Stockchase Opinions

Michael Decter Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (B) BRK.B-N PAST TOP PICK Feb 18, 2025

(A Top Pick Oct 03/24, Up 41%)

Buffett holds $300 billion, but he's holding some serious stock positions. It's great to ride along with one of the greatest investors of all times, and the extra cash provides a hedge. If there's a dip, Buffett is in a great position to buy. He expects a dip, but not a crash. Recent earnings season was overall positive.

$482.680

Stock price when the opinion was issued

insurance
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TOP PICK

He added to it yesterday, based on how it was acting. Support ~$500. Chart has beat the S&P in all timeframes. Massive cash hoard. In markets like these, why not get some help from people who have a great legacy track record? Even once Warren's gone, the successors will follow his guiding principles. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $514.33)
BUY
FFH vs. BRK.B

FFH is in his Canadian dividend strategy. BRK.B is in his global strategy.

Both are insurance-driven companies that are partly holding companies. Diversified businesses. Breakup NAV (not that they'd ever be broken up) is significantly higher than current share price. And that makes both of these a buy. Both are in the lower-risk category of companies.

BUY
Warren Buffett announced he will step down as CEO

The end of Buffett's reign as CEO has been an overhang for many years, but it hasn't mattered because shares have performed so well. This is as good of a transition plan and exit that he has ever seen anywhere, at any company. Buffett painstakingly worked on this transition for years. Shares remain at record highs. He remains a forever shareholder. Buffett is the GOAT and belongs on Mount Rushmore alone. There's nobody like him.

HOLD
Buffett's departure.

It'll be a stable company moving forward, because it's diversified. Mainly in insurance, which is doing a lot better than banks right now. Set up to continue to grow over time, it'll just depend on how Greg Abel and his team will allocate capital.

BUY

"Expensive" in terms of price per share is actually becoming less relevant because you can now buy fractional shares through some of the discount brokerage platforms. He doesn't own, but would be comfortable doing so. Today's as good a day as any to buy.

Good investment? Yes. Buffet is retiring and will be missed. Many people have learned a lot of valuable and timeless investing lessons from him. Berkshire has done a great job of planning succession and governance well, so the successor will have a good start. If Greg Abel has the endorsement of Buffett, that's good enough for his firm.

Portfolio of robust and resilient businesses with wide, competitive moats, and demonstrated history of generating free cashflow and paying dividends. Don't read too much into the cash hoard. It likes to be cash rich and patient, so it can write the big cheques when opportunities come along when there's blood in the streets.

COMMENT

Sitting on $300B or so of cash. Some of that will have to be used to buy back his shares when Warren does depart. Such a huge conglomerate, that they have to make bigger and bigger acquisitions to move the needle on earnings. And they're not finding those right now.

Over time, you'll probably get a 10% compound annual return. Doesn't own it because unsure what will happen once Warren really leaves or dies.

TOP PICK

More or less fair value on valuation. Ran up with market volatility, as it's always a safe haven. Buffett's retiring, end of an era. Greg Abel has the chops, an excellent operator. Excited to see how he'll use the cash balance and improve operations. Insurance stocks have pulled back, making this an attractive entry. 

Great proxy for growth of the US economy. Will really benefit from trends of AI and electricity demand. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $523.40)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Considered a growth company. Great job growing FCF per share over the last 50 years. Exceptionally well run. Buffett may be stepping back, but culture he's instilled for capital allocation and ethics will transfer to the next generation of leadership with Greg Abel.

Only concern is valuation, bit rich. Becomes increasingly difficult for large companies to allocate capital at high rates of return. Forward rate of return is probably high single-digit or low double. An 8-10% rate of return is strong in his view. High-quality and predictable business. Many have done poorly betting against it.

BUY

He believes in the company after Warren Buffett, who has installed heirs he will believe in. The company will be consistent.

WATCH
Why going opposite to the index?

Extremely well run. Shares pulling back from highs once Buffett announced retirement. Share price at 200-day MA, an inflection point. You have to understand that it's a fairly concentrated conglomerate of companies, including AAPL (though position was trimmed). Value strategy, which does well in time of uncertainty and higher interest rates; not so much when growth is on the boil with S&P being driven by tech.

Likes it long term, but big overhang on new management right now. If drops below 200-day MA, investors need to pay attention. Also tied to your outlook on AAPL.