Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp (AQN.TO)

The company blew up a few years ago but is now improving and has become a show-me stock. He would hold off buying for now but look at it again in six months to maybe start a position.

Sold off renewables (still owns some hydro), transitioning to pure-play utility. Stock was up 10% after last month's investor day, so it appears that investors believe in its back-to-basics strategy. Up 20% YTD, outperforming others. Demand for energy continues to increase. This company isn't going anywhere, and it has the best valuation amongst peers.

Turnaround story. She's holding, though may not own it forever.

Fallen angel. Always looks cheap on any metric. Built with unique assets spread out around the US, so not really an attractive takeover target. Don't hold your breath on that hope. Still slightly capital-constrained to be able to go after growth opportunities. Will be range bound, limited upside. Use pops in the stock to exit.

AQN is cheap, trading at 11.8X forward EV/EBITDA and 1.0X book. Its assets are likely worth more individually than its current market cap, making a good case for the sum-of-parts equation. But, management has recently outlined a plan to turn the company around, and acquirers generally don't like buying during recovery phases. We think if its price stagnates around these levels for several months, it would more likely become a takeover target. 
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He was talking just this morning to the fundamental analyst on this name, who's seeing signs of improving sentiment. Technically, starting to see the downtrend firm up across the entire space by putting in lows. Starting to see higher highs and higher lows.

Look at the 1-year chart. Big pop-up on earnings a couple of days ago. Definitely expect some near-term consolidation, but after that we're in an uptrend and he'd expect that to continue.

Working to transition to a pure-play utility, still holding onto small (3%) renewable hydro assets. New CEO and management team doing good job so far. Most utilities are in the US, with staggered and ongoing rate reset price increases. Likes it.

Estimates are 9.7c EPS and $651.8M revenue. The company has missed five of the past eight quarters. The stock is up 16% this year, as investors have shifted to safety and dividends. Valuation is still on the high side at 18X earnings. We would not miss it much if sold. We do not like making buy/sell decisions on one quarter, and would be fine exiting now. Getting a stock with 50% upside will add risks, and trying to 'replace' losses is not always advisable. We would prefer ENB in the utility-like sector, but for high growth we would look to CLS or SHOP or VHI, but only if one is comfortable with added volatility.
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Time to look at this name again. It's way, way down but with a much better growth profile. Good valuation.

Bounced off the bottom; actually one of the best-performing utilities because it traded so low for such a long time. Attempt to acquire Kentucky Power was bad timing with interest rates going up. Host of other issues, market penalized them, and it continues to do so.

But if you look at it today, it's working hard to transform itself to a pure-play distribution utility (similar to EMA or FTS). That's the cheapest type of utility to own. Sold renewable assets. Still owns hydro, but that's a small percentage of assets. Likes diversity of jurisdictions. About 10-20 rate cases under review; as they get approved, will see uptick in earnings. New CEO, activist investor.

Believes all the negative news is out of the name. If you have the patience, there's only upside from here. As company continues to execute, positive investor sentiment should come back. Different company than it was 2 years ago.

A tough one. A utility is supposed to be slow and steady, and they cut their dividend twice already. They had too much debt and sold assets to pay it down. The stock is now bouncing, and they pay some dividend, while the PE has changed a lot. Maybe the worst is over, but Fortis is a better choice.

Dividend investing is for 30, not  3 years, to survive ups and downs. AQN has been very difficult in the last 3-4 years. But new management has sold off their renewables business. Also, he's very positive with companies that have a lot of US business, like AQN. When a re-rate comes, things will start to move up all at once. He sees upside in AQN, though doesn't know where. His average cost base is $12, and he's been buying all along.

He has a small position, accumulating on weakness for the better part of 2024. The whole sector of alternative energy has taken a back seat with the Trump administration. The whole ESG segment has been underperforming. So it's definitely challenged. He doesn't know when a catalyst might arrive and bring this back to life.

With a name like this, you have to think about a 5-10 year horizon. As Buffett says, when there's blood in the street, that's where the opportunity is.

Definitely undervalued, trading at a lower multiple than peers. Lost all credibility. If it's in a non-registered account and you can bank the tax loss, sell. If in a registered account, perhaps wait until the new year because tax-loss selling may be putting extra pressure on the stock price right now; could see a bit of a bounce in the new year.

FTS and BIP.UN are his go-to names in the space.

Probably a more positive outlook for 2025 than in 2024. A warning for those who invest just for the dividend; high yield doesn't always mean the stock price is safe. Beaten up already, and then tax-loss season came along.

Peeling back the layers, it's still well run. At these levels, don't buy it for income. You're buying for growth. In the medium term, there are growth opportunities here.

He sold on the Kentucky Power acquisition attempt, a red flag. Stay away. Rudderless ship. Better opportunities out there.