A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Market Outlook. A five year chart of the S&P500 shows almost an uninterrupted rally into 2018. A triple top is being made against previous highs of last September has some analysts concerned. The last time we tested these highs we followed with big declines. He expects we will make new fresh highs before the summer begins, which could lead to another bullish phase. A break below 2700 is worrisome.

Market. Most technical indicators he follows have seen a huge improvement since the lows on December 24th. He is waiting for economical data to accelerate to give him the all-clear. He is much closer to fully invested than before. He has moved from defensive back to offensive. Now we are seeing long term indicators that the uptrend is not just a recovery in a bear market but will push to higher highs. Due to sentiment indicators, he would not be surprised to see choppy trading through April.

M&A in Cannabis sector. The pace of acceleration is going up in M&A. He thinks there will be a lot more activity this year.

Canadian Healthcare Space. Biotech is such a hard area to invest in. If they have a single or couple of products, their returns are quite binary. When he invests in these he looks for diversification in portfolios or products out there. He would recommend Knight Therapeutics.

Market Outlook - We are 13% up YTD on the MSI All-Country World index. We are only 2.3% from the September 2018 high. Dovish picture from the Fed helps push the stock market. We could see a consolidation phase here. But if a China-US trade deal goes through all bets are off and it will go higher. In Q1 earnings slowed down a little. Labor market is still decent. Lots of people talk about a recession, he thinks it is more of a soft patch. The reliable part of the yield curve you have to look at is the 2 yr and 10 yr. Historically if you look at that relation in the last 5 times that that curve inverted, the S&P did well after it inverted - didn't peak for 19 months on average after it inverted and was up 22% on average. He is now shifting to defensive sectors like Consumer Staples, Health Care and low Beta sectors.

Concerns about market as a whole? Fundamentally, a green light. Technically, warning signals. Entering a blackout period for buybacks. About 85% of S&P 500 can't buy back, so that takes away some support.

What technical indicators jump out at you? Especially the 50-day moving average. Longest period we've been above the first 5% band, and that's been going on for 2 months now.

Harvesting big data, how do you play that theme? It's massive, and touches on lots of strategic trends. Communications, 5G, data processing. Huge, huge business. 3.8 trillion dollars of spending this year.

They continue to move higher towards all-time highs, but we have a recession obsession with the yield curve. Everybody is twisting this curve to make a point, but it doesn't matter. It means the economy is slowing. Predicting a recession is like driving in a fog--you don't know when you're in it. Perhaps at some point be more defensive and get away from growth and momentum stocks. Also, "sell in May."....USMCA has been a mess (and US-China) with a lot of question marks and dis-information with Trump saying it's going well, when it may not. You can't base a portfolio around this...Semis are an important sector--they underperformed in October which was a sign of the wider market, and since there's been a sharp rally outperforming the market. Semis are a canary in the coalmine, so watch it if it rolls-over, because they could signal a risk-off market.

Gold July-Sept. and end-Dec. to February are gold's seasonal periods. The Chinese are now big consumers of gold, overtaking the Indians. This pattern happened in 2017 and 2018. The next few months are not the time to buy gold. Maybe late-June.

How do you measure relative strength (RSI)? RSI is a mometum indicator that he doesn't use that much, but when he does, he compares RSI to a stock's relative strength to the market.

Market a year from now. Didn't fully understand the dip, but now we're 2% off the highs. Higher probability to see it breakout to the upside, not the downside. Though we may be in a range for a while. The wait just got longer for a 3.5-4% bond. He's been 0 weight in the interest sensitives (REITs, utilities) for a while. The risk on these has been to the upside, so they've tried to avoid that.

Favourite Canadian bank. Hard to choose among them. Tailwind is gone with interest rates not going up. For next nine months will be very resilient. TD dividend is close to 4%, and it's fine to buy, but that's not his favourite right now. See his top picks today. The big 6 have an oligopoly, so he tries never to go down the risk curve on Canadian banks and go outside those 6, he would go global instead.

Market Outlook - The main thing right now is that the US had the best quarter since 2009 in Q1. The US is the only place to be. Europe is still a mess. The whole issue of the inverted yield curve with low interest rates is not so much a problem. Worse case it means just that a recession is likely. Nothing about when, how big, for how long. If you are trying to leap in and out of the market, you are going to get burnt. If you do that, it is because you don't have a strategy to deal with the volatility. He is set on his core positions at the moment with the covered calls on. You never know with Donald Trump but he is very pro-business. The whole Brexit issue is a mess.

General question on Gold in light of the huge global debt - The only thing that gold does now is reflect the strengths or weakness of the US dollar. The US debt is huge but a lot is owned by themselves through different agencies. The gold bugs are waiting for the Apocalypse (and he thinks that they are hoping for it). He hasn't held gold for years. None. It doesn't earn any interest. Gold is a dead horse.