A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Advice for risks on the radar? Take a deep breath. There's lots of hyperbole, sky-is-falling talk. Whether it's geopolitical such as the situation in Russia, which is serious, or something else, these tend to resolve though not after serious damage. Russia's economy is actually smaller than the Canadian economy; it's about the size of Australia. But from an energy standpoint, it certainly has an impact. Higher interest rates and inflation numbers are a little scary. Remember, the dislocations we've seen are severe and will start to rectify. Demand and supply will come together and put a damper on inflation, as will the Fed raising rates. Buying good companies will serve investors well. You can see his firm's article on supply chains at goodreid.com.

Stock's way down, should I buy? Don't be lured by stocks that fall precipitously, as there may be no end in sight. He remembers Nortel. The stock ran up to well over $100, but the price had no relationship to its fundamentals. It fell back, a lot, and he was asked should I buy it now, or how about now? How about at 50%? The percentage only makes sense if the original price has some grounding in value, which this stock didn't. Be very careful about buying something simply because it's a percentage of what it used to be.

Worried when a stock price goes down. The key is to believe in what you own. Own companies with good fundamentals and good growth. The more extreme sentiment gets, the less you should look at the stock price. Stocks spend very little time in fair value. They only spend time there on their way from the extreme of overvalued to the other extreme of undervalued. You own the company, not the stock price. Time will take care of the irrational behaviour that impacts the stock price. Be patient.

Buy the dip? No. Your MO should be sell the rallies, as there's a lot of uncertainty out there. He's been pretty defensive. The unrealized losses in his portfolios are offset by the unrealized gains in the hedge. So YTD, he'd down only 1.8%, which is better than the market. Good news is that the upside in his stocks is getting longer, so he's getting quite excited by the volatility in the market.

Where's the stability right now? It comes from actively managing your portfolio vs. the last dozen years where 85% of the time the market would go up. Especially with inflationary concerns, rising interest rates, and geopolitical concerns. It's more of a trading environment than an investing environment.

A scary time for new investors. You just have to have some trading tools in your bag to protect your portfolio. He shorts the equity indices, as it neutralizes the portfolio.

Semiconductor segment of a portfolio. The segment has 4 moving pieces: designers, foundries, manufacturers, equipment suppliers. For example, you can have a designer, represented by NVDA. Then a foundry like TSM. Hold a manufacturer like a MU. Than add a supplier like LRCX, KLAC, or AMAT.

EV car manufacturer suggestion? All beaten up lately. He'd go back to BYD, which is an ADR on NYSE. Good runway, massive company. Biggest EV and battery manufacturer in China. See his comments today.

Today's rally after days of selling Nothing has changed. The theme now is you sell rallies in contrast to pre-Thanksgiving when you bought sell-offs. Inflation is probably much higher than the official rate, so the Fed is 2-3 years behind. The Fed is no longer backstoppping this market.

Bitcoin $46,000ish is the 200-day moving average, then traded down to $38,000 recently, now back up. Buy it at a breakout above $46,000 or wait for the $38,000 pullback.

Today's rally after days of sharp selling It looked like blind buying across the board today, which makes him suspicious considering the geopolitical risk. How do you play the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war? Technically, we're in a downtrend. Today was a bear market bounce.

Today's rally after days of selling Today's bounce wasn't a surprise. It was a blip. It seemed that like sellers were exhausted. But she would not sell on strength, but would stay long, stay invested in quality names with long-term value and strong balance sheets.

Washington warned Beijing it could face devastating sanction if China defies the ban on doing business with Russia. What will happen to stocks? It's scary, a tremendous game of chicken. China has been the growth engine for companies like Apple, SBUX, McDonald's and Nike. What if China becomes a negative, not a place for growth? She likes Google, Meta and Twitter for having no exposure to China.

The soaring price of oil. US bans Russian oil. It appears Putin's Russian army will push on and the west will continue to block Russian oil sales. The west will need to replace that supply somehow. As a growth stock manager, energy is seldom part of his portfolio, but he did add Whitecap and Chevron recently. Canadian energy stocks were cheap even before the invasion and will continue to rise. The risk is a sudden change in the Russian war that reverses the rise in oil prices/stocks. European defence spending will pick up, so North American defence stocks will continue to climb. He owns Raytheon. Overall, he's shocked about the overdone selling in the markets as a whole.