PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 02/24, Up 11%)

Last September, he sold and took profits. Shares are trading ~24x forward PE, for 5% EPS growth. Valuation's expensive. EPS growth rate expectations have come down. Cautious spending by consumers, stock's slipped below 200-day MA. Long-term inflation is dampening the DIYers, sluggish home sales. A name to own early economic cycle, and we're about mid-way through now.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 02/24, Up 36%)

Aging demographics will help. Rising 200-day and 200-week MAs. Beat last quarter, raised full-year guidance. 20x forward PE for 14-15% growth rate, a great PEG ratio.

WAIT

Major leader in the Medicare space. Recent rare miss on earnings, and he sold just before. Shares now well below 200-day MA, which is starting to trend down a little bit. Earnings growth rate now 6-7% going forward, at 14x forward PE.

Very oversold, around 25 RSI. At some point, shares will bottom and move higher. Be careful, shares seem to be in freefall right now. Doesn't see any major support levels. Wait for an opportunity, once it starts swinging up for real.

WATCH

Valuation is compelling, but offset by weak sector sentiment involving global macro economic concerns, tariffs, possible downturns. Trades at a very cheap 3x enterprise value over EBITDA, with 12% FCF yield. Watch the technicals and the macro trends for a turnaround.

SELL

Quite the high flyer. Valuation of 177x forward PE keeps him at bay. EPS forecast growth rate ~31%. Priced for perfection. Decent numbers at last report, guided higher, yet shares fell -- sign that investors are looking for results beyond perfection. Near all-time highs. Heavy reliance on large government contracts.

DON'T BUY

Portfolio of low-beta stocks. Consumer staples, some financials, utilities. MER is 39 bps, not exactly cheap but not overly expensive. For the investor looking for dividends plus a low ride in the equity market. 

Consumer staples and utilities in Canada aren't cheap right now, as people flock to safety. At some point, investors will move away from the safe stuff and more into risk-on equities like technology, financials, and industrials. He's not in the recession camp right now, so he wouldn't want to hold a big chunk of consumer staples.

HOLD
Average down?

The expectation is for a dividend cut of nearly 50% starting this month. We'll see if that happens. Technically, shares are having a rough go below both the 200-day and 200-week MAs. Earnings growth is sub-standard, even negative.

So, no, he wouldn't add at this stage. At some point, things could turn around a little bit.  Yield is 13.3% (would still be attractive even with a 50% cut). If you own, you can hold.

DON'T BUY

Trading ~37x forward PE, for 15% EPS growth. Below 200-day MA, but so is much of the market. Customer concentration risk; any capex pullback by hyperscalers can significantly impact results. Be careful. Faces strong competition.

BUY

Chart looks great. Above 200-day and 200-week MAs, which are both moving higher. Not explosive growth, but steady eddy instead. 11-12x forward PE. Pretty decent dividend of 4%.

PARTIAL SELL

Basically owns big US utilities, with about 80% in electric. ETF hasn't been around even a year, launching in December 2024 or so. Utilities have done well on the flight to safety this year. But is market reverting to risk-on assets in tech, financials, or industrials? Yes, it really has in the last month, but will that continue? Yield is ~2%.

A safe space, and you'll make money. But he thinks we're mid-cycle with more room to run in the secular bull market for industrials, financials, and tech.

DON'T BUY

Below 200-day MA; also moving below 200-week MA, which is trending lower. Need interest rates to come down for this sector to do well. Yield is 7.64%, and that dividend could ease going forward. Tough space.

TOP PICK

Developed markets outside NA. Most investors are not diversified enough outside the US and Canada. International markets are on a bit of a tear YTD, up ~14%. Valuations are cheaper in these markets, greater shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. Soft US dollar helps international markets. MER is 0.70%.

TOP PICK

"The AMZN of Latin America", without the cloud business. Largest online e-commerce and payments ecosystem in the region, active in 18 countries. Valuation's not all that bad. The fintech arm is growing faster than the e-commerce side. Shares trending higher since mid-2022. EPS growth rate forecast at 35%. One of the top EM growth stories out there. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $2535.46)
TOP PICK

Reliable name. Vast network, trusted brand, unmatched scale. Move from cash to digital payments. Consumer spending remains pretty solid in US. Cross-border transactions remain strong. Pretty capital light, which means very strong free cashflows. About 13% annual growth rate, paying a slight premium for the name. 

Recently bounced off 200-day MA very nicely, so it's a pretty good technical setup going forward. Yield is 0.68%.

(Analysts’ price target is $382.62)
HOLD
Apple reports that Google searches fell for the very first time on Apple's browser. Google shares slide 7.5%.

He just heard the news, so he is avoiding a knee-jerk reaction either way. He is holding on for now. His position is not set in stone. This isn't the first threat to Google.