Opinions by Bruce Tatters | StockChase
239
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2014

Triumph Asset Management

239
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Oct 2014

Triumph Asset Management


Opinions by Bruce Tatters


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
N/A
General Market Comment 

January 10, 2017

Market. Since the Trump election, there has been a lot of optimism about policy change happening, both in a tax and a regulatory front. We are now at a digestion stage. There is a lot of Senate confirmations on his cabinet in the next few days. This is followed by his inauguration, and analysts are waiting for the change to happen. This is a healthy. He tries to always populate his portfolios with a basket of the best reward returns. When cyclicals shift, whether it is materials, energy, etc., it can be years of a changeover. Cycles happen because of over investment and supply. When things get really bad in multiple years, there is under investment and supply. These can be longer cycles.

Market. Since the Trump election, there has been a lot of optimism about policy change happening, both in a tax and a regulatory front. We are now at a digestion stage. There is a lot of Senate confirmations on his cabinet in the next few days. This is followed by his inauguration, and analysts are waiting for the change to happen. This is a healthy. He tries to always populate his portfolios with a basket of the best reward returns. When cyclicals shift, whether it is materials, energy, etc., it can be years of a changeover. Cycles happen because of over investment and supply. When things get really bad in multiple years, there is under investment and supply. These can be longer cycles.

Unknown
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 10, 2017

Of the Big 6 Canadian banks, would it be wise to buy the laggards? Looking across the banks, they have differentiated businesses. He has focused on the ones with the largest US exposure. TD Bank (TD-T) would probably be the key name. The ones with the highest multiples, around 12X this year’s earnings, are the ones with the larger exposure to US wholesale. Those are the ones that are going to have the best earnings growth.

Of the Big 6 Canadian banks, would it be wise to buy the laggards? Looking across the banks, they have differentiated businesses. He has focused on the ones with the largest US exposure. TD Bank (TD-T) would probably be the key name. The ones with the highest multiples, around 12X this year’s earnings, are the ones with the larger exposure to US wholesale. Those are the ones that are going to have the best earnings growth.

Unknown
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

January 10, 2017

Bonds? These have had a 32 year-run and are trading at yield levels that are unsustainable. Unlike the last 32 years, where you made capital gains and income, you are going to have a very small dividend offset by capital losses. This is the asset class that is going to struggle.

Bonds? These have had a 32 year-run and are trading at yield levels that are unsustainable. Unlike the last 32 years, where you made capital gains and income, you are going to have a very small dividend offset by capital losses. This is the asset class that is going to struggle.

Unknown
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Allergan PLC.(AGN-N) 

January 10, 2017

(A Top Pick Aug 17/16. Down 13.44%.) A terrific company, and shows up as the highest quality company in its group. Unfortunately, they got painted by the specialty pharmaceutical brush. It is getting a bit of a reprieve right now. He still likes this. It has one of the best growth profiles of any of the specialty pharmaceutical companies. The majority of its businesses are not subject to the same type of price controls that could come under government scrutiny.

Consumer Products

(A Top Pick Aug 17/16. Down 13.44%.) A terrific company, and shows up as the highest quality company in its group. Unfortunately, they got painted by the specialty pharmaceutical brush. It is getting a bit of a reprieve right now. He still likes this. It has one of the best growth profiles of any of the specialty pharmaceutical companies. The majority of its businesses are not subject to the same type of price controls that could come under government scrutiny.

Consumer Products
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$221.250
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

In the hardware group in technology, Cisco (CSCO-Q) is one of the key names he is taking a close look at. AMD and a number of the semiconductors have had a monstrous run and valuations just aren’t there for an entry point.

electrical/electronic

In the hardware group in technology, Cisco (CSCO-Q) is one of the key names he is taking a close look at. AMD and a number of the semiconductors have had a monstrous run and valuations just aren’t there for an entry point.

electrical/electronic
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$11.440
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE-T) 

January 10, 2017

Sort of a dual company ever since they bought Aurora a couple of years ago, so it has heavy oil assets in Western Canada, and really, really high quality Permian Basin assets in West Texas. It’s older legacy assets are higher cost and the Permian Basin are low cost. They went into this down cycle with too much debt, and got slammed. This is interesting here, because he is constructive on oil prices, and that oil will make its way higher up to the $60 range later this year. Even though that is only a 15%-20% move in oil, it has a much bigger impact on companies like this. He likes this here.

oil/gas

Sort of a dual company ever since they bought Aurora a couple of years ago, so it has heavy oil assets in Western Canada, and really, really high quality Permian Basin assets in West Texas. It’s older legacy assets are higher cost and the Permian Basin are low cost. They went into this down cycle with too much debt, and got slammed. This is interesting here, because he is constructive on oil prices, and that oil will make its way higher up to the $60 range later this year. Even though that is only a 15%-20% move in oil, it has a much bigger impact on companies like this. He likes this here.

oil/gas
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$6.100
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
CitiGroup(C-N) 

January 10, 2017

This has done well and is still cheap. One of the more international players. Dividend yield of 1.06%. (Analysts’ price target is $63.96.)

insurance

This has done well and is still cheap. One of the more international players. Dividend yield of 1.06%. (Analysts’ price target is $63.96.)

insurance
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$60.230
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
CCL Industries (B)(CCL.B-T) 

January 10, 2017

A packaging company for a lot of consumer products. Has done extremely well over the last couple of years. As long as the Cdn$ stays weak, it is a nice tailwind for them. There are some US competitors, so there may be some US legislation coming down which may drop the US tax rates from 30% to 15%, which would make the US competition a lot more competitive.

packaging/containers

A packaging company for a lot of consumer products. Has done extremely well over the last couple of years. As long as the Cdn$ stays weak, it is a nice tailwind for them. There are some US competitors, so there may be some US legislation coming down which may drop the US tax rates from 30% to 15%, which would make the US competition a lot more competitive.

packaging/containers
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$256.900
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Cisco(CSCO-Q) 

January 10, 2017

On his radar screen, because it has a growth outlook to its earnings. A very high quality business. It has capital abroad that could be repatriated. The valuation is very, very reasonable at about 12.5X 2017 earnings.

electrical/electronic

On his radar screen, because it has a growth outlook to its earnings. A very high quality business. It has capital abroad that could be repatriated. The valuation is very, very reasonable at about 12.5X 2017 earnings.

electrical/electronic
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$30.380
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Alphabet Inc (C)(GOOG-Q) 

January 10, 2017

For US technology, there are a bunch of cross currents for a lot of them. There is a potential big benefit if the US allows repatriation of foreign cash. Some, including this one, would be big recipients. This one continues to grow very, very nicely, both its core business and its YouTube franchise. Has a bunch of businesses that are not generating a lot of profits yet, which at some point could crystallize. A 25% grower trading just over the market multiple at closer to 20X earnings.

Business Services

For US technology, there are a bunch of cross currents for a lot of them. There is a potential big benefit if the US allows repatriation of foreign cash. Some, including this one, would be big recipients. This one continues to grow very, very nicely, both its core business and its YouTube franchise. Has a bunch of businesses that are not generating a lot of profits yet, which at some point could crystallize. A 25% grower trading just over the market multiple at closer to 20X earnings.

Business Services
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$804.790
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

January 10, 2017

This looks like it has decent earnings growth into 2017 off of 2016. It has had a big run with the Trump rally, but remember all these life insurance companies fare a lot better in a rate environment where rates aren’t at zero and the curve isn’t flat. It should continue to do better here. There is nothing wrong with this company.

insurance

This looks like it has decent earnings growth into 2017 off of 2016. It has had a big run with the Trump rally, but remember all these life insurance companies fare a lot better in a rate environment where rates aren’t at zero and the curve isn’t flat. It should continue to do better here. There is nothing wrong with this company.

insurance
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$24.550
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Nike Inc(NKE-N) 

January 10, 2017

There are a lot of these types of companies that have very, very fast hyper growth periods for the brand. This one has had one of the longer runs of any brand, to the point where athletic apparel, a little over a year ago, was at the point where people thought that is all that people were going to wear. Because of this, valuations just got too high. A fantastic business, but everything can have too much of a run. Although this has pulled back, it is still too rich for him, relative to its growth rate.

misc consumer products

There are a lot of these types of companies that have very, very fast hyper growth periods for the brand. This one has had one of the longer runs of any brand, to the point where athletic apparel, a little over a year ago, was at the point where people thought that is all that people were going to wear. Because of this, valuations just got too high. A fantastic business, but everything can have too much of a run. Although this has pulled back, it is still too rich for him, relative to its growth rate.

misc consumer products
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$53.110
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

He is constructive on oil and thinks prices will do better this year. For the very first time, this coming quarter you are going to get really strong year-over-year comparisons in energy, so energy is a good place to be. This one tends to be a more defensive, but in this environment it is going to do just fine. It wouldn’t be his 1st preference, especially when you have a company like Suncor (SU-T) in your backyard.

integrated oils

He is constructive on oil and thinks prices will do better this year. For the very first time, this coming quarter you are going to get really strong year-over-year comparisons in energy, so energy is a good place to be. This one tends to be a more defensive, but in this environment it is going to do just fine. It wouldn’t be his 1st preference, especially when you have a company like Suncor (SU-T) in your backyard.

integrated oils
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$54.370
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Suncor Energy Inc(SU-T) 

January 10, 2017

(A Top Pick Aug 17/16. Up 21.34%.) This had really terrific results shortly after he had recommended it. A very well-run company. It doesn’t face a lot of the same type of problems that a lot of energy companies face. A very disciplined and well run company.

integrated oils

(A Top Pick Aug 17/16. Up 21.34%.) This had really terrific results shortly after he had recommended it. A very well-run company. It doesn’t face a lot of the same type of problems that a lot of energy companies face. A very disciplined and well run company.

integrated oils
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$43.010
Owned Owned
Yes

Must be logged in to use chart
TOP PICK

About 15-20 years ago, the top 10 airline carriers in North America only accounted for about 15% of the air volume, and now the top 4 account for 80% of all traffic. This has turned itself into a really, really good oligopoly, so they have pricing power. The interesting thing is that the airline group still trades at about 4.5X EBITDA, because people still have long memories of when they were horrible. (Analysts’ price target is $81.09.)

About 15-20 years ago, the top 10 airline carriers in North America only accounted for about 15% of the air volume, and now the top 4 account for 80% of all traffic. This has turned itself into a really, really good oligopoly, so they have pricing power. The interesting thing is that the airline group still trades at about 4.5X EBITDA, because people still have long memories of when they were horrible. (Analysts’ price target is $81.09.)

0
Bruce Tatters

Founding Partner and CIO, Triumph Asset Manage...

PricePrice
$73.530
Owned Owned
Yes

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