BUY

Owned it for a long time. Technology moved from enterprise to consumer and now going back to enterprise. The cloud is still very small compared to other aspects. Still lots of companies can move and this company is well positioned for that. Generating lots of cash. Good profitability. They are in a sweet spot and continue to do well. They have a lead on the cloud.

BUY

Very well-run. They owned and sold it. Great business. Can’t go wrong with this.

TOP PICK

Much cheaper than other dollar stores trading at 16 times earnings. No dividend. They bought Family Dollar and that didn’t go that well and affected the stock price. They continue to do well. Good growth profile. (Analysts’ price target is $102.31)

TOP PICK

Great Canadian company. California Closets, College Pro Painters are some of their brands. The other business is the property management business. Stock trades at 28 times earnings but it is a very capital light business with no fixed assets. Generate very high free cash flows. They can grow. Very good exposure to the US. (Analysts’ price target is $94.75)

TOP PICK

High barriers to entry. Pricing power. Rational competition. Yield 1.6%. not paying a lot for it. They are solving the customer service problems they had. (Analysts’ price target is $111.28)

COMMENT

Market. Stock piles are nearing record low levels. Lack of available inventory within OPEC and lack of investment in OPEC and non OPEC countries. Inability to meaningfully grow production after 2019. USA has a pipeline bottleneck until 2020. With continued demand growth, we see inventory continuing to drop. See inventories approaching all time lows by the end of next year. Demand will only decelerate in today’s economy at $120 oil.
40% underperformance by Canadian energy stocks relative to index. A lot are trading at 4X multiples instead of normal 7.5 to 8X. He sees a minimum of 50% upside and if he is correct at $80 oil, he sees 100% upside in Canadian energy stocks.

COMMENT

Frac Sand Stocks. He got out of this sector last year. Perennial concern of too much new supply in Texas. Beginning of 2017, quality was questionable, but found they could use a lower quality sand. Storyline changed dramatically and he is no longer in this sector.

BUY

Is a lower risk way to gain access to Canadian light oil. He thinks Canada is now the place to be. Predominantly light oil producer. Stock has been lagging. Sees them having about 80% upside at $80 oil. Safe balance sheet. Current valuation is so low.

COMMENT

Should get LNG positive approval next Friday. All the signs are there. But will service stocks go up as well?

PAST TOP PICK

(A top pick July 19/17, down 21%) Is a pure play Canadian pressure pumper. Concerns were weak natural gas pricing and lowering of capital expense spending. They have been successful at share buybacks. Are being encouraged not to buy new equipment but continue to buy back stock. Trading at about 25% free cash flow yield.

PAST TOP PICK

(A top pick July 19/17, down 30%) Was lowest risk frac sand producer but did not work out. He exited last year.

PAST TOP PICK

(A top pick July 19/17, up 8%) This is a significant weighting for him. Confidant they will beat Q2 results and increase guidance this year. Could be a $45 stock if he is right in his $80 oil price prediction.

WAIT

Payout ratio is about 20%. No concern about dividend. Not going to hit enough institutional screens to get a meaningful uplift. Would be challenged to have this stock double. There are other stocks with more upside.

COMMENT

Got propelled from investor activism. Middle of the pack for him. He sees moderate leverage. He has been hung up on the nature of their assets, they are longer in the tooth. Higher cost operations. Sees 46% upside at $80 oil and a 27% upside at $70 oil.

DON'T BUY

They have a lot of debt and have been slowly trying to pay it down. If bullish in this sector, there are other stocks to look at. Financial risk exceeds his comfort level. No dividend.