Jerome HassAlgonquin Power & Utilities CorpAQN.TOCOMMENTDec 29, 2016

Hasn't run up as much as PPL, so it's a name you can add to.

He owns a preferred share. AQN's problem is the debt from all their acquisitions back in the day; interest rates hit them hard and forced a dividend cut. They sold their renewables business. Then, shares fell after an earnings report that lowered their 2027 profit guidance. AQN now focuses on gas, water and electric services. The street is saying to them, "Prove to me you can make money again." It's sitting in the penalty box waiting for management to show a positive move.

It's one of the weaker utility stocks. The chart is choppy. It has resistance from late-2023 and has a hard time breaking that level, just south of $9. It will likely be rangebound. If you don't mind that, you can just collect the dividend.

There is hope. They are now focused on regulated utilities and are out of renewables, which didn't work out. They're under-earning what they are allowed to make, due to government strictures. The opportunity ahead is for them to increase their profitability both internally and what they're allowed.

Sold most of its renewables business. Coming out of some very dark years. Continues to put $$ in. Attractive looking out 5 years as new management regains footing and builds confidence with investors. Will grind higher. Yield is ~5%.

They've had several problems in recent years, but after selling their renewable business, they are on track to be a regulated utility. They have many US operations. Owns another utility. AQN lowered guidance for tax reasons.

Lots of issues over the years. Still in a big restructuring phase. Better companies to own for dividends. Yield is 4.3%.

Very tough couple of years. Looking better technically. But other names have better growth stories and valuations.

Look at CPX.

They spent a lot to enter the renewables space and overlevered the balance sheet. That was a disaster. They've been cleaning that up to be a pure-play utility, which is a predictable business that investors like. They have completely new leadership and have reset. This offers safe, predictable income. 

Nice beat last quarter. Energy infrastructure is a good theme. Management has righted the ship. Recent upgrade is justified. He's been buying since $6-7. Trades at 13x 2027 earnings (cheaper than peers), modelling ~14% EPS growth. Six analyst upgrades over last 30 days. Nice dividend. 

It could be a takeover target, though she doesn't own it for this reason. It did well last year, up 40%, but lagged its peers. It has a history of two dividend cuts. They've done a good job cleaning up the company by selling their renewables and are keeping hydro assets for now to become a pure-play utility. They are doing the right things. It's a new, different company now. Is the cheapest pure-play utility in Canada now. Is very bullish with utilities given data centres and the move away from fossil fuels.

They've gone through a serious transformation including cutting their dividend. An activist has come in so that the company focuses on AQN's core utility business. It's improving, and doing fine compared to other utilities. The turnaround has been successful.

It has had its difficulties. It sold its renewables and is more a utility company now and therefore more defensive. She is not sure what the dividend outlook is . She owns a different utility.

Likes this chart a lot -- it's a head-and-shoulders bottom. The head is at the end of 2024, with a shoulder at the end of 2023 and again at the end of 2025. A really strong technical base, creeping up on the neckline closer to $9. Looks ready to break out of the base. Very constructive and encouraging.

In general, renewables are starting to come back.

Follows both, has owned both in the past but not today. Quickest answer is not to invest in either. 

The reason against BCE is its growth profile. See his Top Picks for BIP.UN, an income name with a much stronger growth profile at a very attractive valuation.