Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

(A Past Top Pick Jan 18/17, Up 85%) It has been called a multilevel marketing company. They have never missed a quarter as a public company. There are a lot of eyes on it. They have recurring revenue. None of the allegations are new.

With the Equifax breach, everyone is back on the band wagon. They have a good solution for security. They have a lot of cash and no debt. Active investors have started to pick away. They own a third and management owns a third. It will get harder and harder to buy the stock. He thinks it will eventually get taken over. (Analysts’ target: $8.50).

All the semi conductor companies in the US are going crazy. This is the only Canadian player. Earnings are 100% next year and 30 times earning PE. It broke out to a new high a few days ago. It is doing very well and the sector is very hot. It is not as well known as it should be. (Analysts’ target: $2.00).

He likes it and it is a great income generator. It went down 10% on a downgrade in terms of customer acquisitions. The distribution is nice. They increased the dividend recently and have done so on a regular basis. Investors are nervous on this company.

He is looking into it right now. It is for income as there is not much growth. He is cautious on US health care business because of the Medicaid situation. It is not a dividend in jeopardy but he is cautious because of the sector. The value proposition on this one is attractive at present. It is a steady business. It is for income and not for growth.

Central Banks.They are forward-looking, so monetary policy to some extent is forward-looking, considering that a lot of Central Banks in the US have hiked rates 3 times since Trump won the presidency. In Canada, the Bank of Canada has hiked rates twice, so we are forward-looking, because inflation isn’t quite at the target a lot of these Central Banks are targeting, which is 2% or below. They think the slack is eventually going to get absorbed and eventually move back up to 2%. Having fixed income in a portfolio is important, because it will act as a ballast and give you an opportunity to redeploy capital when an opportunity presents itself. As long as we have decent credit growth and decent economic growth, it bodes well for owning equities, corporate profits and earnings.

Hold or Sell?If you are holding it, you are buying it. There is no question there is a tremendous amount of growth ahead. It’s very hard to justify valuation. While he has confidence that e-commerce penetration is going to increase very gradually from 9%-10% in the US, when you look at their valuation it is difficult to justify how much earnings are going to have to grow for the valuation to come down to a market multiple. Trades at about 110X next year’s earnings. If you take that market multiple and bring it down to a multiple of about 20, that implies earnings are going to have to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 48% over 10 years. Very few companies have been able to do that.

Key factors you focus on when assessing this kind of company?He tries to look at management, assets, payout ratios and liabilities. When evaluating any REIT, the most important thing is going to be demand and supply. It really affects the ability of management teams to increase occupancy and increase rents. For this one, seniors housing is very operationally intensive, and they benefit from being one of the largest players in Canada. Having national presence gives them the opportunity to purchase things a little cheaper, manage properties more effectively and to increase occupancy in case of a decline. He likes this company. There are very favourable demographic tailwinds that will benefit them going forward.

Valuations are a little more compelling in the context of higher consumer and corporate loan growth. There is also more of a capital redeployment story in the US. This bank has the 5^th largest deposit base in North America. That deposit base, which is under leveraged, represents an opportunity for them to significantly increase loan growth. They should benefit from higher interest rates.

Their asset class is one of the more coveted by institutions, because they are a form of lower income housing. Apartments, versus home ownership, is where a lot of people are migrating as people can’t get approval for mortgages. As a result, there has been significant rental growth in the US market, and homeownership continues to be at a multi-decade low. Hopefully that starts to reverse course, but in the interim, there is a lot of momentum for US apartments. Prefers Equity Residential (EQR-N). Dividend yield of 6%.

There was a strategic review by management for potentially selling the company, but nothing came of that. There was some turnover with the CEO. The big issue is when it initially came to the market, it had very significant exposure to Magna (MG-T), which was their largest tenant. However, it had a pristine balance sheet. When you think of the Debt to Growth Book Value, it had approximately 25%, and the theory was that if they increased the leverage and took that Debt to Growth Book Value to 40%, they would have $1 billion to play with, diversify tenant exposure, make acquisitions. However they haven’t done any of that. That is unfortunate, because real estate prices have gone up significantly. It pays a decent dividend of 5%. His concern is that you really do need the leadership in there.

Versus American banks?He likes US banks versus insurance companies. Banks are in a much better position to deliver earnings growth, versus some of the insurers. Insurers, both in Canada and US, do a little better when interest rates go up. Their liabilities go down and they also get a better return on assets. There is better risk/reward on the banks.

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Down 15%.) Continues to like this because it is a relatively defensive asset class, lower income Housing. Western Canada has been particularly challenged given the downturn in energy. The market has been a little overreacting to the downturn. The benefit is that it has a relatively short lease term. Trades at a significant discount to NAV. Continue to Hold if you own. Dividend yield of 5.6%.

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 43%.) He continues to like the US healthcare sector. In the US, if over 65 years of age, you spend 3X as much on healthcare as under the age of 65. This company doesn’t have much exposure to the Affordable Care Act and is well positioned to benefit from those trends.

(A Top Pick Sept 20/16. Up 11%.) Continues to like this. They generate a pretty decent cash flow, 3%-4% cash flow yield. The balance sheet is relatively strong, however it does continue to own a stake in L’Oreal. If they were to sell that stake, it unlocks a lot of capital which they can use for share buybacks. In the interim, management is focused on slightly improving margins and rationalizing their product line to focus on pet care, water and nutritional products. Derives a significant portion of sales from emerging markets.