Market Commentary — Page 361

Market Commentary

COMMENT

I know what you're thinking: Why not sell everything and come back when this meltdown ends? Answer: We don't know when the selling ends and the opportunity begins? He's seen dozens of these sellings like today. Experience says it's very hard to time the bottom. He kept accumulating wealth by never stopping his investing--he reinvested dividends and bought when markets were down....The Fed has a daunting job to crush inflation with interest rate hikes, but Powell needs to get more aggressive. Consumer spending needs to decline.

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COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The biggest market rallies occur during bear markets. It could be bargain-hunters, asset allocation shifts, or short covering. Some stocks will double once this market truly pivots. Would like to see a rally that lasts more than one day, and a market where there are not 3% swings, daily. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

It's difficult to call the market short-term, though many S&P companies have reported well with earnings up 4-5% YOY. There's sometimes a disconnect between a company report to the market reaction, like Home Depot's positive report this morning with a strong backlog; HD shares opened sharply but have fallen. Investors are thinking/worried of the macro. She owns income and growth stocks. Utilities and pipelines pay dividends and she likes companies making profits, can access capital (to acquire) and therefore offer real growth.

COMMENT

Unless something actually goes right with the market, like good news, then the rally will not last. China's lockdowns, Putin's Ukraine war, and hot inflation continue to drive markets down.

COMMENT

There are many issues with the market but the one getting the most attention is inflation. It is the most in 40 years creating the fear of a deep recession since the Fed. will raise rates aggressively. Fears are slightly overblown especially on the inflation front. Half of the CPI is composed of three major parts: shelter, energy and food. House prices, 1/3 of the CPI, have peaked and are turning down. Energy is up by 40%. It tends to shoot up right away with Geo-political situations and then not go much higher. Food prices are related to energy prices so if energy prices go down so do food prices.. The worst of the price increases are probably behind us. Also prices don't have to go down for inflation to go down. If they stay where they are, inflation will come down but it takes time. Growth stocks are way down but in many cases the fundamentals are the same or better so there are opportunities. However stay away from non-profitable tech companies that were high flyers and peaked last year.

COMMENT

Likely have reached peak inflation. What will the new base rate be? Possibly higher than the Fed would want. They would then overcorrect and cause a recession. Markets will probably stabilize in the next few months. No new highs.

COMMENT

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Most bubbles have already popped; cryptos, EVs, SPACs. Other than some of the biggest companies, we have seen small cap and mid cap growth stocks simply devastated. Yet, earnings estimates are moving up (contradicting some of the article comments) and corporate balance sheets are in very good shape vs other cycles. There are 11M jobs available in the US. Everyone is negative, yet the things that count: earnings, jobs and interest rates, are not necessarily that bad. Rates are rising, and inflation is a concern. But at some point, inflation peaks. It may peak faster with a China slowdown and a possible recession. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

Believes downward pressure on markets will continue as interest rates continue to rise. Raising capital for small cap and technology companies will become more expensive. Opportunity in bonds as yields rise. More bullish on bonds than stocks.

COMMENT

Believes further room for S&P 500 to drop as historical P/E average (16x) lower than today (20x). Not buying any stocks and is waiting for markets to fall further. Expecting further drops in the summer.

COMMENT

energy outlook He holds 30% energy including green and oil, and continues to add to it. Crude oil prices will pause here and there which is normal, but will continue to climb.

COMMENT

Today is a bear market bounce today and won't sustain, but at some point a rally will sustain. Lockheed Martin and Abbvie, for instance, we are doing well, because they are good companies. You must stay invested int his market, but buy quality names like these. It depends on the Russian war and China's lockdowns. Today isn't the bottom. Hold a little more cash than usual to deploy during opportunities.

COMMENT

The Nasdaq has been very oversold. Today, the smallcap techs are especially ripping. All tech still has so far to run. But sentiment in the short term at least has shifted. We'll see if the intraday rally holds by the close. This won't be a quick bounce like Dec. 2018 and March 2020, but rather a paradigm shift with a slower grind going forward. Be patient. But don't pivot out of growth and into free cash-flow companies.

COMMENT

As bearish as he is, he's been expecting a bounce like today. Volatility remains high and he will remain bearish. Inflation will persist as well lower earnings revisions. But now you can buy stocks selectively, just not wholesale.

COMMENT

Healthcare amid volatility. Challenging environment, to say the least. Macro uncertainty, inflation running hot, interest rate uncertainty. Relatively, healthcare is holding up quite well given the volatility we're seeing. But not all healthcare. Some areas, like smaller cap and higher growth, are more impacted.

COMMENT

Grey tsunami fueling bullish outlook? Absolutely. Healthcare is one of the very few areas of the market that's well positioned for the aging population dynamic. As people age, they spend exponentially more on their healthcare needs. There are non-cyclical drivers as well, like developing markets and technological innovation in medical devices, pharma, bio, and bio tech. The macro environment is very strong. Visibility across many sub-sectors is challenged with rising interest rates. Healthcare is known as a superior good, and so it has pricing power. We need it in up and down markets. Healthcare is where investors should be. Canada has few offerings. You should be looking for at least a market weight toward the sector, which is 13-15% globally.

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Healthcare amid volatility.(A Commentary)

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