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We hit a spiky peak in late July, August was down, and when we close the books tomorrow it looks as though September will be down as well. Ongoing pressure on interest rates, plus a bias toward tightening at both the Fed and BOC. 

The other thing is economic gravity. You don't go through an epic cycle of rate increases over the last 18 months, the extent and pace of which is unmatched in decades, without eventually some fallout. It's often said that monetary policy operates with a 12-18 month lag time in the economy. Here we are 18 months into the tightening cycle, and we're starting to see the effects in the labour market and other parts of the economy. US manufacturing in particular, and in most developed countries, has been in contraction for 7-8 months.

The dot plots were higher than what markets were pricing. They're sticking to their guns. In terms of the BOC, it's coin-toss odds for another 1/4 point rate hike next month. We'll see what happens. 

Both of them still have work to do. BOC, in particular, has a singular mandate to ensure price stability which is 2% inflation, and we're still above that. They have to keep their foot on the brake until they get back to, or at least in line of sight of, a 2% inflation rate.

All of the interest sensitives have been under pressure the last couple of months with rates rising.

He favours TD. Tightly regulated oligopoly, and a levered play on the growth of the Canadian, and increasingly US, economy. Surplus of excess capital. 10x earnings. Dominant personal and commercial banking franchise. Good-sized banking presence in the US. Shares are at a discount to average. Close to 5% yield, growing at 8% compound over 10 years.

Valuation and yield of SLF are similar to TD. But TD's competitive position in its industry is more advantageous than SLF.

Compared to CM, TD is more of a scale player with a stronger franchise on both sides of the border on its core banking business.

All of the interest sensitives have been under pressure the last couple of months with rates rising.

He favours TD. Tightly regulated oligopoly, and a levered play on the growth of the Canadian, and increasingly US, economy. Surplus of excess capital. 10x earnings. Dominant personal and commercial banking franchise. Good-sized banking presence in the US. Shares are at a discount to average. Close to 5% yield, growing at 8% compound over 10 years.

Valuation and yield of SLF are similar to TD. But TD's competitive position in its industry is more advantageous than SLF.

Compared to CM, TD is more of a scale player with a stronger franchise on both sides of the border on its core banking business.

All of the interest sensitives have been under pressure the last couple of months with rates rising.

He favours TD. Tightly regulated oligopoly, and a levered play on the growth of the Canadian, and increasingly US, economy. Surplus of excess capital. 10x earnings. Dominant personal and commercial banking franchise. Good-sized banking presence in the US. Shares are at a discount to average. Close to 5% yield, growing at 8% compound over 10 years.

Valuation and yield of SLF are similar to TD. But TD's competitive position in its industry is more advantageous than SLF.

Compared to CM, TD is more of a scale player with a stronger franchise on both sides of the border on its core banking business.

Messy. Cut dividend by 55%. Good lesson on chasing a too-high dividend yield. 97% occupancy, but not enough to keep them out of financial difficulties. $4B of debt, more than 1/3 at floating rates. Giant "For sale" sign on it. Insider selling in January. Facing tax-loss selling if things don't turn around.

Great business model, management team, and culture. They go quietly about their business. Focused on vertical markets, which is extremely fragmented and the pieces can be bought by a serial acquirer for modest multiples. A friendly buyer, very profitable.

Owns the stock, but doesn't own the debenture rights anymore. Debentures have the advantage of good credit quality plus inflation protection. He didn't want the exposure, so sold the rights.

He's light on nat gas, owning just TOU. ARX would be his second choice in that space. Nat gas is not a must-own exposure anymore. Might get more bullish when export avenues open up on the West Coast in a couple of years. Good, low-cost producer. Undemanding multiple. Timely to trim. El Nino is a wild card.

Doesn't own any lifecos, prefers P&C and banks. Dogged by US business divisions, trying to divest. Canadian business is a modest grower. Star is the Asian business, which is 1/3 of operations. Always trades in single digits, 5+% yield, never seems to get above $30. He's neutral. Sell if it gets to $30.

Good stalwart. Yield is over 6%, growing steadily at mid-single-digit pace. Dominant player in a needs, not wants, business. Sector is an oligopoly, well regulated. Peak of capex is behind it. Quite profitable. Strong investment-grade credit.

Dominant franchise in office productivity tools. Asian cloud solutions has been the fast-growing segment. Undemanding multiple, grows year in and year out. Exciting AI developments. Resilient to economic slowdown.