He likes this. It has kind of meandered down recently, and is at a critical support level at $53-$54, a previous February low. If it falls below, there might be a technical problem. They are moving more and more into women’s athletic wear and trying to penetrate that market. They are also moving into China as well. Those are their 2 major growth engines. Trading at 23X earnings and he thinks the market is shifting slightly away from growth names into some of the value names. This is not necessarily a value name. However, you are paying 23X for 13% growth.
This is doing all the right things. He likes it for the dividend of about 3% and its moderate growth. They are shedding off excess that maybe they shouldn’t have been in over the last 10-15 years. Continuing to shed assets that don’t make a lot of sense, and focusing on their core competency. However, the stock has moved sideways for a long period of time. The 200 day moving average is just moving sideways and slipping up ever slows gradually. At this price, he may take profits in order to enter at a lower price.
There is a chase for yield with interest rates being lower for longer. This yields about 4.6%, which is what investors want. Steady growth, so it is a low beta name, especially for investors who are more cautious. Trading at about 14X PE, only a notch away from a 2012 10-year high, so it is getting up there in terms of lofty valuations. Sees this growing at about 5% EPS, so it is a bit expensive.
Technicals are kind of sideways from where it has been. It seems it is bouncing off the 200 day moving average at about $76. You might have a “trading” Buy at this point. Long-term, owning this or MasterCard (MA-N) makes a lot of sense as there is a secular shift from writing cheques and paying cash. However, this looks like it is having trouble getting past the $82 level.
From a valuation standpoint it looks to be pretty cheap at about 10X forward earnings, but these banks have been cheap for a while. The hope of interest rates finally moving higher has really been there to push these bank stocks higher. Interest rates are going to be pushed further along in terms of the pace of hikes down the road. Because of that he has traded this recently, buying at about $13.50-$14 and selling it at $15. There are other names that are a bit more attractive in the US financial space, such as J.P. Morgan (JPM-N).
An ETF that invests in companies with very, very high quality aspects, whether it is from earnings or dividends, as well as real quality by S&P Research. The flip side is that some of the names are a bit lofty in terms of valuations. He likes this because there is a shift towards higher-quality names. As you move into the later stages of the stock market economy the large cap high-quality names tend to do better than the lower quality names.
Switch to something better? If you own, stick with it for the time being. Shares are still moving sideways, but starting to inch up. It is still technically below the 200 day moving average, which is not a great long-term signal, but since Feb-April, it is trying to move higher, and he is seeing higher highs and higher lows. A cheap stock at 10X earnings. Dividend yield of 3.95%.