American TowerAMTCOMMENTJun 28, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 07, 2026. Market Open.
Cell phone tower owner/operator - leases out to providers. Very good business as towers don't need to be re-developed. Able to grow earnings at a consistent basis. A little bit more debt than is preferred, but with falling interest rates - will be good for business. Good time to invest in company, and has been buying shares.
As a REIT, some benefit with respect to rate expectations. Just sold tower business in India, which was an overhang, using proceeds to reduce leverage. Capital allocation moving towards developed (away from developing) countries, which adds certainty, higher inflation protection, and more data. Yield is 2.7%.
(Analysts’ price target is $237.64)AMT is a $77.5B REIT which pays a 3.8% yield. Forward sales and earnings estimates are decent, and its historical growth rates are strong. Its margins have been weakening over the past few years and its valuation has come down alongside the rapid rise in interest rates. It generates good free cash flows, which are partly used for distributions and partially for paying down debt. It has a good balance sheet, and it is fundamentally strong, but its valuations are somewhat high and declining based on competition from other high-yielding assets with much less risk such as GICs and high-interest savings accounts. We feel that a catalyst that could help its share price is interest rates stalling or even declining. The central banks indicating that they are done with hiking interest rates can act as a catalyst for AMT and other REITs.
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Although a REIT, it can generally be grouped into technology, which tends to do well from September until the end of the year. Average gain on a seasonal perspective is about 10%. Yesterday, this gapped higher. When you have these " gap moves higher", it acts as a point of support for any retracement. It pulled back today and is testing that level of support. That is a level you want to be shooting off of. If it trades below that, trim your positions and look to the less cyclical parts of the market. Right now, there is support at the 20-day moving average and the moving averages are still moving higher. There could be a slight retracement, but everything looks positive on a long-term basis.