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COMMENT
June 7, 2019
This morning's jobs data: June will be too soon for an interest rate cut, but likely one or two later this year by the US Fed. It'm impossible to know what's inside Trump's head. Tech is insulated from interest rate moves. With rate cuts, we're back to slow, muddled growth. As a result, tech will benefit, because investors want to invest in growth, which tech offers. Within tech, semis are exposed to China which, of course, are now effected by trade talks.
This morning's jobs data: June will be too soon for an interest rate cut, but likely one or two later this year by the US Fed. It'm impossible to know what's inside Trump's head. Tech is insulated from interest rate moves. With rate cuts, we're back to slow, muddled growth. As a result, tech will benefit, because investors want to invest in growth, which tech offers. Within tech, semis are exposed to China which, of course, are now effected by trade talks.
Robert Lauzon
Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital Corporation
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 7, 2019
Self-driving cars There's been a lot of misinformation, partially from Elon Musk. We're a long way from self-driving, but robo-taxis in select markets are starting this year from Google's Waymo. The important thing is that these cars need extremely detailed maps, like where every street and shop sign is; people jaywalk; or a blind driveway. The car needs a processor needs to read other cars and people crossing the street. Google is testing this now in 25 cities and buildings these super-detailed maps. It's a potentially huge market, double-trillion-dollar globally. Also, a self-driving taxi's cost is 75% lower than a human-driven taxi. Five years from now, robo taxis will be widely used.
Self-driving cars There's been a lot of misinformation, partially from Elon Musk. We're a long way from self-driving, but robo-taxis in select markets are starting this year from Google's Waymo. The important thing is that these cars need extremely detailed maps, like where every street and shop sign is; people jaywalk; or a blind driveway. The car needs a processor needs to read other cars and people crossing the street. Google is testing this now in 25 cities and buildings these super-detailed maps. It's a potentially huge market, double-trillion-dollar globally. Also, a self-driving taxi's cost is 75% lower than a human-driven taxi. Five years from now, robo taxis will be widely used.
Robert Lauzon
Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital Corporation
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 7, 2019
Tech staples (that his company runs in a fund) vs. consumer staples The market keeps giving above-market multiples in consumer staples like Coke, because they're safe and defensive, but tech is growing 17% a year and is trading cheaper than the consumer staples. He thinks tech stocks are not expensive and should compliment utility stocks in a portfiolio. Also, he expects tech stocks like Google to pay a dividend in coming years. Tech stocks have huge runway ahead of them, namely in digital advertising, as well as in healthcare and financial services. Amazon and Apple are going hard into e-payments. They also have gobs of cash and little debt.
Tech staples (that his company runs in a fund) vs. consumer staples The market keeps giving above-market multiples in consumer staples like Coke, because they're safe and defensive, but tech is growing 17% a year and is trading cheaper than the consumer staples. He thinks tech stocks are not expensive and should compliment utility stocks in a portfiolio. Also, he expects tech stocks like Google to pay a dividend in coming years. Tech stocks have huge runway ahead of them, namely in digital advertising, as well as in healthcare and financial services. Amazon and Apple are going hard into e-payments. They also have gobs of cash and little debt.
Robert Lauzon
Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Middlefield Capital Corporation
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 7, 2019
After the Dec. 24 low, the market ran ahead and corrected, but stayed above that--that was really positive. This has been a great week, but it will be a little harder. The VIX was up today. Copper and energy stocks aren't participating in the current rally. Bonds are overdone now, but the markets won't take off until copper (connected to China) and energy rev up. Keep an eye on the 10-year rate which influences all, including home mortgages. He doubts we'll see a rate cut from the US Fed in June. We're at a seminal moment. The 10-year yield could increase, likely gradually. The economic backdrop is not terrible; Canada's job numbers are strong and our rate could actually increase.
After the Dec. 24 low, the market ran ahead and corrected, but stayed above that--that was really positive. This has been a great week, but it will be a little harder. The VIX was up today. Copper and energy stocks aren't participating in the current rally. Bonds are overdone now, but the markets won't take off until copper (connected to China) and energy rev up. Keep an eye on the 10-year rate which influences all, including home mortgages. He doubts we'll see a rate cut from the US Fed in June. We're at a seminal moment. The 10-year yield could increase, likely gradually. The economic backdrop is not terrible; Canada's job numbers are strong and our rate could actually increase.
Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI
Chief Portfolio Manager & Founder, Castlemoore Inc.
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 7, 2019
Gold Gold is hitting resistance now at $1,351, very much linked to the strong USD--the market is telling us to own gold. (Gold) producers usually lead the price of the commodity, both the upside and downside. We have a breakout now in those producers, so he predicts a breakout in gold itself.
Gold Gold is hitting resistance now at $1,351, very much linked to the strong USD--the market is telling us to own gold. (Gold) producers usually lead the price of the commodity, both the upside and downside. We have a breakout now in those producers, so he predicts a breakout in gold itself.
Hap (Robert) Sneddon FCSI
Chief Portfolio Manager & Founder, Castlemoore Inc.