Today, John Zechner and Lorne Zeiler commented about whether ABBV-N, TRP-T, AAPL-Q, SHW-N, CP-T, CNR-T, BCE-T, CSCO-Q, CHR-T, BAM.A-T, ZPR-T, LYB-N, CPSI-Q, TEVA-N, FC-T, MFC-T, CM-T, DH-T, JNJ-N, META-Q, DGC-T, HBC-T, HBM-T, CPG-T, IPL-T, MYL-Q, DHX.B-T, PZA-T, KL-T, OGC-T, FFH-T, MRU-T, HBC-T, FDX-N, AAPL-Q, MRE-T, DH-T, WFG-T, YRI-T, WFC-N, CXR-T are stocks to buy or sell.
He likes this. To him it is almost a mini Disney. Content is king, and they own children’s content, which has a longer life than a lot of others out there. They are doing a better job distributing into other media as well. He likes the assets they have. The balance sheet is in better shape. They are starting to generate free cash flow again, and the operating cash flow looks good.
They jacked up the price of the EpiPen and it gave a whole credibility issue problem to the company and brought it under some pressure. Healthcare and technology are those things that are going to grow in almost any market environment over the next number of years. This company is pretty well positioned. They argued their case effectively.
He is not bullish on oils in general, and is underweight. This whole OPEC agreement just doesn’t do it for him. They always cheat. The biggest winner in this, is US shale. This company is probably one of the better valuations in the sector. Costs are down. They have a good land base to drill on going forward. One of the better cash generators, and this is a good valuation. He has taken a little bit of money off the table on this.
If you take a normal REIT value for department store REITs, and apply it to their real estate operations, you’ll probably get a value north of $20, maybe $25 a share. You are paying less than nothing for the retail operation. He likes what they have done with the Bay since 2007. They bought Saks, turning it around. Thinks Galeria Kaufhof is going to be a stronger operation. Even moving Bay stores into a place like Belgian was a smart idea. Trading at a huge, huge discount to its NAV. Dividend yield of 1.5%. (Analysts’ price target is $20.75.)
This came under additional pressure, because the West Detour looks like there was some delays and costs coming a little higher than initially expected. This is still going to come on, just a little later than expected. The drawdown on the stock is more than offset. The balance sheet is in good shape. Good cash flow generation. Long lifeline. This will make a great take out candidate for one of the larger players at some point. (Analysts’ price target is $28.76.)
This has done a phenomenal job. Believes it will be the largest market capitalization stock in the US in the next couple of years. There are 1.8 billion monthly active users. When they went public, they had zero mobile advertising revenue. It was 84% of their $7 billion in revenue last quarter. They keep beating expectations. Margins are rising. The apps they don’t have, they keep buying. You are basically getting this at around 21X 2017 and about 18X the forward year. Even if you gap-adjust that it is still in the mid-20s. (Analysts’ price target is $154.71.)
Market.Donald Trump made a lot of promises, and you have to position for both extremes. He expects that he is going to try to get through the agenda items which are easier, those agenda items that the Republicans have been pushing for, and ones that will be popular with both investors and the general populace. Thinks he will do the repatriation of capital. There are hundreds of billions of dollars sitting in offshore accounts, not coming back to the US because of very high tax rates. Thinks he will offer the possibility of a 5% tax rate. If this happens, expectations are that there will be $500-$800 billion back into the US, and likely going into a lot of friendly shareholder type share buybacks, dividend increases, special dividends and, as Trump hopes, spur the economy on. Another that is also likely, but to a lesser extent, is the corporate tax rate. Expects it is going to come down, and a 20%-25% rate is likely to happen. Hopes that the protectionist Trump does not come into play. There could be some problems on infrastructure spending, as he doesn’t think the party will be supportive of an increased deficit. Europe is very attractively valued, but you also need to be in the stronger US market as well.
One of the names you want to hold in the pharmaceutical healthcare area for the long term. The pharmaceutical healthcare field has had good earnings growth, and are expecting significant earnings growth next year, especially on the pharmacy side. These kinds of names were really hurt in 2016, because there was fear that if Clinton came in, they are going to start regulating prices along with additional regulations on the pharmaceutical industry. This trades at a premium to the group at about 20-21 times earnings. They have a great platform with a pipeline of about 10 medications that should be coming on market in the next 5 years. They are great at cost cutting. Also there is a potential acquisition they are looking at.
Sold his holdings in May, when there was a bad quarter of earnings. The company did a number of acquisitions; however the acquisitions weren’t bringing the revenue in fast enough, and hence they were over levered on all of them. Q4 basically missed on all factors, and the stock fell off a cliff. They’ve been able to renegotiate their debt covenants, so that is all clean. Also, reduced distributions. The last move, from $17 to about $18, was based on the potential of an acquisition. If it does not happen, he expects the stock will decline. However, if it does happen, you could see about 20% from where we are today.
CIBC or another Canadian bank?Canadian banks have had a fantastic year. The 6 have basically been responsible for half, if not more, of the total gains on the TSX this year. As a group, they have returned roughly 30% this year. The issue with the banks is that they are now trading above their historical multiples, particularly because in the last few months, they’ve had a big increase along with the US financials, on expectations that net interest margins are going to expand. If there is further deterioration on Canadian fundamentals, this is the most domestically focused bank. Royal (RY-T) is probably a better name to go with.
5-year hold?You are not going to have concerns about this company. They are growing their asset management business significantly. If you are a dividend investor, you want to be in some names that are interest sensitive, and the lifecos are interest sensitive names. Prefers Sun Life (SLF-T) whose footprint into India has been very successful, and they are now moving into China. However, both are great companies.
This is one where the valuation is very compelling. It’s at a 52-week low, and in this environment, you would think a generic company would do very, very well. At this level it is definitely worth dipping into it. They are expecting 15%-20% growth in emerging markets, and this company will be able to participate.