Stock Opinions by Mike Capombassis - Stockchase Experts
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Mike Capombassis

On Stockchase since : Jun 2016

President at Bristol Gate Capital Partners

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Stock Opinions by Mike Capombassis - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

September 1, 2016

Markets.  He does not focus on dividend yield so much as on dividend growth.  The US equity market has been in a profit recession for 5 quarters.  First quarter this year was the worst quarter for earnings growth.  But improvement in earnings for the fourth quarter is largely priced in.  Telecom, utilities, energy and materials are the top sectors.  He is typically in consumer staples, consumer discretionary and financials.  There is a real risk in stocks with a high dividend yield.

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Markets.  He does not focus on dividend yield so much as on dividend growth.  The US equity market has been in a profit recession for 5 quarters.  First quarter this year was the worst quarter for earnings growth.  But improvement in earnings for the fourth quarter is largely priced in.  Telecom, utilities, energy and materials are the top sectors.  He is typically in consumer staples, consumer discretionary and financials.  There is a real risk in stocks with a high dividend yield.

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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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BUY
Facebook(FB-Q) 

September 1, 2016

He likes it.  It does not pay a dividend so he does not own it in his fund.  It owns some very valuable properties such as Instagram, which is the growth engine.  They spent a billion dollars to acquire Instagram and 4 years later it is one of the fastest growing platforms.  They also own Whatsapp.  He sees upside, but growth will decelerate.  They are investing in the trends of tomorrow.

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He likes it.  It does not pay a dividend so he does not own it in his fund.  It owns some very valuable properties such as Instagram, which is the growth engine.  They spent a billion dollars to acquire Instagram and 4 years later it is one of the fastest growing platforms.  They also own Whatsapp.  He sees upside, but growth will decelerate.  They are investing in the trends of tomorrow.

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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$126.170
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Visa Inc.(V-N) 

September 1, 2016

HD-N vs. V-N.  Don’t focus on the current yield.  He thinks V-N will deliver 20% dividend growth going forward.  HD-N is also a high dividend grower.  You need to decide which business you want.  He would go with V-N because it is the largest electronic payment network in the world. They just completed the European acquisition and it should be very accretive. 

other services
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HD-N vs. V-N.  Don’t focus on the current yield.  He thinks V-N will deliver 20% dividend growth going forward.  HD-N is also a high dividend grower.  You need to decide which business you want.  He would go with V-N because it is the largest electronic payment network in the world. They just completed the European acquisition and it should be very accretive. 

other services
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$81.300
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Netflix Inc.(NFLX-Q) 

September 1, 2016

It does not pay a dividend so he cannot own it.  It sold off because they disappointed the market in terms of new subscribers.  The reasons to own the stock are still the same.

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It does not pay a dividend so he cannot own it.  It sold off because they disappointed the market in terms of new subscribers.  The reasons to own the stock are still the same.

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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$97.380
Owned Owned
No

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WEAK BUY
Gilead Sciences Inc.(GILD-Q) 

September 1, 2016

GILD-Q vs. DIS-N.  Gild-Q: 7-8 times earnings.  HEB-C drug is over 2/3rds of the revenue.  The revenue is rolling over a little bit.  They need to either get a surprise in the pipeline or acquire somebody.  The dividend is safe but won’t grow much.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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GILD-Q vs. DIS-N.  Gild-Q: 7-8 times earnings.  HEB-C drug is over 2/3rds of the revenue.  The revenue is rolling over a little bit.  They need to either get a surprise in the pipeline or acquire somebody.  The dividend is safe but won’t grow much.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$77.420
Owned Owned
Unknown

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STRONG BUY
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

September 1, 2016

GILD-Q vs. DIS-N.  DIS-N has 20% dividend growth and 15% expected going forward.  Their business is growing.  Their business model is very sustainable.  He is comfortable with a 60 times PE.

entertainment services
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GILD-Q vs. DIS-N.  DIS-N has 20% dividend growth and 15% expected going forward.  Their business is growing.  Their business model is very sustainable.  He is comfortable with a 60 times PE.

entertainment services
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$94.260
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
CenturyLink Inc(CTL-N) 

September 1, 2016

They are 18 billion dollars in debt and they cut their dividend in 2014.  It has been stable ever since.  The market is telling you it is at risk.  He prefers T-N  (AT&T).

Utilities
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They are 18 billion dollars in debt and they cut their dividend in 2014.  It has been stable ever since.  The market is telling you it is at risk.  He prefers T-N  (AT&T).

Utilities
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$27.740
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Walt Disney(DIS-N) 

September 1, 2016

(Top Pick Jun 7/16, Down 3.60%) He is still a fan.  The largest and highest quality media company in the world.  The scale and diversity of the portfolio is the competitive advantage for the company.  They acquired a stake in a company that does live streaming.  It offsets cord cutting effect on ESPN. 

entertainment services
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(Top Pick Jun 7/16, Down 3.60%) He is still a fan.  The largest and highest quality media company in the world.  The scale and diversity of the portfolio is the competitive advantage for the company.  They acquired a stake in a company that does live streaming.  It offsets cord cutting effect on ESPN. 

entertainment services
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$94.260
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Tractor Supply(TSCO-Q) 

September 1, 2016

(Top Pick Jun 7/16, Down, 12.78%) Largest recreation retailer to the hobby ranchers in the US.  A weak second quarter was caused by weather.  Same store sales were down 0.5% vs. expectations of up 3% and caused the stock to come down.

merchandising/lodging
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(Top Pick Jun 7/16, Down, 12.78%) Largest recreation retailer to the hobby ranchers in the US.  A weak second quarter was caused by weather.  Same store sales were down 0.5% vs. expectations of up 3% and caused the stock to come down.

merchandising/lodging
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$84.080
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Snap-On Inc(SNA-N) 

September 1, 2016

(Top Pick Jun 7/16, Down 4.29%) They had a great second quarter.  They have high customer intelligence.  The company has been around about 100 years and paid a consistent dividend for 77 years.  Very high quality book.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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(Top Pick Jun 7/16, Down 4.29%) They had a great second quarter.  They have high customer intelligence.  The company has been around about 100 years and paid a consistent dividend for 77 years.  Very high quality book.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$153.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Verizon Communications(VZ-N) 

September 1, 2016

It does not have a high enough dividend growth for him, but the telecom space has been a big winner.  You can buy it at a decent multiple.  A solid holding for income.

telephone utilities
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It does not have a high enough dividend growth for him, but the telecom space has been a big winner.  You can buy it at a decent multiple.  A solid holding for income.

telephone utilities
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$52.560
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
McDonalds(MCD-N) 

September 1, 2016

Largest restaurant chain in the world by sales.  It has repositioned itself in the last year or so, so the stock has done well.  You get a nice dividend and PE of 20 times earnings.  They offer all day breakfast which is a home run for the stock.  He likes it.

food services
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Largest restaurant chain in the world by sales.  It has repositioned itself in the last year or so, so the stock has done well.  You get a nice dividend and PE of 20 times earnings.  They offer all day breakfast which is a home run for the stock.  He likes it.

food services
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$115.400
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD

A higher dividend yielding company.  More than 4% dividend and a little bit of growth, but not quite high enough for him.  It should do well for the remainder of the year.

tobacco
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A higher dividend yielding company.  More than 4% dividend and a little bit of growth, but not quite high enough for him.  It should do well for the remainder of the year.

tobacco
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$100.620
Owned Owned
No

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WEAK BUY
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

September 1, 2016

He needs three years of dividend history so he could own this.  Tim Cook replaced Steve Jobs 5 years ago.  It is the most valuable company in the world.  The growth is slowing down however and it breaks a thirteen year streak.  He would not buy in anticipation of the iPhone 7 release.

electrical/electronic
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He needs three years of dividend history so he could own this.  Tim Cook replaced Steve Jobs 5 years ago.  It is the most valuable company in the world.  The growth is slowing down however and it breaks a thirteen year streak.  He would not buy in anticipation of the iPhone 7 release.

electrical/electronic
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$106.730
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Dow Chemical(DOW-N Merged) 

September 1, 2016

One of his newest names, one of the highest quality companies in the world.  Going through a merger with DD-N (Dupont).  Once completed, they will spin off the business into 3 components.  It has a rich dividend and growth.  A recession would be the biggest risk, but he doesn’t see one on the horizon.  He feels comfortable going forward in rate of dividend growth. 

chemicals
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One of his newest names, one of the highest quality companies in the world.  Going through a merger with DD-N (Dupont).  Once completed, they will spin off the business into 3 components.  It has a rich dividend and growth.  A recession would be the biggest risk, but he doesn’t see one on the horizon.  He feels comfortable going forward in rate of dividend growth. 

chemicals
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Mike Capombassi

President, Bristol Gate Capital...

Price Price
$53.800
Owned Owned
Yes

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