A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
Market Outlook He has an investment clock that suggests it is a good time to invest in gold equities. Now that gold producers have cut debt, dividends and costs we should now start to see a recapitalization of the junior mining sector as gold prices have edged back to $1500 per ounce. Smaller transactions are getting done suggesting it is starting to begin. The issue is when will the institutional investors come back in. The divesting of large assets by the large players could suck up some of the capital that could have been directed towards the junior miners -- this could slow the progress of the junior space somewhat.
Joe MazumdarUnknown
COMMENT
He's cautious about markets. Re: US-China trade war: at least we know new tariffs weren't applied, but there remains uncertainty for manufacturers. Also, global macro data indicates sluggishness. So, be cautious. He's a long-term investor, and positive about America. One reason are young demographics there, but also the shale revolution in the oil space. U.S. shale production is far more sensitive to market price to stop and start production....US consumer data today slipped, and US consumers are carrying global health. Watch this data as well US employment numbers.
COMMENT
Portfolio diversification: Why can't I follow the Buffet model and hold 10 names to make up 80% of a portfolio? Why should I hold 15-30 stocks? It depends on the person. Buffet can endure long drawdowns without taking out capital, but most investors can't afford to do that. Also, it depends on what's happening in the markets in the past year or so. We're transitioning from growth/defensive to heavy defensive in the past 6-12 months. Don't make accidental bets--make bets you only want to make, as simple as that sounds.
COMMENT
He predicts money will flood into America (and its dollar) in the coming years. He's overweight US dollars. Where else can you go? Europe? Japan? No. We're entering earnings season, thank goodness, and not headlines. He doesn't know if Trump will be re-elected, contrary to the consensus that he will.
COMMENT
His Canadian large caps are doing well except Rogers, but the small caps are getting whipped around--which means opportunities to add to industrials and consumer discretionaries. Just in: Aritzia reported a serious earnings beat with same-store sales growth. JNJ has been battered by lawsuits, but he's been picking away at it to build a long-term position. What legal company should he invest in, given all these lawsuits?
COMMENT
Market Outlook TOU-T is planning to spin off some of their infrastructure into a royalty like offering, while retaining 80% of the value. Prior to this the stock was trading at all time lows and the market was giving zero value to the infrastructure they held. The company was trading at 3 times cash flow. The assets they are effectively selling are being valued at 9 times cash flow within the offering. This should remind people how undervalued this space is and there are self-adjusting opportunities that will "fix the funk" we see today. ARX-T has a similar 20% of its company in similar infrastructure. Once we get past the upcoming Federal election things should move forward. What a party says on the campaign trail and what happens in reality can be two very different things. The Liberals appear to support the TMX pipeline project in reality and it will ultimately get built, he says. 11% of our GDP in Canada comes from the energy sector.
Eric NuttallUnknown
COMMENT
Back to highs again with the expectations that the US and China will get some things done. The NSADAQ was up around 2%, with a smaller inverted yield curve. Technology, industrials and everything with China was up. Consumer stocks fell. China has only said that they would buy soy beans again. Patents and safety are another thing, and this is where they need to agree.
David DriscollUnknown
COMMENT
Normally you see sell-offs in September and October. It's a good time to watch when the sell-off is done and it's a buying opportunity. Things tend to be better in Q4 than in Q1.
David DriscollUnknown
N/A
Market. He forecasts an inventory build on oil and then due to Saudi attacks, a risk premium comes in. He thinks we will break $50 in the next month or so. Tax loss selling should be very severe this year. Investors should look to be buyers on tax loss selling this year.
Josef SchachterUnknown
N/A
Electric cars: We will not use them for long distance. There are about 100 million electric vehicles sold a year. Reserves are shrinking and we are running out of reserves to service the remaining gas vehicles.
Josef SchachterUnknown
COMMENT
Optimistic about trade talks? No. Tomorrow's the deadline, and doesn't imagine major ground will be broken. Some feel Trump needs a symbolic win. This is much ado about nothing. Investors can put too much emphasis on political drama, and not enough on economic fundamentals. These are pretty good in the US, but there is general macro economic uncertainty.
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