Stockchase Insights Cargojet Inc CJT-T BUY ON WEAKNESS May 02, 2025

It had a big downtrend from late 2021 to late 2023. Like the rails, this has come off sharply of late. There's likely more downside coming. If the stock breaks above the August low around $115, you can add more. Now, we'll likely see a bounce to that $115 resistance, but doubt this will rise above that. 

He just trimmed target due to additional capex. EBITDA up 10%, nice. He is worried about tariffs on this name. Always trades a bit pricey. Expects 11% EPS growth, trades at 19.5x. Could probably get cheaper, but good grower over time.

If you think tariffs will go away, good technical level to start nibbling at.

Volatile. Won't benefit from tariffs, as they claim. Very well run, though, and they dominate this space in Canada, but there's little room to grow. Meanwhile, there is intense competition internationally, so also hard to grow.

Economic uncertainty contributed to the pullback and it is down quite a bit. It is a secure, slow and steady type of company. It has a dominant position in the overnight courier business in Canada. It is in a range where you could start to accumulate.

Heck of a runup till the end of 2020, then dropped significantly. Looks to be picking up, with some nice volume. Taking a bit of a pause right now. Might get to $100-105 by the end of the year. Be very careful if it drops below $83. Still on a long-term downward trend.

The chart shows a downtrend, being a laggard, but lately is starting to catch up. You can nibble at here. If we're starting a new economic cycle now, it will be positive for CJT and the economy. Expect weakness in a pullback coming. Play the long game and start adding to this now, but gradually.

Likes companies with recurring and predictable cashflows. Very volatile business, and you can see this in a long-term chart. Too tough to predict. You only need to own a few stocks, so you might as well own those you can predict with some degree of certainty.

Tariffs impact them. Solidly buying on weakness. Nobody will replicate them in Canada. Once the Canadian economy picks up, CJT will do very well. PE is attractive now.

Air cargo. Solid management. 90% market share in Canada. Revenue has doubled over past 5 years. EBITDA has increased by ~$200M. Quality customers. 68 Canadian cities plus international charters. Volumes not as high as previously, but still making $$ and utilizing planes efficiently. When volumes pick up, won't need to spend capex on new planes. 

Debt's come down. Very cheap. An unloved Canadian stock, so he's here to show it some love. Yield is 1.50%.