Hanesbrands (HBI)

They have way too much debt. pass.

They ended their dividend, which means things aren't going well.

It is a crowded industry with margins not so great. Their balance sheet is not so great so put it on the pile of undifferentiated commodities. Also there were recently some executive departures. He prefers NKE-N.

(A Top Pick Feb 9/17. Up 16%.) This is doing okay, but there is some nervousness on what is going to happen with Hanes. In the upcoming Christmas season, they get a decent percentage of their sales from in-mall and store traffic. They are building an online presence. There is no reason why underwear, T-shirts and socks can’t be distributed online. This is a good stock.

(A Top Pick Feb 9/17. Up 3%.) Pressure on retail has hurt them. In 2012, cotton prices spiked. The company had a tremendous amount of debt. Management was focused on using their cash to pay down debt. At the same time, they embarked on a strategy called “Innovate to Elevate” an innovative commoditized category to elevate margins. They did so by imprinting tags on undershirts, etc. rather than having labels. Because of that they’ve been able to charge higher prices to get better margins. At 9X earnings, this is a very, very cheap stock.

They disappointed investors except with the multiple. They tripled the dividend in 3 years. It has a 3% yield. They spent a lot of time in cash, buying back stock. They are classified as consumer discretionary. He does not think underwear in discretionary. (Analysts’ target: $27.54).

Has an aversion in general to retail, but if he were going to buy retail stock, he would rather buy a manufacturer. Retail does poorly in a recession, and it tends to be cyclical. This one is not much of a global player, and a play that should be successful in a declining US$, which will help the multinationals. He would rather focus on those.