A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

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Market. This is a tough market to call. He forecast that the S&P low would be 2175 last month. It was two times book value and it was where the market bottomed in 2002 and in fact the market bottomed there this time. Value is running into stimulus. Most market commentaries are in two camps. The fundamentalists are saying we've had it because there is not much left and the technicians are saying the sky's the limit and there are no ceilings. His productivity-of-debt graph shows that if you load more and more debt on top of an economy there is a point at which it becomes so heavy that it starts to push the economy's growth to zero and then if it falls through there it has a difficult time recovering. It is going to be increasingly difficult for the economy to recover strongly because of the pure weight of the debt sitting on it.
WATCH

Uranium Sector. Has the bull started running? His proxy is CCO-T. If there is a bullish case for Uranium, the analysts have not heard it. U-T is up 66% so had had quite a move. He hopes the analysts will get the same message he is about the outlook for uranium.

HOLD
The banks are a good choice. He is not concerned about their dividends. He does not see dividends being cut. As long as the market stays above 2.5 times book value we will be okay. It is about 2650 on the S&P.
COMMENT
Market Outlook The two things they have been focusing on most is making sure the businesses they invest in will be solvent during the duration of the shutdowns and what companies will succeed and thrive going forward. They need to have certain essentials needed by the market and have a good cash reserve. The month of March showed the correlation among all sectors and assets went to 1. Now, we are starting to see some separation. Certain sectors are starting to shake out giving investors a better idea what businesses will do well going forward. Utilities and pipelines offer good yields (3-6%) and act as core holdings for them on a diversified basis.
COMMENT
REITs have been reporting that 60-80% of renters with small businesses did not require rent assistance last month. That worries him as we are really only one month into the lock downs. Absent any further government relief the real estate asset classes he prefers holding are apartment buildings and US industrial warehousing.
COMMENT

Big 6 Canadian Banks? Their view has been for the past few years that the environment for banks was becoming challenged as interest rates moved towards zero. The upcoming recession will make things worse. He has holdings still with TD and RY. In Japan, where interest rates have been at zero for a long time, bank stocks there have not done well. He sees the same issue for banks in the US, but feels the Canadian banks will do a little better, but like sprinting the wind. Be cautious about being too overly exposed to any one bank.

COMMENT

Investors need to look past this unknown period. Find great businesses on sale that can weather the storm and step into them. There are many unknowns, namely governments' ballooning deficits. He's surprised by the recent rally, but won't predict the future. Markets tend to test lows after such rallies, so have dry powder handy. In mid-March, he stepped into some companies, then waited. There could very well be another tumble. The pandemic is a new crisis, different from the recession of 2008-9.

COMMENT

For older, long-time investors, ride it out or sell? Make sure you have diversified portfolio with bulletproof stocks in finance, tech, etc. This is the worst possible moment to sell. In historic downturns, you should have stuck them out and bought. Don't watch your stocks obsessively, but watch a movie.

COMMENT

Buy high-yield corporate oil bonds? A great time to invest in them now. In the last 40 years, these bonds have had 8 negative ones; each negative year was followed by a strong up one. Bonds have to mature. They work well in a highly diversified portfolio. However, energy is very and he is avoiding that sector.

COMMENT
Is it a bad omen for all stocks with oil this low? No. Low oil means a weak economy, which is not good for stocks.
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Market. It's difficult to make any macro forecast with any level of certainty. China is starting to get back to work. Others are looking like they are coming through. The big challenge is all the fiscal stimulus and its impact. Will remote working become a new 'thing'? These are a lot of unknowns. The Saudis and the Russians caused a number of hedge funds to blow up. The oversupply strategy has come to an end. There is a complete disconnect to supply, price, and demand. We may not see a normalized pricing environment for oil until Q4.
COMMENT
Market Outlook The energy sector has been very hard hit and much relief is needed. First and for most, financial backstopping is necessary with banks to not pull out financing away from the sector. The market is one of the toughest with so many range of outcomes possible. Could we see more and more waves of the virus through the economy. It depends on the ability of the government to test, find a vaccine and other support. He thinks the tech sector will be the positive stand outs. You can also look to sectors that will not likely become impaired such as medical devices, healthcare procedures, etc.
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Market. There is a real risk of weakness in the markets in the weeks ahead. He is taking a longer approach and thinks he is seeing that in some of the economic numbers. Jobless numbers are still fairly high. 15% of our economy comes from housing in Canada. The number of mortgage deferrals is very high. Canada poses a risk on the housing side.
COMMENT
Market Outlook The Canadian Central bank is seeing stress in the corporate market and has decided to do quantitative easing, including buying back government and corporate bonds. Gold has had a big break out move and one of the only places to be lately. He thinks there are spaces that have also benefited from the at home situation we are in and will likely be the ultimate winners going forward. He sees companies that will also just keep chugging along, some that will face issues and some that you must stay away from. He would stay away from cruise companies and airlines for example. He thinks the market is rebounding in general as the initial shock to the market, particularly regarding credit issues. When the US Fed brought in QE in a bazooka like way and there was Federal legislation to keep people whole, it put floor under the market. You do not want to fight the Fed Reserve.
COMMENT
Dividends at risk? Traditionally companies have done what is best for shareholders and there is a growing movement to consider all those interested -- including investors. If you are relying on dividends for your income, you may want to look to the banks. The government may have a moral obligation to keep cash flowing into investors hands, but there are no guarantees. Trading revenues have been a good offset for bank revenues lost.
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