A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Today's rally after days of sharp selling It looked like blind buying across the board today, which makes him suspicious considering the geopolitical risk. How do you play the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war? Technically, we're in a downtrend. Today was a bear market bounce.

Today's rally after days of selling Today's bounce wasn't a surprise. It was a blip. It seemed that like sellers were exhausted. But she would not sell on strength, but would stay long, stay invested in quality names with long-term value and strong balance sheets.

Washington warned Beijing it could face devastating sanction if China defies the ban on doing business with Russia. What will happen to stocks? It's scary, a tremendous game of chicken. China has been the growth engine for companies like Apple, SBUX, McDonald's and Nike. What if China becomes a negative, not a place for growth? She likes Google, Meta and Twitter for having no exposure to China.

The soaring price of oil. US bans Russian oil. It appears Putin's Russian army will push on and the west will continue to block Russian oil sales. The west will need to replace that supply somehow. As a growth stock manager, energy is seldom part of his portfolio, but he did add Whitecap and Chevron recently. Canadian energy stocks were cheap even before the invasion and will continue to rise. The risk is a sudden change in the Russian war that reverses the rise in oil prices/stocks. European defence spending will pick up, so North American defence stocks will continue to climb. He owns Raytheon. Overall, he's shocked about the overdone selling in the markets as a whole.

McDonald's--and other western companies en masse--are setting a precedent by pulling investments or ceasing operations--rightly so. God forbid something similar flares between China and Taiwan; it would force the hand of western companies. You must take these geopolitical actions into consider. It's a tail risk.

Educational Segment. When markets are volatile, it is important to look at longer term investment opportunities. In what's selling off, there are areas he likes that are getting attractive now. Clean energy, robotics, cyber security, bio-tech are investible for the next couple years and decades. Emerging markets are also getting interesting.

In a risk-off market, the CAD will weaken because the US is a safe haven. Money is coming out of Europe to the US. Relative to Europe, the CAD is quite strong. The strength in energy is seen as transitory so it has not bolstered the CAD.

The conflict in Ukraine is not good for the world. It is having a material impact on the world. Russia has stepped down their ask in terms of negotiating. Getting closer to a proper negotiation but there is still a lot of confusion.

There is some panic buying in commodities. The world cannot work with current oil prices. It is recessionary and stagflationary. From a bonds and stocks perspective, it adds to the uncertainty. Do not know if last night was the high. Trimming exposure in energy on strength.

We have been in a reflationary environment which is turning into an inflationary one. Inflation erodes purchasing power. You can go to cash but need to own assets that will offset inflation. Commodities are moving into a new structural bull market. Investors are underweight materials and energy. It will take a while for them to re-position. The energy index was down 90% from 2014 to 2020. Could see a pullback but a year to 18 months from now prices should be quite a bit higher for metals and energy. Inflation and higher interest rates will discount future earnings which affects techs, health care and consumer stocks which do well in a dis-inflationary environment. This could go on for a period of time.

The question was on gold. It needed a technical set-up and has consolidated in the past year and a half. Now the upside in gold and silver is significantly higher and shares could go 50 to 100% higher in the next two or three years, along with other commodities.

Today's plunge on worsening news in the Russian invasion of Ukraine There's no bad weather, only bad wardrobe. The current market is not in the same as march/April 2020. Now, we're dealing with the the Fed's hikes, US midterms and the travesty by Russia. Throw in nukes into the conversation. This will be a tough year. You need dividend and covered call stocks to get through this and not rely on tech growth stocks.

Bull or bear? It's tough to call it now. He's cautious. The Fed offered a lot of certainty over rates this week, but he remains very worried about inflation. The VIX is above 30. Lots of headwinds in the short run. The long run is hard to say. It's a bad time to be buying. He's more bearish than bullish. The Fed will raise rates in 2 weeks, but US growth has already started to slow. In the second half of 2022 when the tightening cycle gets underway--and strong employment grows--supply chains should ease and he hopes will moderate inflation, which sets us up nicely int he second half of 2022.

Today's sell-off as the Russian invasion worsens The S&P is in a slight correction, around 10% from the high. In energy and materials, though you don't feel the pain, but if you're int he ARK tech stocks, you are. He's bullish; he's buying dips. The 38% of S&P stocks now in a bear market, well that number was much higher last year. Paramount and Cleveland-Cliffs both fell and those were buying opportunities--those are examples of buying dips. Paramount was down 20% on earnings last week and he called a buy--and he was right. (CC was down 10% on earnings.) If you're in the wrong stocks, you feel terrible now. Build a diversified portfolio! If you can't handle a 10% correction--which happens yearly in tech--then you shouldn't be investing. Look at jobs growth in the US (job numbers beat today). Covid is fading--we don't even talk about it anymore. People will return to offices and factories. He does not see a recession. America, not Europe, does not propel the world economy, and America is doing darn well.