Capstone Mining Corp.

It is on his watch list. It has been there for a number of years. It has not done very much but once in a while it perks his interest. He is going to do a review in the next couple of weeks and it may move it up then.

He doesn’t follow this and hasn’t read a recent balance sheet.

He doesn’t follow this stock actively. It’s involved in copper, ranks around 550 in his 700-stock database. PE reasonable. Earnings are expected to rocket from 2 cents to 19 cents this year and then drop back in 2019. Free cash flow is positive, but there have been downward estimate revisions. The estimate of lower earnings in 2019 is the primary investor concern for this stock. (Analysts’ price target is 2.10$)

(A Top Pick Jan 6/17. Up 4%.) Still quite positive on base metals, including zinc and copper. Now people are chatting up copper and saying that if car sales hit the number that the electric car makers are suggesting, then copper would be in short supply.

You would think that this would do a little better, but it is very volatile. That is really tied to the higher cost structure. Very leveraged to copper prices. A little less detached from very specific operational issues. They had 3 North American mines. Nice growth profile, but very sensitive to copper prices given the elevated cost structure. Not his way of doing things. Low cost structure wins in any environment.

(Top Pick Jan 6/17, Up .75%) It did a U-turn. It will benefit from base metal prices over the next couple of years.

He likes their operating performance, but hates their balance sheet. There are easier ways to make money in copper mining with companies that have lower financial leverage.

Hold or Sell? A high cost producer in the $2.20-$2.30 range, all-in costs for its copper production. A very high beta stock with strong reaction to the price of copper. They had a pretty good 4^th quarter and were able to generate some free cash flow, which was encouraging. This is kind of in the “wait and see” box.

This has done well but charts show it getting a little toppy. Longer-term, this is a play on copper. Copper prices look like they have broken out recently, which would be quite positive for a lot of Canadian mining and copper companies over the coming 12 months. Ranks in the top 3% of his database.

This has just become free cash flow positive. Cash flow grew by $.21 on a year-over-year basis and is now basically breakeven. They have $158 million in cash on hand, 32% of their market cap, so their ability to service their debt from free cash flow looks pretty good. Trading at 6.7X enterprise value to EBITDA, 4^th quarter trailing. (Analysts’ price target is $1.36.)

Copper has had an enormous run, up over 20% in the last 3 weeks or so. Thinks it has had too much of a run and doesn’t see it being sustainable. This has decent fundamentals, but he thinks copper will pull back. However, in general, you want to be in some of the material names, and he would rate Teck Resources (TCK.B-T) much higher than this company.

This really depends on your view on copper. Copper is probably in the process of bottoming at the $2 range. If so this one should survive. A tough balance sheet, so one of the riskier plays. A safer play would probably be Hudbay Mining (HBM-T) which has zinc, copper, growth in assets and growth in production. Also, the balance sheet is in better shape.

(Market Call Minute) It will survive if copper does not break below $2.

He was buying this one this week. They upped their copper production. Their balance sheet is a little stretched, however. The market was reflecting the absolute worst for copper producers. There is not a lot of political risk. It is a small sized producer building into a mid-sized producer. He wanted to put some money into the sector into one of the higher torqued names and this was it.

It is a difficult environment with copper prices coming off. It is going to be a tough go here. This is smaller some other names. If you believe copper prices are going to come back, then this one has more leverage to copper. If copper prices stay low for another year this one could be at risk.