Opinions
Eric Nuttall
Veren
VRN-T
PAST TOP PICK
Mar 11, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Hit pretty hard. Last quarter threw people off, with worries over growth. Otherwise, good drilling success. Great transition to Duvernay and Montney. Cheap valuation. Debt paid down to target, so more $$ (about 75% of cashflow) to shareholders.
Frustrating year, but that creates opportunity. Final opportunity will be M&A throughout the sector.
Very cheap relative to peers. Oil patch, as a group, has a problem in that Trump is going to encourage drilling, which means a lot more competition. OK balance sheet, as is production and cashflow-per-share growth.
We're in the midst of tax-loss selling, with so much pressure to pay less capital gains tax. People are just dumping stocks that are, otherwise, decent buys. All things being equal, will have a pop in January.
It was rangebound in 2022-2023, but has recently broken to new lows. Not a great chart. Note that the energy chart (XEG) has been in a choppy trading range the past year with little real movement. But money managers seeking dividends have been moving out of telcos and into energy, which are now worth considering. Veren looks weak, though.
It's gone through a huge transformation from Crescent Point Energy, which created bad memories. But Veren is very different and offers huge upside. Caveat: Veren is tied to the price of oil. Crude oil needs to stay around $75+ for Veren to really work. Their cost structure and balance sheet are sound.
If you assume oil prices go up, and assume they all execute well, which is the buy right now? He likes the upfront dividend. VRN is cheapest on price and financial metrics. Production outlook posted a few days ago is quite positive.
Not sure if the easiest thesis is to buy energy right now with Trump trying to attack the price of oil. But within the group, this is a name that works pretty well.
He likes the WCP-Veren deal. Both were already decent companies, but together will enjoy synergy from cost savings. It will become the 4th-largest light oil producer in Canada. Management knows what it's doing, valuation good. Bigger companies here tend to enjoy a multiple increase. Veren shareholder will receive the WCP dividend, a big increase for them. The combined company will do pretty well.
Fell on disappointing data from fracking, which made market skeptical about quality of assets in the Montney. A return to old way of fracking would restore market's faith. Taken out by WCP, and he likes that deal. Over time, thinks the new entity will be meaningfully rerated when market's risk-on again.
A year ago they had finished many years of buying companies, built inventories, and drilling economic wells in the Montney. Last year, they tried and failed using a new frack technique. So, they spent on that, and got punished. He's their largest shareholder. The new Whitecap deal: WCP is almost stealing this asset, being opportunistic as they should. Veren identified high quality rock, but screwed up that opportunity. This merger is very complimentary: big asset overlap. WCP gets a very high quality asset at a cheap price (due to market volatility). Size matters; big institutions have left mid-caps for dead. The new company will be the 6th/7th-largest producer in Canada with a safe 9% dividend (down to $51 oil) will force big institutions to look. At $70 oil, this boasts 3.1x cash flow, 17% free cash flow yield, and over 20 years of stay-flat, high-quality inventory. WCP will recoup yesterday's 15% losses.