Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Michael Bowman commented about whether AMT-N, GEI-T, ARE-T, BTE-T, CNR-T, ARX-T, TECK.B-T, PD-T, CBI-N, TD-T, VOO-N, TLM-T, PONY-T, RCD-N, YXM-T, FLM-N, SVY-T, CVE-T, DML-T, HSE-T, EGL-T, ECA-T, ZWH-T, ZWU-T, HAC-T, ZRE-T, XEG-T are stocks to buy or sell.
If you have a longer term horizon of 3-5 years then it is a no-brainer to overweight the energy sector. ZEO-T would alternatively not contain so much of the majors. The smaller ones of the bigger ones have more impact. This one should outperform the larger cap names. It is equally weighted instead of market cap weighted.
Educational Segment. Forecasting Next Year. What he thinks today could change a month from now. Forecasting two years out is nice to have but… In 2015 here is what might happen: Greece: We could be positioned for another exit. We are starting to take a turn. It is breaking down. An election process over the next three weeks may not re-elect, and it could be an anti Euro party that gets in. That is the only way to turn things around there. It would be the first country to leave the Euro. Russia and part of South America: South America is stressed like Russia because of oil being the major export for their economy. Thinks Venezuela could re-value their currency and shock the world. Credit market spreads: are widening and we need to be on the lookout for that. China: next year they could miss their 7% growth projection. China is a big risk for next year that we need to think about. What if the FED decides to tighten next year: Look at Euro futures. By September and December next year, the probably of 1/2-3/4ths of a percent rate hike are already priced in. If oil prices stabilize, the Canadian market might start to turn around. Look at French and German bond yields: The best performing asset this year was a US long bond. We need to watch Euro bond yields and especially French. When we see an extended decline in oil like this, the recovery tends to be about 15 to 25%. We are likely to see a bottom in the next few months,. Earning expectations need to come down. Maybe markets will be just okay next year. Will talk more about these things in January.
Markets. You can look at oil and be scared or you can see a lot of opportunity. Oil prices could stay here for the next 6 months, but fundamentally, half or more of the fracking in the US makes no money. The current price is already priced into oil stocks. Look for when it is going to recover. He would be surprised if the Fed had any material change to the rates this week. The energy sector is a growth sector in the US. Most jobs over the last 6 months are directly or indirectly related to fracking.