Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV-N)

Not cheap enough for him. Likes that it's a monopoly business. Loves the business and the business model. If we get a recession, stock has a long way to fall.

A lot of NA stocks look like this chart; massive rally from August to Jan/Feb, and then a big tumble. 200-day MA is $116, and it's encouraging that it seemed to bounce right off. So far, getting support and starting to come back. One of the bigger names in consumer discretionary, and cyclical.

Not only the cyclical retailers, but also defensive retail like WMT and COST, got hit hard in the last few weeks. Suggests people were getting concerned about consumer spending, and with good reason. Uncertainty on tariffs, plus huge slowdown on government spending which takes $$ out of the economy. Broad-based corporate profit warnings.

Significant pullback. Live events are still booming. Regulatory noise from DOJ lawsuit, and that could drag on. If LYV loses, would really dent margins. Record concert demand and venue control could lift 2025 revenue. Value scores 2/10. Wait for turnaround conviction.

Down 27% from recent highs just last month. An opportunity to buy, though there might be more choppiness ahead. Right at 200-day MA, could be a support level. High growth with 12-15% earnings growth. Bit pricey at 35x forward PE, but it has a near-monopoly on tickets and concert space. 

Decline due to lots of growth stocks falling, plus concerns about consumer.

Loves the CEO, who is a tremendous capital allocator. Despite pressure from DOJ and consumers, management is trying to make the company invincible. Buying and building venues across the globe -- they want to own the experience end-to-end. 

Company sees no slowdown in consumer spending, and EM potential is just in its infancy. Will be a bit bumpy due to anti-trust lawsuit, but it's profitable with lots of growth ahead. No dividend.

Under Trump, it's less likely for the Justice Department to pursue an anti-trust suit against LYV.

Despite being sued by DOJ, what matters is fundamentals. Concert business is very strong. Doing all the right things. CEO is a tremendous allocator of capital. Has never had a down year, even in a recession.

Lots of overhang. Prices have certainly increased. Lots of political pressure on how tickets are sold. Government may step in and impose regulations. He likes names without those threats. Chart is volatile.

Concert business is on fire. Stock's been on a rollercoaster due to being sued by DOJ on anti-trust allegations. Pressure short term, but long-term a wonderful business. Great management and free cashflow growth.

The government regulators are after them (anti-trust) which is never a good thing.

One of the crown jewels in the experience economy. They have a strangehold on live concerts, being the only public in this space. People keep going to events and increasing. Looks at Taylor Swift. He sees a new high soon.

They control almost all the live venues for concerts. Demand and schedule for concerts remains huge, like Canadians seeing Taylor Swift in other countries.

LYV is up 21% this year, which we would not consider so bad. Sales have tripled since 2020 in the covid rebound, and are expected to rise about 10% next year. Concert sales rose 29% last quarter. There are some legal issues, regarding concentration in the industry and investigations by the government, but otherwise we do not see a lot of issues. At 75X earnings, however, the stock is too expensive to get us really interested. 
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