Cargojet Inc (CJT.TO)

Does have a moat. Does most of the AMZN shipping. Very capital-intensive, and investors need to be aware of that. Stock got far too cheap. CEO transition. Most things are up this year, and investors are looking for tax-loss selling candidates. Take that away, and he sees it being up 10-15% in January.

As trade normalizes, should see reacceleration in growth. Trades ~15x PE for 2027, modelling ~14% growth. Not a bad name to add to right now.

Trucking and transportation are struggling right now. Tariffs have caused volumes to fall. If you think that tariffs will recede at some point, or a deal gets done between Canada and the US, then this could be a wonderful opportunity. It depends how it fits in your portfolio.

Right now facing headwinds, so investors are selling off. Plus it's tax-loss selling season.

Has never owned this one, and wouldn't even now. Being hit by weak demand for deliveries because of tariffs and weakening retail consumer. A capital-intensive industry, so reduced volumes really hit bottom line. In transportation, she usually sticks with the rails.

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More overseas (because of the DHL agreement) than north-south. A lot into China. Decimated on recent numbers. Analysts take numbers down, and then the multiple goes down, so you get a double-whammy on the stock on the downside. Creates a great buying opportunity, trading at 6x forward operating cashflow (compared to its usual 8-15x). 

Great long-term contracts. Reduced capex. Clear risk is demand in the short term, but it's cheap, already reflecting the bad news, and worth a shot. Likes to buy stocks when they're beaten up; you may not catch the bottom, but you're mitigating your downside risk. Eventually, globalization of trade will return. Yield is 2.03%.

This freight deliverer enjoyed the Covid years when people were buying many packages, but shares have slumped after Covid. Is very well-run, and could do very well from here. It's too small for him to own.

Trucking volumes are down, even within the US. Transportation is under fire, as is discretionary spending. Three-year chart shows bottoming at $80 in 2023 and 2025. Today we're around $84. Concern is if it breaks below (bad sign).

Air cargo. Solid management. 90% market share in Canada. Revenue has doubled over past 5 years. EBITDA has increased by ~$200M. Quality customers. 68 Canadian cities plus international charters. Volumes not as high as previously, but still making $$ and utilizing planes efficiently. When volumes pick up, won't need to spend capex on new planes. 

Debt's come down. Very cheap. An unloved Canadian stock, so he's here to show it some love. Yield is 1.50%.

Tariffs impact them. Solidly buying on weakness. Nobody will replicate them in Canada. Once the Canadian economy picks up, CJT will do very well. PE is attractive now.

Likes companies with recurring and predictable cashflows. Very volatile business, and you can see this in a long-term chart. Too tough to predict. You only need to own a few stocks, so you might as well own those you can predict with some degree of certainty.

The chart shows a downtrend, being a laggard, but lately is starting to catch up. You can nibble at here. If we're starting a new economic cycle now, it will be positive for CJT and the economy. Expect weakness in a pullback coming. Play the long game and start adding to this now, but gradually.

Heck of a runup till the end of 2020, then dropped significantly. Looks to be picking up, with some nice volume. Taking a bit of a pause right now. Might get to $100-105 by the end of the year. Be very careful if it drops below $83. Still on a long-term downward trend.

Economic uncertainty contributed to the pullback and it is down quite a bit. It is a secure, slow and steady type of company. It has a dominant position in the overnight courier business in Canada. It is in a range where you could start to accumulate.

EPS of $1.62 beat estimates of $1.02; revenue of $250M missed estimates of $255M. EBITDA of $80.8M matched estimates. Revenue rose 8.1%. Earnings rose 56%. Commentary implied that 'more goods would be coming into Canada from around the world to mitigate the uncertainty of tariffs'. The stock had a good bounce on the news but remains down 20% YTD. It is decently-priced at 14X earnings but there is still some economic risk here. We think $83 would be a decent price. 
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