Veren (VRN-T)

Hit pretty hard. Last quarter threw people off, with worries over growth. Otherwise, good drilling success. Great transition to Duvernay and Montney. Cheap valuation. Debt paid down to target, so more $$ (about 75% of cashflow) to shareholders.

Frustrating year, but that creates opportunity. Final opportunity will be M&A throughout the sector.

Oil hasn't been the best place. Best time to own oil or its producers is from March to early summer. Most of the producers have been in a sideways trap. This one has broken down, that's bad. If you own it, give it a chance. But if it doesn't start showing consistent up-and-down range-trading behaviour, don't hold for too long. See his Top Picks.

Huge disappointment, and management owns its mistakes. He's met with management and is comfortable with the status, but other investors are just done. Given current prices of oil and gas, trades at 13% free cashflow yield. Quality not impaired, but it will take time. He bought more shares.

There remains no appetite to own small/mid-cap Canadian-only oil producers. We haven't seen consolidation here, thought it did in the US. Don't sell at current levels. They are messing up on operations now, which hurt guidance. But long term the dividend and assets are fine.

Likes it. If you believe oil/gas prices will be higher in 1-5 years, Veren is interesting. But this is a commodity company, so it is volatile. New managers are smart with balance sheets and debt, so they don't need a much higher oil price to make money, but how excited will markets get if oil prices stay at current levels?

Over the past year, lots of insider buying. Cheap valuation, however other energy producers to invest in. Would watch company. Could be better options within energy. 

Trading under 3x operating cash flow and 15x free cash flow yield. They were always a big Bakkan player, but grew by acquisition then diluted too many, but recent years are focussing much more. This is nothing like the Crescent Point Energy of old. It's more focussed and productive and trading at a low valuation.

Company solving 3rd party challenges. Excellent recent well results. Very good Montney and Duvernay acreage. Recent sale of infrastructure good for balance sheet. Excellent cash flow, with strong inventory. Excellent CEO. Has been buying shares lately. 

Down, but he's buying as much as he can. He would have named it a Top Pick if he could. Mountain of selling the past few days, but he can't see any fundamental problems. 18% free cashflow yield.

Management reiterates it's done with M&A, laser focused on paying down debt and returning capital to shareholders.

Better opportunities elsewhere. More risk. If you own it, it's a hold, but don't add.

Significant weight for him. 20 years of inventory. Now has strategic positions in 2 of the best plays of inventory depth. Lowering costs. Super-strong balance sheet. No inventory challenges. Conservative management. Potential upside of 82%.

Classic oil producer chart. Broke out, pulled back to the neckline. Have to see if neckline holds, that would be good. If breaks down below $11 or so, expect it to return to the bottom of the range. He's not making any predictions.

Recent name change from Crescent Point Energy. Company has lots of opportunity. New management team focusing on strong assets that generate cash. Will continue to own. Believes stock price is still under valued. 

Likes both, but their stories differ. SU holds Oil Sands which have a long reserve life. The new executives are doing a great job fixing problems. VRN is a conventional producer in the Duvernay and Montney with shorter reserves. Both are undervalued--though VRN is more likely to go higher, though VRN is more volatile.

Likes both, but their stories differ. SU holds Oil Sands which have a long reserve life. The new executives are doing a great job fixing problems. VRN is a conventional producer in the Duvernay and Montney with shorter reserves. Both are undervalued--though VRN is more likely to go higher, though VRNs more volatile.