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Today, Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA commented about whether CASH, T-T, UL-N, BHC-T, TSLA-Q, UGA-N, BAM-N, CM-T, XLI-N, VRSK -Q, RAVN-Q, CLPBY-OTC, TD-T, MSFT-Q, GOOG-Q, AC-T, GE-N, PPL-T, TIH-T are stocks to buy or sell.

COMMENT

Market Outlook(A Commentary)

01/04/2020
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Market Outlook He thinks there is crisis on three fronts: health, economic, and financial. The government was a little late to get the virus contained, but he is seeing indications that curve is not rising as quickly. From an economic and financial crisis place, the government was quick to respond -- dusting off the 2008 crisis aid book. It will take time to work through the system. For him, he wonders if this is enough? Does the government have anything left? Interest rates are effectively zero and they released the bazooka on financial relief. He is hearing up to 6 million jobs may have been lost this week in the US. People need to be defensive right now. There is going to be trouble in the Canadian oil patch for sure. Risk management is more important than ever -- this includes defensive stocks, bonds and even cash. He is sitting with short term cash as a tactical holding, so they can purchase equities at lower prices.
Unknown
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
N/A
Unknown
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BUY ON WEAKNESS

Toromont Industries(TIH-T)

01/04/2020
Toromont Industries

He holds this one since 2015 and no intention to sell. They hold the rights to Caterpillar dealerships, now into Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Most of their revenues come from mining, construction and farming. Fiscal stimulus could aid infrastructure, so construction could also do well. Mining should be okay for precious metals. The management team is focused on free cash flow and growing the dividend -- up 15% per year over the past 5 years. There is more downward price action in the market, so he would think about putting in buy orders about 15% below current levels.

machinery
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$61.650
Owned
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COMMENT

Bonds?(A Commentary)

01/04/2020
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert
Bonds? Bonds are an important part of a portfolio as they have half the volatility of stocks in times of stress. With interest rates effectively at zero it is tougher. Big institutional players have been forced to raise cash, making inventory of bonds available that are investment grade. Yields of 3-5% are available for A or AA rated companies.
Unknown
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
N/A
Unknown
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PARTIAL SELL

Pembina Pipeline Corp(PPL-T)

01/04/2020
Pembina Pipeline Corp
They are somewhat insulated from the oil price declines. However, with so much oil supply in the market flooding in from Russia and Saudi Arabia, at some point storage will be full and this will not be a good situation. The risk lies with commitments made by producers for their services. Yes, they will get some relief in bankruptcy court if their customer fails, but it will take time. They are staying away from energy right now. If you own this, he would suggest selling half and wait for improvement.
pipelines
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$26.400
No
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DON'T BUY

General Electric(GE-N)

01/04/2020
General Electric
He is not investing in GE as it has fallen from grace in the past few years. A text book example of a value trap and a company that has taken on too much debt. If revenues fall, they will see free cash flow evaporate.
electrical / electronic
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$7.265
No
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DON'T BUY

Air Canada(AC-T)

01/04/2020
Air Canada
There is not enough clarity in the airline sector and there is more capacity coming online. There will be a long wait until passengers will feel as safe to share their space on planes. He would not buy this. Even if they cut costs, they will not have the revenues to drive free cash flow.
Transportation
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$15.750
No
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COMMENT

Alphabet Inc(GOOG-Q)

01/04/2020
Alphabet Inc

GOOG vs MSFT? The challenge with GOOG is that 40-50% ad spend comes from small businesses. He expects small business will be struggling for revenue for the next few months. He would not be a buyer of GOOG. He does not own MSFT, but would prefer them over GOOG. MSFT has a very successful cloud service and he sees Teams being a good add to their revenue right now.

Technology
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$1105.400
Unknown
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COMMENT

Microsoft Corp(MSFT-Q)

01/04/2020
Microsoft Corp

GOOG vs MSFT? The challenge with GOOG is that 40-50% ad spend comes from small businesses. He expects small business will be struggling for revenue for the next few months. He would not be a buyer of GOOG. He does not own MSFT, but would prefer them over GOOG. MSFT has a very successful cloud service and he sees Teams being a good add to their revenue right now.

computer software / processing
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$153.005
Unknown
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PARTIAL BUY

Toronto Dominion(TD-T)

01/04/2020
Toronto Dominion
US acquisitions? He likes holding this and it is the only holding in the banking space they own. The correlation risk of banks to the market scares them. The US market drives about one-third of their revenue. Their wealth management and retail business sets them up well for when the economic recovery takes hold. At today's prices you are getting about a 5.5% yield. This is a good opportunity to buy, especially when interest rates are close to zero. He cautions that the market could go lower, so he would suggest a partial buy.
banks
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$59.830
Owned
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PAST TOP PICK

Coloplast A/S(CLPBY-OTC)

01/04/2020
Coloplast A/S
(A Top Pick Jan 13/20, Up 21%) A Danish company specializing in incontinence and other medical products. A good defensive holding. They are expecting to cut revenues by 4-6%, but their margins are remaining strong as they commit to cut costs.
Healthcare
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
N/A
Owned
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PAST TOP PICK

Raven Industries(RAVN-Q)

01/04/2020
Raven Industries
(A Top Pick Jan 13/20, Down 41%) An industrial company selling into the oil and gas and agriculture sectors. At the end of the day, people will still need to eat. As a small cap company it has been more volatile. This adds some diversification when recovery comes.
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$20.150
Owned
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PAST TOP PICK

Verisk Analytics(VRSK -Q)

01/04/2020
Verisk Analytics
(A Top Pick Jan 13/20, Down 13%) They sell about 10% of their revenue from the oil and gas sector, but the majority comes from the insurance space. They offer a service that helps insurance companies price risk. Over the long term, they will do fine.
0
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$140.290
Owned
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DON'T BUY

Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI-N)

01/04/2020
Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund
ETFs do offer a basket of stocks, but we are going to see pressure on free cash flows in revenues for these companies. Quality of individual companies will be very important going forward. Holding ETFs may prove to be a disservice going forward. Analysts are expecting the Industrial sector earnings to be off 20% in Q2 -- second worst, only to energy down 27%. This is not a sector he is interested in right now. He would prefer to wait and pick up individual companies when the recovery begins.
E.T.F.'s
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$56.250
No
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COMMENT

Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce(CM-T)

01/04/2020
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
Preferred shares? He holds preferreds for their clients. These are senior to common stock and are more risky than bonds. The preferred market is unique to Canada and lacks liquidity at times. The yields are very attractive at 6% or higher. Just be careful of the difference between the "rate reset" offerings that renew their dividends based on the Bank of Canada interest rates. He would suggest owing the perpetual shares instead that have a constant dividend.
banks
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$82.000
Owned
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HOLD

Brookfield Asset Management Inc.(BAM-N)

01/04/2020
Brookfield Asset Management Inc.
A quality company that he holds. They buy distressed debt and are a private asset and infrastructure manager. They do not mark to market their assets as much as common stock companies so it reduces their volatility somewhat. The dividend is growing, although it is a little low.
management / diversified
Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA
$42.480
Owned
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