HOLD

Likes the breakout. His #2 choice in the space, behind FFH at #1, but ahead of SLF.

COMMENT

His #3 choice in the space, behind MFC at #2, and FFH at #1.

TOP PICK

Diversified, high-luxury company. Toll road for high luxury, and that runs through China (1/3 of its customer base). A clean, quality, Chinese consumer proxy. More to go if you think the China stimulus is real. (Price target in euros.) Yield is 1.9%.

If the Chinese stimulus is not that effective, he's less positive on it, as that's this stock's biggest driver. It is a higher-risk proxy, but his other Top Picks are low beta to compensate.

(Analysts’ price target is $762.78)
TOP PICK

Regulatory issues on debit may affect how it does business, but this globally diversified company can manage it. Tactical opportunity to buy more and average into a compelling, long-term opportunity. Reasonable market multiple. Benefits from cash-to-card and push payments. Yield is 0.8%.

(Analysts’ price target is $308.42)
TOP PICK

Sole source for low-value components, like bathrooms and seatbelts, in high-value aircraft. Aircraft fleets are getting older. Airline miles continue to grow. Great compounder, best position in its value chain. 

No dividend, but it does have regular cash and special dividends, which speaks to management quality. If management can't find a good acquisition, it diverts the cash to shareholders instead.

(Analysts’ price target is $1451.95)
COMMENT

The US Fed's Jay Powell said today that he isn't rushing to cut rates, but will be more aggressive if the data warrants it (if the labour market weakens dramatically)...  re: Israel killed the Hezbollah leader which could escalate Middle East tensions: Tension will continue until Iran's government changes.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He's a dip-buyer of gold and a royalty name like has more correlation on the gold price than a miner like Barrick.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He questions 10-30 years from now if their distribution of goods through gas stations will exist. They missed their last 3 earnings reports. In the mid-$60s he might buy, but currently he won't. He doesn't like ATD long term.

COMMENT
Buying a deep-in-the-money call as a strategy

Yes, he likes this strategy, because it puts less capital at risk. Buying such an option is deep in the money, and you can put the rest of the money in cash to earn income, for example.

DON'T BUY

It pays over a 6% dividend yield, but this is less than what this ETF is earning. Doesn't like this. Are better ways to earn income.

DON'T BUY

We've had a decent run in REITs, so he'd be selling and not buying. Yes, lower interest rates will help REITs. He feels the market is expecting too many rate cuts from the central banks. He predicts a hard landing in the economy eventually which won't help REITs.

BUY
Educational segment: China's stimulus plan announced last week

China is indeed investible, but not for the long term, but "rent" it short term. Why not long term? Because of their declining birth rate and falling population projections to fall by half by 2100. Factors: the one-child policy and the imbalance between genders. The population will shrink and it can't be entirely fixed by immigration.  Data shows him that China was outperforming the U.S. pre-Covid. But China's post-Covid response was terrible, so their market suffered a massive correction. But stimulus has lifted China's markets in recent weeks. How to play emerging markets? Buy an ETF ex-China, FRDM.

RISKY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

The stock is VERY cheap and management has been in the business a long time, with some good successes at prior companies. However, the company is quite small ($65M) and its operations have more risk than Canadian producers, which are also very cheap. The balance sheet is fine, but with only two analysts it tends to get ignored in the market. With risk high we think larger, domestic names offer a better risk/reward set up. 
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RISKY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

CAJPY is based in Japan, so keep in mind we do not follow it closely. It has strong market share, a strong balance sheet, and good expected earnings growth. Even with good gains this year, valuation is decent at 14X earnings. Its legacy chipmaking machines are seeing very strong demand. We would consider it a decent investment but please not the first line above. We do not know it very well.
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BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

It is a relatively low growth company, but shares are up 24% YTD. Sector sentiment has shifted, with lower rates providing a fundamental and sentiment boost and AI-demand adding some excitement to a boring sector. We would not expect the same rate of gains, but would be comfortable holding this for income right now. 
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