Algonquin Power & Utilities CorpAQN.TOBUYApr 02, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 01, 2026. Market Open.
Pullback has to do with its debt level and rising interest rates. More volatile than you'd expect for a utility, partly to do with projects its won/lost. Nice dividend. If you want capital appreciation, may need to manage your position. If you're in it for the income, the income is there.
He owns no utility names right now, based solely on interest rates moving up.
Rates going up will affect utilities. Algonquin Power will keep its TSX listing and will get some US index inclusion. The price is attractive and the dividend yield is 5%. It will take a while for the company to clean itself up but it has started to do so and one day the issues will be better. He is topping up.
Continues working through a multi-year turnaround. Now mostly a regulated utility providing natural gas, water, and electricity. Positive that management's returned focus to simpler utility operations. New, approved utility rates are helping earnings. More than 80% of operations in US, HQ plans to move to US (reduce taxes, attract more US investors).
Debt remains extremely high, earnings growth still modest. She's just monitoring, needs to see more execution.
He owns a preferred share. AQN's problem is the debt from all their acquisitions back in the day; interest rates hit them hard and forced a dividend cut. They sold their renewables business. Then, shares fell after an earnings report that lowered their 2027 profit guidance. AQN now focuses on gas, water and electric services. The street is saying to them, "Prove to me you can make money again." It's sitting in the penalty box waiting for management to show a positive move.
They spent a lot to enter the renewables space and overlevered the balance sheet. That was a disaster. They've been cleaning that up to be a pure-play utility, which is a predictable business that investors like. They have completely new leadership and have reset. This offers safe, predictable income.
Bounced off the bottom; actually one of the best-performing utilities because it traded so low for such a long time. Attempt to acquire Kentucky Power was bad timing with interest rates going up. Host of other issues, market penalized them, and it continues to do so.
But if you look at it today, it's working hard to transform itself to a pure-play distribution utility (similar to EMA or FTS). That's the cheapest type of utility to own. Sold renewable assets. Still owns hydro, but that's a small percentage of assets. Likes diversity of jurisdictions. About 10-20 rate cases under review; as they get approved, will see uptick in earnings. New CEO, activist investor.
Believes all the negative news is out of the name. If you have the patience, there's only upside from here. As company continues to execute, positive investor sentiment should come back. Different company than it was 2 years ago.