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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
Canadian REITs. REITs in general are good in the portfolio but he would not go 'gaga' on them. Canada has had inappropriately low monetary policy. In general Canadian real estate is very expensive. It is an okay building block because of the income potential. XRE-T groups the Canadian REITs. But there are better opportunities around the world.
COMMENT
How much leverage does the US have in the trade negotiations? They have greater leverage than China does. China isn't going to sell US treasuries, as that would make their situation worse. China owes a lot of US debt, and they can't sell it or it would destroy their own economy. Problem is that Trump negotiating through Twitter is backing China into a corner, and China is very proud. It will work its way through the political process, and people will forget all about the recent dustup.
COMMENT
Buy the dip? He doesn't pay a lot of attention to day to day markets. The market's not trading at outrageous prices. Profits will only be down 1.5% this year. The sky is not falling. This is not a positive, and we don't know how investor psychology will affect the markets, but Americans are spending money, so it's not the end of the world.
COMMENT
Opinion on Canadian banks. Canadian banks are fine. Good dividends, reasonable valuations, well capitalized, earnings have grown rapidly. Only real issue is probably can't keep growth rate going. Growth rate in mortgages and consumer credit will be slower than historically. But it doesn't mean they're bad investments. Real estate valuations are reasonable, despite the big centres like Toronto and Vancouver.
COMMENT
Asset mix in a TFSA. Capital gains are the most useful tool in a TFSA. If you put 100% in equities, with a 5-year view or more, you'd do better than putting it in fixed income. Buy 2 or 3 stocks. Don't worry about the timing too much, as long as you can stay disciplined. Treat it as you would buying your house.
COMMENT
Market Outlook Uber has gone public now and is trading without a hitch -- especially during the worst week in the market this year. Its market cap is already huge. For the market as a whole, trade fears with China have reemerged. The odds seem low that the trade delegation will have any major positive announcements this week. The markets appear to be taking it in stride, but we should expect to see some continued downward pressure. The US has a strong economy and the upper hand on China, he thinks. President Trump is also trying to pressure another rate cut.
Jason MannUnknown
COMMENT
"Sell in May, go away" strategy. The market actually trades higher over the summer months. Sell in May strategy gives 64% less of a return than just buy and hold. Gains tend to be larger from October to May. Lower your risk during the summer, by owning sectors such as healthcare, agriculture, staples, utilities, REITs, energy. Have to be more tactical in the off-season.
COMMENT
Analysis on oil. Was bullish on oil from end of January to a couple of weeks ago. Strong demand fundamentals were driving the price. Overhang is a supply glut. Expects to see price supported at $60-62 and then a move higher from there during summer driving season. Demand is there and should support it over the long term.
COMMENT
MACD explanation. Stands for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. A momentum indicator. Want to see the convergence do better on different time scales. When momentum is trending higher, a crossover is a trigger to buy, a crossover below is a trigger to sell. He looks for divergences to see if there's waning buying or selling demand for a stock. Momentum negatively diverging from price is typically a precursor to a downturn.
N/A
Market. He radically cut equities over the last week from 100% to 25%. The market does not do well for the next 6 months: 'sell in May and go away'. The down drafts this time of year tend to be longer and deeper. On the S&P we are trading today below the 50 day moving average. The market might be losing momentum.
Brooke ThackrayUnknown
N/A
Recommendation on an inverse ETF for oil and gas in the US. He does not know of one. You should be careful of inverse ETFs. Watch out for your time period. It is okay for a short period. He has no US recommendation.
Brooke ThackrayUnknown
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