Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFAAlimentation Couche-TardATD.TOPAST TOP PICKApr 08, 2025

Loves it. His firm just bought more this week on the weakness after quarterly results. Pursuing $8B deal in Poland/Romania -- in retrospect, that's a better prize than 7-Eleven. Zabka's organic growth is ~20%, digitally enabled, all in-store merchandise (higher margins than fuel). Probably the best acquisition they've ever done.

Is -10% from all-time highs, but over 40 years, they compounded shareholder wealth under 20% as is their return on equity. He owns a large position. Doesn't know why shares are down. Great long-term prospects.

Done well over last 12 months, but underperformed some competitors. Fundamentals have taken a turn for the much better. New leadership has done a great job improving same-store sales for food and fresh food. Just did its largest deal ever (at a reasonable price), in Poland and Romania. All of a sudden, Poland is a fast-growing economy. 

Once you master quick retail, the sky's the limit. Tremendous valuation opportunity, especially as stock's fallen off for no good reason. Yield is 0.96%.

Well-run. He's watching it. It broke above its 3-year consolidation. Looks good. It could pull back to $85 then bounce when you can re-buy or take profits.

Consumer staple, stable services and products. Not a bad chart -- rising 200-day MA, price is above 50-day. Single-digit growth rates, so not the type of name he looks for (unless valuation is very cheap). Trades at 20x forward PE, with ~9% growth. PEG ratio is 2x. 

Better growth names such as COST or WMT.

Wonderful business, very well run. Valuation flip-flops, depending on what people think of their deals. At the end of the day, this company is exceptionally good at doing acquisitions. As they've built scale, margins have exploded. Scale also lets them negotiate better pricing. Good capital allocators. Founders are still significant owners and aligned with shareholders.

One to definitely have on your Buy list. Pushing above 20x PE, really good FCF yield. Wait for a pullback.

Pursuit of 7-Eleven was an ambitious gambit. Consolation prize announced this week -- controlling stake in Poland's largest convenience store operator. Biggest acquisition to date, really well run, should be quite accretive to earnings. 

Continues to execute its regular playbook -- procurement clout to price sharply on fuel, which draws consumers into its stores. Merchandise margins are 3-4x higher than what it earns on fuel. Yield is 0.93%.

Is a little expensive now, but is waiting for a lower price. Watch the chart. They recently benefited from the rise in oil prices.

Great job executing. Last quarter saw fuel margins higher plus great same-store sales growth, he expects that over next several quarters. 

His team just got back in after it walked away from the 7-Eleven deal. It's now sticking to its knitting. What's the knitting of ATD? Consolidating the market (only 5% US market share), as it's doing in Europe to add ~2-3% growth. Huge opportunities for continued acquisitions. Same-store sales growth of 2-3%. Revenue growth of ~6%. Yield is 0.96%.

Acting really well. Climbing up in the relative strength rankings, just moved up into the top 25% of stocks (the "green zone"). Most importantly, after the rally it's consolidating here near $90.

It's seen a 20% run from last year. Defensive characteristics, but yield is less than 1%. After 7-Eleven miss, now back to basics. She's nervous about the health of the consumer. Not on her radar.

They failed 7-11 takeover was an overhang and overall convenience store sales have been weak in the U.S. So, ATD is offering more fresh food and prepared meals in their stores. They are seeing good results. Also, they have benefited from the volatile gasoline market from the US-Iran war; they sourced from lower-cost places. He expects them to buy more stores.

Don't sell. Has shown over time to be an amazing competitor and acquirer in the space. Though not successful buying 7-Eleven, they were very patient to ensure not overpaying. Paying 17-19x PE for this grower has proven to be a good move.

A great, profitable business and is well-run. It will grow over time with the economy and any companies they buy.