A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Stock splits Some believe that stock splits create value, but that's not true. Splits allow retail investors to enter, because shares are more affordable to newbie investors. Tesla and Apple are examples where existing shareholders sold a few shares after the split. The time to buy would have been a little time after the split, the post-split pullback, and not immediately when there is a new influx of buyers, as we saw recently.

Year to date, 30 stocks are up more than 100% and another 90 stocks are up more than 40%. However, none of the big 5 have gone up by 100%. The 5 top stocks are up because of speculation from better margins, faster sales and earning growths and less debt. The market is probably stretched. The bond yields will probably go higher. Equities are technically overbought. Trading below the 50-day moving average would signal a correction of around 11%.

The correction may last over 1-2 months, but stocks should rise over the course of the year. There is no other alternative because of low yields from bonds. Stocks offer a compelling argument against bonds or short-term money. Looking at price to earnings growth, the big names are still at reasonable levels.

Volatile markets these days. Tech started strong today then fell. But this volatility won't last. New investors who jumped in will get a rude awakening this month and bow out. When stocks go down, they go down hard. That's why you need to hold cash....Housing has been strong given low rates and government support. Will Lennar turn offices into houses, given the flight to the suburbs? Drug stocks have been horrendous lately given political pressure, but everyone is focused on the vaccine race. But how do you make big money off the vaccine if governments will limit that cost? The market badly needs another stimulus package, which will lift this market doldrum.

The recent sell-off Historically, September strikes fear in investors. We some tremors mid-last week in tech stocks. There are three meanings: 1) the ghost of September is haunting us and foretelling volatility in the COVID year and amid U.S. elections; 2) the cracks in the tech stocks foreshadows a long-awaited rotation into growth and cyclical stocks; and 3) the recent sell-off means nothing at all and sell-offs in FAANGs like Apple are a blip as these stocks continue to rise. Make sure your portfolio is positioned for any of these fates.

Silver outlook after recent run-up He's not a commodities expert, but gold and silver are in primary bull markets. Gold is enigmatic, especially--so, obey what the charts tell you. This means, when gold makes moves, it makes BIG, bold moves, not small ones. Gold could go much higher in years to come. Silver is like high-beta gold with fewer markets and less participation from central banks and ETFs. Silver has more industrial uses than gold, so if there's a broad recovery, silver should do well. We're in the early stages of a recovery, and he expects gold and silver to do well.

When to sell a stock? First, you'll be right and wrong when selling stocks in your lifetime. Don't be emotional over a loss, but determine why--important. Other times, take profits when you have a major winner, but keep a core position. Other times, you rightly thought that a stock would grow, but now the valuation is rich and the catalysts for growth have gone--take your winnings and buy something better.

Put the tech stock weakness in perspective. It's entirely normal, and we see it 3-4 times every year. After the enormous run-up, no one should be surprised about the 3-day drop.

The discounted dividend is one measure of the true value of a stock. Interest rates are close to zero. In the old days, if we discount Apple's dividend by 5%, you can come to some sort of value. But discounted by 1/2 of 1%, the discounted dividend model would suggest that stocks are much more valuable today than when interest rates were higher.

Will we have a directionless market until the result of the US election? Three major areas of uncertainty. Most important is when we might have a Covid vaccine and how effective it will be. Secondly is whether Congress will provide protection for the millions who've lost their jobs. The third thing is the election result and whether it will be respected.

Is the current disparaging of the US election process, with very little evidence, depressing? Depressing and scary. If you value democracy, you have to value the institutions that make democracy viable. If the results are questioned, the entire process is devalued.

Today's bounce-back following the fierce sell-off of tech No surprise there was a rally today--sell-offs tend to last three days, then tech bounces back. But what shocked him was the heavy buying in industrials, retail and especially railroads. We saw a recovery in both COVID and recovery stocks today. Everything. Tech sellers exhausted themselves. It wasn't just a tech rally--industrials and retail had a great move, like Caterpillar. Not to mention Home Depot. Investors circled back to tech names that just had good reports, like Zoom Video. You can't pin the tail on every donkey--sellers ran out of stocks to sell. We don't know the cause of this rebound or if it will last.

Current volatility Are we in a bubble that will burst or buy-and-hold? The solution is to diversity your holdings and invest with humility and caution. Diversification during COVID: put money in a cheap index fund as your foundation, then pick stocks from various industries, like Bristol-Myers and Campbell's Soup because people eat at home. Dupont is down now, but should rise--buy aggressively. The bubble stocks like Zoom Video, their businesses are here to stay, and could turn into the next Shopify and their lofty valuations today will appear smaller in the future. Value cash, so you can buy on weakness. Don't go all in with the bulls. Stay diversified.

September outlook using technical analysis by Carley Garner - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carley_Garner So far, this September is in line with seasonality, as ugly as it has been. It's possible we could see a very bumpy ride to the end of the year, though there may be short-term upside coming. IN march, the S&P broke below its Dec. 2018 low as the Nasdaq held on, then the Nasdaq started rolling, breaking resistance (last seen in 2017) in July. To compare, the S&P tested its resistance only last week then immediately broke down. Both indices have given great returns, driven by FOMO and momentum. As long as it holds above its support at 3,280, the S&P can ride higher in the short term to all-time highs. Long term though, while the Nasdaq's RSI has broken higher to a new high, the S&P's has not. A weekly S&P chart shows this. The S&P's RSI couldn't break 67 even though the S&P made new highs last week. A similar thing happened in January 2018. But there's a strong ceiling of resistance at 3,660 and it's unlikely to break above that. And what if it the S&P fall below 3,280? Answer: a furious correction to as low as 2,750.