Market Outlook The markets have never correctly so quickly in history. The TSX is off 30% from its highs. Technically this is a bear market since we have already fallen over 20%. There is still uncertainty with COVID-19, especially with machine driven investing systems being popular. China is starting to recover and stores like Starbucks and Apple are almost completely re-opened. We need to still see policy statements from the government to compensate employees who will be impacted here at home. She sees more scenarios where negative growth will impact Canada for the next few quarters, making a recession more likely -- especially with the plunge in oil prices.
This has been hurt badly due to the virus. They had a good last quarter. She would continue to hold it. The risk of regulatory concern is lower too now that Biden looks like the likely Democrat candidate.
They closed on an acquisition in November. The open pit, above ground operation they bought is not being well received and they have also had to take a reserve write-down on their existing mines. If you own it, keep holding it. She is not a buyer or gold stocks -- she prefers to own a royalty company instead.
As China was a growth place for them the virus has impacted them. It has always traded at a high multiple and this now coming down; however, there are just so many other opportunities out there. She also does not like how so much of their items are sold at airports.
All the midstream companies were hit hard yesterday -- down almost 20%. She does not own it, but would recommend continuing to hold it as the yield is attractive.
Bank dividends? The dividends are safe for the Canadian banks she thinks. The payout ratio is only 45-50%. Banks will increase their dividends similar to their earnings growth she believes -- around 5% a year. If earnings contract, they will likely keep dividends flat (three years during the last financial crisis).
They have low price points and do well during recessions. She owns a different store based in the US instead. She would hold it if you own it, but at 21 times earnings, she would not be buying yet.
The valuation multiple has been very low for a while, but they have a lot of exposure to Asia for growth. They are spending a lot as they convert towards electric vehicles. She is cautious about the dividend yield being sustainable. This is not a sector or a company they are putting money into.
Yield 11%
Time to buy? We won't when volatility has peaked until we know more about the infection rates in China with COVID-19. In the past couple of days the market correction has been severe and she now sees opportunities and is buying at a measured pace.
(A Top Pick Mar 12/19, Down 30%) It has been hit hard. The CEO indicates the trends are moving in the right direction. None of their facilities had any COVID-19 outbreaks (as of late February).
Fiscal stimulation We will want to hear the details from the Federal Finance Minister regarding support for workers who will be make unemployed by COVID-19 and what the reactions have been from the other G7 countries.