Andrey Omelchak Air Canada AC-T DON'T BUY Apr 01, 2025

One of the most economically sensitive names. To buy now, you need a rosy economic outlook but uncertainty is squashing that. Valuation's come down massively. High fixed costs. Not enough defense as we stare down a recession.

A high-risk opportunity. Traffic to US is down. In the US travel is down, but revenues are up because people are paying for executive class. AC can do the same thing. Tariff noise will soon abate.

Airlines are a a very tough business to invest in. Highly volatile, highly levered. Not for him. He likes recurring revenue, visibility on revenue, and easy to play. You're flipping a coin.

It is trading near the levels seen at the early stages of the pandemic. Trade war fears have dragged down the airlines but this is overdone. Air Canada is at an 80% booking level which is normal. Its flights to the U.S. are down but international business is strong. It makes more money on international flights than domestic. The price is still OK.                             Buy 14  Hold 2  Sell 1

Notoriously terrible businesses. Tight margins, large capex. Travel slows down in tough economic times. Non-sustainable business model for long-term growth. Trying so hard to raise fees on everything. Avoid all airlines.

Started to put in a bit of a bottom a couple of months ago, as did many other airlines. This name's had a big move higher. There are 2 ways to consolidate: in price (sharp pullback) or in time (move sideways). Thinks we'll see consolidation at least for a bit, perhaps with a slight downward bias. (In tech analysis it's called a "flag".) Once done, it should resume the uptrend and move higher.

Once we get into August, put on the brakes or at least assess the risk.