A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

How long should you watch a new ETF until it gets to an appropriate level of liquidity before buying? The key thing is the viability of the fund. Usually within a year if the fund does not have $30-50 Million in assets than it won't be making a lot of money. BMo does not have that concern. When new ETFs come out, they have lots of runway. Usually ETFs have the liquidity of the underlying holdings.

Educational Segment. The Energy Sector. The TSX is 18% energy. The world is 5% and the US is 5.85%. Canada has a big bet on energy. It is 39% of the index in Norway. The energy sector in 2012 was 26.2% in Canada and a little over 10% in the rest of the world. It means that sector has been under performing and he does not see any change. In 2011 the US shale fracking boom started. It has been a struggle ever since for oil prices. He believes that oil is going to be centered around $50 for a long time to come. US pipelines are the place to be as they will be full for years and years to come. Canada will under perform because our governments don't like pipelines.

Market. Recession fears were overdone last December. Recessions don't happen as much as they used to in a service based economy. In the US they have only ever seen the economy go 10 years without recession, but in other countries around the world, the UK for example, has gone 15; Australia is in their 28th year of economic expansion.

Uranium has been a very tough place to be. Don't buy the companies. He would just buy the Uranium participation units (UPC-T). At some point it is going to rise.

We shouldn't be fooled with the current big bouce off December sell-off. We are creating a top now and then become choppy, but we're at the top of the range now. The first stop in a pullback would be 24,000 on the Dow, then 21,000 is the BIG drop-off, but he does not expect that. The Dow may fall 1,000-1,500 then will regroup. He would take profits now. Reward yourself with some victories. Boeing was down 5% today after the Ethiopian crash yesterday. He expected a deeper pullback for Boeing actually, though the company isn't out of the woodwork yet. Apple was up 3.5% today, and tech also had a big day today. Tech still looks great. Apple is underperforming compared to peers. SNC Lavalin: buy it now after being beat up. It's oversold because of politics.

Besides support and resistance levels, what technical indicators do you use to pick entry and exit points? Also, what volume indicator to follow? He looks 50-, 100- and 200-averages, plus 19-year charts. Volume is big. He needs to see a confirmation of volume. Always watch the spikes.

Gold? It's been in a range of $1,100-1,400 for years. Exit at the top end and buy at the low. Now, it's stuck at $1,300. Gold isn't a safe haven anymore, but rather trades like a stock now.

Oil is down today based on weak US job numbers, Chinese trade data, and the announcement of the Norwegian State Fund selling a large portion of energy investments. This contributes to negative sentiment. We are in a market still where people are looking to not invest in the sector. Oil is up 25% YTD (excluding today) and yet some stocks are still down YTD. This has been a challenging sector for too long. Companies need to start doing significant share buybacks. The valuations are the lowest he has ever seen, they are insane.

Market. It is a big change from how we ended the year. He is on the more cautious side. It is great to see a 'V' shaped recovery but he thinks a there is not a lot that has changed. We were overdue for a correction. The strength of the recovery makes him say that we are back to the point where we need another correction. The US market is healthy. When you break it down you find it is a small group of stocks. He thinks it is healthy that those stocks have retreated.

Early Forties, no debt. How to construct portfolio. Start with investing in what you understand. Keep it to a time tested recipe. Time-tested dividends are the way to go. ETFs are recommended. Keep it simple. Start with the US market. As capital grows start to become more customized.

Geopolitical risk, BREXIT. Can low correlated assets become more correlated? He thinks so in public markets. Often when one market goes down, they all go down. You need to look at private assets.

U.S. market were cool today and having its weakest week so far in 2019. We need a little pause after a great run in America, while the TSX is outperforming them and holding at 16,000. If oil comes back, then Canada will really outperform. No, oil won't disappear in the next decade as soon advisors believe. Not at all. Europe will continue to have problems, lumping along, though Italy is a worry. Overall, Europe matters less and less in the big picture. Does Europe really affect us now? He's more interested in what happens in China, India, Korea and even Brazil. He's convinced there'll be a US-China deal and normal relations will return, though the Richardson canola oil ban is troubling. He feels the projections of growth in Canada are overstated; a rise in oil prices would help, of course.

The cannabis space Approach with great caution. The U.S. states and even federal may approve more cannabis use--and the U.S. market is far bigger than ours. Our cannabis stocks will likely go south. He would sell.

Canadian banks in 2019 In the past, he's been super-positive about Canadian banks. Recently, he's lowered GDP growth in Canada to below 2% this year. In terms of earnings, the glory days for ther banks have passed. Only BMO had recently good earnings. He took profits in his BMO holding. He's gone from positive to neutral about Canadian banks.

A quiet day today. The markets need a major headline to spark trading. He expects a China-US trade deal soon, and Trump will call it a victory regardless of the terms. A deal is priced in. The Bank of Canada held rates today, telling the market that they won't do anything in 2019. He's still more optimistic about interest rates in the U.S. which will push the USD a little higher. Canadian oil is not in an abysmal state, though the line 3 Enbridge news was a surprise. That said, he expects line 3 will happen. He prefers Canadian stocks tied to the U.S. (TD is his largest holding). In Canada, he likes utilities and REITs--the interest-rate sensitive yield plays.