Today, John Petrides and Jim McGovern commented about whether LMT-N, CAKE-Q, LAC-T, AGU-T, SHOP-T, CHKP-Q, GE-N, KMI-N, EMP.A-T, DEO-N, SBUX-Q, BAM.A-T, TIP-N, JJG-N, ALB-N, BIR-T, AAPL-Q, DIS-N, GLEN-LN, AEG-N, AMZN-Q, HBI-N, DOX-Q, MAT-Q, TSN-N, PM-N, C-N, CTL-N, GOOG-Q, V-N, DIS-N, TEVA-N, HON-N, AGN-N, NSRGY-OTC, BKR-Q, LUV-N, GILD-Q, UA-N, JPM-N, BAC-N, CELG-Q are stocks to buy or sell.
The stock is off about 18% or so the last three months. There is a Barbie turn-around. Barbie grew in double digits. They paid up for shelf space during the holiday season which pressured margins. They are turning around in the right direction. They are moving to 3D printing. Once they start streamlining that process it will save tremendous amounts of costs in the future. (Analysts’ target: $31.42).
His favourite company that no one knows about. A $9 billion dollar company that does billing for telecom operators. Switching costs are very, very high. It has a 1.3% dividend yield, which has grown 15% annually for 3 years and they have bought back stock for 10 years. 80% of their business is recurring revenue. (Analysts’ target: $ 63.11).
Market. Equity values are at stretched valuations, so if there are disappointments on the policy front, we could be in for some trouble. His strategy is being long financials, industrials and energy. There is still a lot of risk out there. The principal risk is in valuations. The US has really been a magnet for a lot of the world’s investable capital, and as a result we are getting a pretty bifurcated market right now. He is bullish on Japanese shares, but his caveat is to be hedged, and he is Short the Long Japanese shares, a play that has got a lot of folks interested again, partly because the Japanese monetary authorities have changed their policies more towards targeting yields. As a result, you typically get currency going down and the stock market going up. France is also very interesting. On the debt side, he is starting to see the spread starting to move out quite a bit from where the German Bund would be on the curve, as well as some skittishness in the equity market. He hopes to take advantage of volatility that will come out of the election. He’s been Short the Cdn$ for quite a while, but has it on a fairly short lease because it has been probing the $.70 level on a couple of occasions, and has been bouncing in a range of $.75-$.77. The issue here is partially a hedge against growth continuing to slow. If the Trump bump doesn’t manifest itself the way the market thinks, or doesn’t have the repercussions globally, he expects the Cdn$ and Australian $ will both be under pressure.
The proverbial story of valuation versus fundamentals. This is really a killer in its categories of online retailing and Cloud services. However, it is not cheap. You are looking at 25 to 28 times cash flow. They have a fair bit of growth to achieve in the next little while to come into that valuation. He would prefer looking at this in 2 parts, online retailing and Cloud services, so would suggest maybe looking at Microsoft, which has been growing its share in Cloud services. A cheaper stock and pays a dividend.
He likes this. Over the last 4-5 months, iPhone 7 was not as bad as he had expected, and also the services side of the business is growing faster than he had thought it would. Also, that is in the context of a not very robust economy. Looking at the product cycle coming, some of the big improvements they’ve made in their laptop and the Mac business and its low valuation, he covered his Short position and is now Long.
Just released really, really strong results. Terrific operators and have great properties. He is a little concerned with the natural gas price not going up dramatically from here. Also, you should be a little cautious about the border adjustment tax Trump is floating and its impact on Canadian E & P companies.
A fantastic company that he would buy. The valuation is a little bit high for a tech company, but they have a tremendous balance sheet and cash flow and they are just unleashing the potential of YouTube. GOOG-Q is a very disruptive company. YouTube is the crown jewel now.