the 5-year chart. 

Awesome chart, especially given how choppy crude's been. Crude picking up would be an additional tailwind.

In a post-shale world, Canada will receive a lot of fund flows. He took advantage of the Venezuelan selloff to increase his position weight in this name.

A long-term hold. He's going to do his best to sit on his hands and never sell a share, as he sees meaningful upside over time. Ramping up current production, looking to start a new project. Once those both get going, has 40 years of stay-flat inventory (phenomenal).

Is not bullish energy, but the Venezuela news won't effect oil that much. ATH is excellent in terms of quants: improving return on invested capital, from 0% in 2020 to 10% in the past 4 quarters. They have a clean balance sheet. Likes it. 

Is up 56% this year. It went sideways for the first quarter of 2025, then broke out. He likes energy. There will be volatility here, such as mid-October. Don't wait for a dip. Given the trend, buy now.

Massively buying back stock. Roughly 70+ years of stay-flat inventory. Plus, has probably benefited from sellers of MEG looking for a similar name. Bit of a premium valuation at 8.2x forward cashflow. Sees meaningful long-term upside, especially with his prediction for $80 oil.

Is benefiting from weakness in American shale. The Oil Sands have been overlooked for a long while; the Oil Sands have supply unlike much of the world which is and will face oil supply shortages. ATH has no debt. They will have over 50 years of stay-flat inventory. Have low or no growth, but will buy back as much as stock free cash flow allows. There is a take-put premium in the current share price. At $70 oil, this will trade at 11% free cash flow yield. He sees $80 oil in a year or more, but not for the next 9 months at least. Great managers.

Valuation is compelling, but offset by weak sector sentiment involving global macro economic concerns, tariffs, possible downturns. Trades at a very cheap 3x enterprise value over EBITDA, with 12% FCF yield. Watch the technicals and the macro trends for a turnaround.

No debt. Roughly $134M net cash. Business model is defendable down to $50 oil. Purish-play, oil sands name. Very clean story. Modest growth, 50+ years of stay-flat inventory. Residual free cashflow dollars are being used to buy back shares. In March alone, bought back 2% of shares outstanding. Management team is underestimated, has done a fantastic job. Gives you exposure to better days ahead for oil. No dividend.

Buy any dip. They will modestly grow production over 5 years and buy 68% of shares at the current oil price; at $80 they could almost privatize. At $70 oil in 5 years, they will free cash flow at the current share price. Has 50 years of stay-flat inventory. At flat oil, will go from 3.9x cash flow this year, 3.2x in 2026 and 0.3x in 2029.