Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (AAV.TO) Buy, Sell or…

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Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (AAV.TO)

11.13

+0.18 (1.64%)

as of Aug 26, 2026, 8:00:01 pm Market Open.

83 watching

Investor Insights

Aug 26, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 4 opinions in the last 12 months.

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (AAV-T) primarily focuses on natural gas, with about 85% of its production coming from this resource. Despite its potential, the stock is viewed as a massive underperformer in the market, especially compared to its peers, and is not seen as a compelling valuation currently. The company is under strategic review, indicating they might be exploring a sale, but this process is taking longer than anticipated. The newly appointed interim CEO raises questions about the company’s direction, and while some experts believe it could offer upside if natural gas prices rise, it is also noted that it lacks a dividend and is less safe compared to others in the sector like TOU. Overall, interest in the stock hinges heavily on the future trajectory of natural gas prices.

Consensus

Mixed

Valuation

Overvalued

Similar

TOU,TOU

HOLD

Has been completely restructured. Has a very attractive land spread in the Montney's. As the gas market focuses on resource plays they could capitalize on this or be taken over. The next 3 months could be a problem for the gas market.

DON'T BUY

Turning into a corporation and cut the distributions to zero. Had to sell off a bunch of assets to pay off debt. There are a lot of better opportunities in the oil patch.

DON'T BUY

Double whammy in that it is natural gas focused and has a lot of leverage. Have a number of convertible debentures that are due to mature in the next 3 years, particularly 2009. Chances of refinancing are pretty limited.

WAIT

Did the right thing in substantially cutting its distribution to live within its means. Near-term issue with some convertible debt that needs to be rolled over and thinks the market is concerned that it will be refinanced with shares so would wait for some clarity. Pretty good asset base.

HOLD

(Market Call Minute.) Reasonable yield. If oil/gas can turn around in the next little bit, it looks good. If not you are in the glue.

COMMENT

You have to be satisfied that oil prices are going to hang around $50-$70 over the next 5 years. Also, will the government do anything about income trusts in the next budget?

DON'T BUY

Primarily weighted to natural gas. Traditionally has a higher payout ratio and higher debt level. There are names that could hold up better in a difficult environment.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Higher risk name, but he would buy some in the hopes that we get a cold winter and natural prices firm up.

COMMENT

Gas weighted. Could be a takeover candidate. If this is a loss in a taxable account, consider selling and putting the proceeds into one that is a little stronger. If non-taxable, wait for 12 to 18 months to see if you can get 20% to 30% back.

COMMENT

Roughly 60% gas and 40% oil. About 70% payout ratio. Prefers other trusts in this area. At present natural gas prices, he would be concerned about the distribution.

COMMENT

No disasters and mild winters have hit natural gas. For the stock to do well, gas would have to go to $9 or $10 and you'd have to have the Cdn$ come off.

COMMENT

3 gas-weighted companies that he feels will cut distributions are Trilogy (TET.UN-T), Advantage Energy (AVN.UN-T) and Prime West (PWI.UN-T).

HOLD

Wouldn't be at the top of his trust list. If you own, Hold as there is more positive than negative ahead.

DON'T BUY

About 75% natural gas. In the past, have relied on equity issuances, buying additional companies to increase production. The only way to survive is to add production through the drill bit.

SELL

Have cut distributions twice in the last couple of months. This is one of the more unsustainable models. There are better quality oil/gas trusts available.

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Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd (AAV.TO)