Most Anticipated Earnings: IFC-T, MTLO-X and more Canadian Companies Reporting Earnings this Week (Feb 10-14)

Opinion about PSK-T: Second in line behind TPZ for what he'd want to own in terms of O&G royalty companies and infrastructure.

Opinion about CRT.UN-T: Similar to grocery-anchored. Suite of tenants connected to Canadian Tire. Very well structured with nice little increases in rent over time along with inflation. Really likes it. Very stable. With tariffs, he suspects that more of us will shop Canadian brands to support our Canadian economy.

Opinion about IFC-T: It's delivered, and it's been a great acquisition story. He's not playing the insurance side as much right now. Food for thought:  what's autonomous driving going to do to rates and payouts? Theoretically, it should be positive. Could be a cornerstone of the financial part of your portfolio, but he doesn't own…

Opinion about FCR.UN-T: Grocery-anchored retail in major cities in Canada. Most in-demand asset class in real estate today. Irreplaceable portfolio of great retail properties. World-class assets. Will have great rent growth, as new builds are too costly. Potential down the road to build apartments or condos on top of current sites, further adding to value…

Opinion about MRG.UN-T: Apartments on both sides of the border. Always trades at wide discount to NAV, a good starting point when you invest. Nice portfolio. Keep holding if you own, but better ideas out there. Nice distribution of 5.5%.

Opinion about SLF-T: If you own, hold on. Yield curve is somewhat favourable to them as it's normalizing (with short rates dropping and long rates staying put here and in US). Valuation is fine, below the banks. Delivered on last 2 quarters. Not much growth. MFC has done better job expanding in Asia. Decent yield.

Opinion about IAG-T: (A Top Pick Nov 13/20, Up 33%) Has started buying back shares and paying dividends. Financials should do well as the yield curve steepens. Valuation is not as compelling as before. Middle of the pack. Has moved to US banks and non-financial banks in Canada.

Opinion about CHP.UN-T: (A Top Pick Jul 12/24, Up 14%) Likes it, but should invest in better areas. Bought it for defence. It's boring, but steady. Great long-term for retirees seeking safe income, but won't rise in price much. But during the next pullback, which he expects in coming weeks.

Opinion about SRU.UN-T: Main tenant is WMT, which is a blessing and a curse. WMT drives a lot of traffic and attracts a lot of tenants, and it has great credit. But WMT has locked in low rents for a long time, though rents can be raised for the other tenants. Not as much growth…

Opinion about HR.UN-T: Hostile takeover. Diversified REIT that doesn't work very well anymore, as it tends to trade at the multiple of the least-liked sector it owns, and it has a lot of office. If you own, hold on, as today's press release indicated interest from multiple parties (and so a higher bid may come…

Opinion about KMP.UN-T: Very well managed. Company size is in the top 5. Originally focused on the Maritimes, which has seen a lot of population inflows. Expanding into other markets in Ontario such as Kitchener-Waterloo. Likes that they're experienced developers, always improving. Energy-efficient, new construction. Not facing high-rent pressures of others.

Opinion about ERE.UN-T: Doing the right things, but public market is not rewarding it. Selling assets piecemeal until the REIT is liquidated, now about 50%, and distributed income to investors. Hold on, still lots of value. Could buy comfortably here as it's trading below $2.50 per share, but assets arguably are worth $3.

Opinion about MRT.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Trading at high discount to NAV. Significant cash retention compared to peers. Diversified cash flow streams. Bid competition to slow acquisition growth.

Opinion about DRR.UN-T: Focused on assets in US. Has never traded above its IPO price. Pursuing strategic alternatives; if you own it, see how those go.

Opinion about FFH-T: He's been in and out of this one and probably should have just stayed in. Really good company. Trend is good. If you own, definitely hold. Has probably arced off the trendline a bit, so it'll probably pull back a bit and you can buy more.

Opinion about DFY-T: Focused on efficiencies and growth. Looking to buy Travelers Canada, which would make it the fourth largest in Canada and give them good scale. Trades at 2.4x book value. Time to take some profit.

Opinion about CAR.UN-T: Decent dividend. He actually has 3 REIT positions (including XRE and NWH.UN) because they're value plays right now, all pay dividends, and are a bit overlooked. His view is that markets may be in for more volatility, so you want stocks with lower beta. Buy here at the bottom of its range,…

Opinion about GSY-T: A good company, but this space faces regulatory pressure when it comes to interest charges. He owned this a long time ago. Provides shareholders decent returns over time.

Opinion about TSU-T: (A Top Pick Sep 10/24, Down 14%) Took write downs on non-core business operations. Now focused on growing highly profitable businesses that are generating very good combined ratios, both in Canada and US. Book value per share has increased. Great buying opportunity. 

Opinion about PMZ.UN-T: Why higher implied cap rate than peers? He scratches his head about this too. Likes it here. A bit of concern about shopping malls in general, with their sensitivity to the consumer. From what his team sees, consumers are continuing to spend $$. And it's cold up here, we love our malls.…

Opinion about CGY-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research In Q4 – 2024, CGY reported a revenue growth rate of 3%, with revenues reaching $181M compared to last year’s $175.9M. Adjusted EBITDA margin improved in the quarter to 12.5% from 11.6% last year. Overall, these were acceptable numbers but not that…

Opinion about AI-T: (A Top Pick Mar 11/24, Up 14%) More conservative than TF, and he owns both. Core position. Nice dividend. Not trying to shoot the lights out, just want to collect the income and reinvest.

Opinion about CUP.U-T: Fortis owns 60%. Challenge is that hurricane comes through every once in a while. Good system. Rates of return are higher than you can get in Canada. He owns Fortis

Opinion about FTS-T: Dividend choice for an 18-year-old to hold forever. Young investors don't care as much about dividend stocks, but they're really important. It's like collecting rent, instead of making money only once you sell a stock. The earlier they start, the more they reap the benefit of the compounding effect that takes place…

Opinion about CVO-T: Good job overall, well run. Exposed to some of the AI trends. Sizable competition for what they do. He's conservative on whether it can differentiate itself in the coming years. Must show it can get the big, multi-year contracts.

Opinion about SHOP-T: Pay attention to the old highs (~$200), and stock's getting close to them. Recent peak does appear to be breaking the last one. Probably will get to the $200 area, so still a few bucks to go. From there, that's when to start chewing your nails, as it's stalled there before when…

Opinion about CMG-T: Spiked up on the close last week. Everything looks really good about this for the long term, everything says you should own some. RSI against S&P since 2022 has been really good, up and to the right. Buy some today with a partial position, then add a second component on a further breakout,…

Opinion about MTLO-X: Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Revenue grew 57% YOY despite soft results in Q4 2021 relative to expectations. A strong second half of 2022 financial year is expected. Holds $8.5M in cash. In talks with Microsoft for a deal. Continues to trade at relatively low valuation. Results…

Opinion about T-T: Dividend's safe, doesn't see any risk. All telecoms have been under tremendous pressure for the past couple of years. Did better than the others because of ancillary businesses. He's become positive on the sector. He owns all the telecoms, likes to play the laggard, this is his smallest position of the group.

Opinion about TIXT-T: It has dropped 90% since its IPO. A buyout from Telus has been proposed so you could hold it until the deal closes for a bit more.

Opinion about DND-T: Better opportunities elsewhere in higher-probability stocks. Very competitive business. He doesn't understand the analysts' price target average, and that's what lures people in. (Analysts’ price target is $36.40)

Opinion about TC-T: Sold because its ROIC returns started to get a bit wonky. In fact in last 3 years, ROIC has been negative. Satellite internet access has eaten the lunch of fibre. Hard to form a moat around its domain business. Wait for ROIC to be in excess of 20% for at least 3…

Opinion about ALYA-T: Just went public in June. Plays into same space as CGI. Small minnow in big pond, but very smart. Built business on acquisitions. Interesting, because they're picking out smaller and mid-size, and they have a long runway.

Opinion about IQ-X: New technology officer. Early stages. Wait to see what happens.

Opinion about TIH-T: Is a catch-up trade that will test previous highs around $132. If we are starting a new cycle, copper will benefit. The chart shows higher highs and higher lows, but consolidation lies ahead as the USD rallies. (Analysts’ price target is $128.89)

Opinion about GRA-T: Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Momentum is solid. The fundamentals are improving along with profitability. Debt relative to cash is also improving. Market cap has reached $520M with insiders owning 10%. Not profitable yet although revenue is ramping up. Expensive but revenue growth looks good. Unlock Premium - Try 5i…

Opinion about OGI-T: (A Top Pick Jan 14/21, Up 35.1%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with OGI has triggered its stop at $3.00. We recommend covering the balance of the position at this time. When combined with the previous recommendation to cover half the position, this results in a net investment gain…

Opinion about WCN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Yesterday, Bloomberg posted an article noting it may ultimately cost more to address a high-temperature event at WCN's Chiquita Canyon Landfill than previously thought. The company has budgeted for $100M to $150M in remediation costs this year but Bloomberg said it may…

Opinion about WFG-T: (A Top Pick Oct 17/24, Down 6%) (Note the short timeframe.) Chose this based on historical seasonality for lumber. Surprised those stocks aren't acting better, especially since the California fires.

Opinion about ADN-T: Unique company in Canada that gives investors a way to own an uncorrelated infrastructure-type asset. No sawmills, just a pure play on timber land. Many institutions and pension funds would have a small part of their portfolio in it. Pays a dividend.

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Opinion about CAE-T: (A Top Pick Feb 05/24, Up 34%) Earnings good, guidance disappointed. But she takes a long-term view. One of the few stocks she owns with no dividend. Checked the boxes of recurring revenues, stable business. Still a pilot shortage in NA, geopolitical risks favour the defense segment.

Opinion about MTL-T: Grown by acquisition quite steadily over the years. Very good company and it won't hurt you, but he owns TFII instead.

Opinion about IFP-T: It is a pure play lumber producer. Forest stocks are down because the housing market in the U.S. is quite weak. 50% of the lumber they manufacture and sell is in the U.S. Watch for interest rates in the U.S. coming down which would be good for housing. If you own it,…

Opinion about WEF-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research WEF has rallied with interest rates, which help the sector, but is still down 26% for the year and 37% over 52 weeks. Note the dividend was cancelled in November 2023 and none is paid currently. This week WEF announced it would…

Opinion about MG-T: Very hesitant. Recent recovery has been sharp and quick, almost as though it's factoring in abolition of tariffs completely. We need more clarity on tariffs. Auto industry is highly cyclical and depends on health of the economy, and we're seeing signs of weakening.If you own it, don't need the cash, and have…

Opinion about AC-T: Not compelling right now for transparently understanding where it could go to. With the tariffs, this business is something that could actually be on the table; the dynamics of the Canadian market might change dramatically. Makes most of its money off international flights.

Opinion about IPCO-T: Also a Lundin Group company. Consistent in buying back shares. Stock's substantially undervalued. Heavy oil producer. Potential beneficiary of de-bottlenecking Keystone. No dividend. (Analysts’ price target is $20.27)

Opinion about CVE-T: Both oil and oil in Canada are just drifting. No real catalyst imminent. Trying to restructure and clean things up, and they've been very transparent on that. Great company, high-quality business. Still great margins, throwing off lots of $$. Inexpensive; can't sit around and wait for a breakout, because when the moves…

Opinion about BIR-T: He lkes the size of the company but it has leverage issues. Could be a beneficiary of consolidation in the U.S. He wants to see long term past success of management. 

Opinion about PD-T: (A Top Pick May 23/24, Down 37%) He sold this around $90. It's tied to the fall in oil prices as drilling activity slides. Shares are at a 28% free cash flow yield, but he isn't confident about that figure. Revisit this in maybe 6 months after the market absorbs OPEC oversupply.

Opinion about KEY-T: Last quarter was a nice beat. Asset sales. Sizeable projects seem to be making progress. Low leverage, low payout ratio with nice dividend, lots of volume growth on existing assets. Lots of upside from new project announcements. Natural gas plus getting it offshore are real tailwinds for Canada. Trading ~16.3x 2027, not cheap,…

Opinion about PSD-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research Market cap is $180M, after a 61% gain this year so far. No analyst coverage. Dividend 1.96% with a 17% bump in April and semi-regular special dividends. Price/earnings 13X. No debt and $14M cash. Good cash flow. A big jump in last…

Opinion about ENB-T: Likes all the pipelines. Energy infrastructure spending is a huge area for Canada over the next number of years. This name is a prime beneficiary. Good dividend yield. 

Opinion about TRP-T: He owned it for a while. Had a big run-up last year but thinks it is pretty much done now with a lot of insider selling. Tends to have big swings.

Opinion about SVM-T: Part of syndicate that brought company to markets. Financials in China a little opaque, but company has been generous to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. Would recommend buying. 

Opinion about CCE-X: This company has been around for 20 years on the Venture exchange. It has no revenues and has a couple of properties, one in Quebec and the other in BC. I questions how many investors have made money on this. He has no interest in this one.

Opinion about ABX-T: Problems in Mali, and company's short-term performance depends on that outcome. High operating costs in Nevada goldfields. Has decided to be a mining company rather than a gold mining company, which an increasing amount of revenue coming from copper. Much growth will come from Pakistan project, which he likes but the market…

Opinion about K-T: Whole bunch of decent assets, including a new one in Ontario. Stock will either go up of its own volition, or get taken over. Stock's performed well due to good cost containment. Good production growth and pipeline. Firing on all cylinders.

Opinion about RUS-T: His fundamental analyst on this name rates it "outperform" and doesn't see 50% tariff ramifications as huge. Higher highs, higher lows. Since tariff tantrum, has really started to pick up and try to push higher. Likes the setup. If he's right about the rally into August, should retest recent highs around $46.…

Opinion about NOA-T: A cheap play in the space. See his Top Picks.

Opinion about SOLG-T: Does not own shares, but thinks deposits are very good. Would recommend waiting to see if assets are able to produce economically. Also, hard area to produce with geopolitical risk. Regional politics also troublesome. 

Opinion about TMQ-N: Be cautious of very long timelines. Extremely high-grade copper deposit. Political winds are against it, as US government denied funding for access roads. First Nations are solidly in favour of the project. Own it for the extremely high potential value.

Opinion about LIO-X: Fiji is an interesting place. They have raised $85 Million last year when it was tough. If they get this thing going it will build up confidence. They are putting a relatively small scale gold mine into production while doing exploration. They should eventually get bought out.

Opinion about GFG-X: Some of the people behind Gold Standard Ventures, are behind this one as well. If you follow success in this industry, you will do relatively well. They raised a lot of money for Gold Standard Ventures and it has done well. It is probably in the 8th-9th inning before it gets bought…

Opinion about AEM-T: Biggest single equity holding he has in client portfolios. He did trim, as it got to be way too big a position. Like the gold price, has stagnated over the last few months. Sees it as portfolio protection, insulates from inflation and geopolitical concerns. Tariff issues are still to be resolved, and…

Opinion about DPM-T: Dundee is nowhere as large as Barrick, Franco Nevada or Agnico Eagle, which comprise a third of the Canadian materials sector, but it has outperformed it so far in 2024. Dundee shares have rallied 8.5% in this time period while Barrick is down over 16%. Also, Dundee holds more potential upside. Consensus…

Opinion about CGX-T: It was a darling, a great business years ago that generated tons of free cash flow. He once owned it. Then, it was supposed to be bought, but bad luck saw Covid hit and the deal died. Great management and still a good business that generates cash, but times have changed--there are…

Opinion about QSR-T: She's nervous about the consumer, particularly in Canada. Highly indebted consumer is being more cautious on discretionary spending. If it were just Tim's, she'd be OK with it because she likes the trade-down economics. Burger King is still closing stores, lots of competition and margin pressure.

Opinion about BPF.UN-T: Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Debt becoming a concern. Delivery and take-out only sources of sales. Special dividend paid this quarter. Dividend reinstated at a lower rate.

Opinion about CSW.A-T: Ace Beverage acquisition got him interested. Some really nice growth coming, but not all segments are growing. So it's not going to give him the consistent 10-15% growth rate of a great company. Last quarter showed 9%.

Opinion about CSW.B-T: He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in…

Opinion about CTC-T: Traditional bricks and mortar business that will face competition from eCommerce. Undifferentiated shopping experience that is not enjoyable. Discretionary product offering makes it difficult to retain customers. Would not recommend investing at this time. Housing slowdown in Canada will also be hard on the business. 

Opinion about CTC.A-T: Bouncing off resistance, may be breaking out. The further back in time, the less important the peaks are. If the breakout continues, give it a bit of time (2 weeks or so) to make sure it's legit, and then he'd add to his position.

Opinion about MTY-T: Used to be a good "compounder" (~20% annually). However, growth has slowed to around 10%. Is watching, but not investing at this time. 

Opinion about VCM-T: It is a well run company. He got out of it. They paid out a lot of special dividends and the stock did well, but he got out because most of the catalysts are out of it.

Opinion about Y-T: (A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 12%)Convertible 8% 2022 bonds He owned the Yellow senior bonds, but then moved into these convertibles. Most of their revenues are in digital, but that has struggled. New management has cut costs a lot until free cash flow now stands around $100 million this year. Their…

Opinion about TVA.B-T: A cash cow, owning many TV channels and make movies. But shares are down, because it's a small cap and there's pressure on TV ad revenues. Still cheap. Quebecor owns 70% and could easily privatize it around $5-6, which he thinks will happen one day. Generates a lot of cash. For patient…

Opinion about MBX-T: Very positive on the stock price, the company, and the partnerships they're announcing. Technicals indicate the stock may head toward 90 cents, but he says higher. Just won a contract from the Ontario government. Covid testing isn't going away. Sales should triple in the next 12 months.