Stockchase Opinions

Robert Lauzon Micron Technology MU-Q WAIT Jun 07, 2019

It's done poorly this year, because it's a semi producer due to the China trade war. 30% of their business lies in smartphone memory, so if the trade war gets drastic (which he doubts), MU will get hit. The market is pricing no growth. PE is low-single-digit. This is a $60 stock, really. 5G will drive this as people upgrade their phones. This can easily rise 10-15% in a market rally. It may be early to enter it now, though. The mass-market shift to 5G will happen in 2020-1.
$33.990

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TRADE

The market and Micron are getting toppy. This can go down to $80, no problem. This is a trade, not investment.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 07/24, Down 22%)

He's done with memory stocks. The industry has only a few dominant players, and this name is one of them. Yet, there's still crazy cyclicality and it's hard to be differentiated.

TRADE

It plays in memory and storage tech, and is really cyclical. He targets $142. It doesn't compete with TSMC, very agonistic, because they are a factory and don't design chips.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

They just reported a strong quarter. But shares have run $60 to $126 and can't go higher. 

PARTIAL BUY

Up 10% the past month. It ran up huge into the quarter, but has since gone done. We've seen this pattern better.  Buy some tomorrow, then wait for a 10% interval to buy more.

WAIT

Up 13% in the last 6 months. The stock is inexpensive, but the chart tells him to wait. It had a good run, and now the market says it looks bad.

PARTIAL BUY

It has two businesses. One is high-bandwidth memory which goes into data centres, and two is DRAM which is having poor pricing. You need DRAM pricing to rebound, though you can buy a few shares now.

TOP PICK

Not a direct competitor to NVDA, but very strong in DRAM and NAND markets. Impressed by mid-quarter update which boosted earnings projections by 10-15% for the quarter. Cheaper than peers in the space, could be re-rated when the market wakes up to that. 

Another way to access and get excited about the AI buildout. Yield is 0.38%.

(Analysts’ price target is $150.70)
Unspecified

He has invested in it in the past. AI demand for memory is accelerating so it is well positioned. Can be considered an oligarchy and should continue to do well.

WAIT

Likes the CEO, who is prudent and cautious, but the stock has run up 80% this year. Reports next week.