John O'Connell, CFABarrick MiningABX.TODON'T BUYSep 10, 2012

Still likes gold right now.

She owns ABX, WPM, and some ETFs. No longer just an inflationary story, as central banks continue to buy. Still works as a diversifier and as portfolio insurance. Tends to benefit when uncertainty rises, and she expects a lot of that for at least the next 6-8 months.

Yes, the logic is to isolate the part of the business that's less risky from the rest. With the Middle East conflict, there's been more focus for commodities in safe and reliable jurisdictions. Sector's still expensive.

Doesn't like miners as an investment -- not a good enough business that delivers high enough ROIC.

ABX and AEM are the top 2 gold companies in Canada. He'd lean more toward AEM.

Quality story, not just a trade. One of her core gold holdings. Strategically positioned globally. Tier 1 assets. Flagship joint venture with NGT in Nevada. Their discipline sets them apart. Balance sheet gives them flexibility. 

Growing copper exposure adds structural tailwind tied to electrification and infrastructure demand. Her price target is ~$80. Ranks 10/10 on fundamentals. Yield is 4.28%.

Performed extremely well given rise in gold prices. Recently performance has become exponential, so that's a concern. 

Instead, he owns silver bullion. Has done well, but volatility in January. Silver outperformed gold this past year, and has many industrial uses.

Based on price of gold over last quarter, earnings should be good. He'd anticipate that they're mining as much as possible right now. On the other side, stock price already reflects the good times.

Stock's trading off a bit today, perhaps as investors wait for tomorrow. Just as with tech companies, earnings these days don't just need to be good, they need to be perfect.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Still #1 in his Canadian RSI rankings. It had been so beaten down for so long, and then it finally broke out. It's come back into the sunshine with a fantastic catchup rally. Market seems to be pretty happy with change in leadership, as the technicals remain positive.

This name ranks right at the top of his rankings along with the other gold stocks. Hard for him to give specific advice on an investor's holding without knowing how it fits into the whole portfolio. Increase in the price of gold is increasing the earnings potential of a lot of the gold companies.

If that starts to change, that's when he'd look to remove those positions and go somewhere else. Short-term volatility in gold can be fairly severe, as we saw with yesterday's move. It can be unnerving.

Has lagged peers forever, now starting to get noticed. Started picking up and breaking out. Next resistance is ~$50-55. Looks incredible technically. Yield is 1.75%.

Coincidence that both CEOs of the 2 largest gold producers are leaving. 

ABX was starting to show momentum, a couple of good quarters of meeting and beating expectations. Nevada Complex tour went well, with analysts raising targets. So the timing is odd.

Is bullish gold and sees the price continue to rise, but Barrick has climbed this year only because of the gold price. They lag in production growth and have a weaker valuation. If you own, sell this and buy other gold names.

Problems in Mali, and company's short-term performance depends on that outcome. High operating costs in Nevada goldfields. Has decided to be a mining company rather than a gold mining company, which an increasing amount of revenue coming from copper. Much growth will come from Pakistan project, which he likes but the market doesn't.

Still digesting all its M&A. Mines located in places with higher geopolitical risk. Good run because gold's had a good run. Instead, she owns AEM.

Has some hair on it, but pretty cheap. His guess is that in the next month or so, Trump's going to roll back a lot of stuff and the economy will be better. So areas like gold are going to sell off.

Ran into a real meat grinder with an African government (a military dictatorship). Shows the difference between those jurisdictions that are safe and those that aren't. Has NA holdings too, so it's not the end of the world. Stock's cheap. Not a bad buy if gold keeps on moving (which he expects).