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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Open Jobs per Unemployed Person. The labour market has been a thorn in the Federal Reserve’s side, as a historically low unemployment rate and high job openings have resulted in rising wage growth, contributing to persistently high inflation. This year has been all about economic data points, and rightfully so in the wake of persistently high inflation. There have been many economic releases that investors have kept a close eye on this year - Central Banks’ interest rate decisions, CPI prints, housing prices, GDP prints, and of particular interest in this market update, jobs data. The number of job openings in the US has ballooned since the trough in 2020 to a staggering total of 12 million open jobs earlier this year. At the time, this represented close to two available jobs per unemployed person.
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Tech earnings have been brutal so far this week Tech has become a pariah this year. They used to have little competition, great growth and little economic sensitivity. No more. FAANG is no longer a secular growth story, but held hostage to the wider economy.
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Educational Segment. Waiting to see if Bank of Canada will mirror U.S. Federal Reserve monetary pivot (pause on interest rate increases). Concern is that job losses are increasing in the USA and recession is coming. Will impact interest rates in Canada (bond prices). ZSP & ZUE highlight differences in investing strategies (currencies).
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Market Movers: October 2022. The TSX composite index declined 4.6% during the month and 13% YTD. While this was not a terrific performance, it was significantly better than the major US Indexes. The principal contributor to this decline was the aggressive stance taken by the Central banks who promised to continue hiking rates going forward in order to fight inflation. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
Fundamentally oil should be $100 a barrel and a price of $100 to $120 should be sustainable for 5 or 6 years. China's zero Covid policy and a potential recession may mean lower oil prices on the demand side but the supply side is important too. Global inventory has fallen the most in history and is still falling. We have had a massive draw-down of reserves, the biggest in history, and it is now ending. The EU embargo on Russian oil could impact Russian production. Also there is upcoming seasonal strength. He sees production growth peaking in 2024. There are record amounts of cash flow and debt is being paid down. Some companies have so much cash flow they can buy back all their stock in three years and therefore privatize. The headwinds should last no more than two months. He feels that at $180, oil will be too expensive to use for discretionary purposes. Next year should be a catalyst to re-rate stocks trading at near generational low valuations.
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The question was on natural gas. He prefers to stay in oil one reason being you can't predict weather and temperature. Good gas names to own are ARC and TOU. Also Nuvista of which he is the second largest shareholder.
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The question was on hedging. He is not in favour. The best hedge is a strong balance sheet. Bullish on oil so doesn't want to see capping.
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He's sick of hearing that earnings are weak. Not true! Look at Bank of America, JNJ, Lockheed Martin, American Express or CSX last week. They reported beats. Earnings are sharply better than expected.
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The USD according to technical analyst Carley Garner The US dollar hasn't broken $113.40 resistance, according to her data. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the USD has surged, but it is the last asset to revert to the mean, but that is coming. The strong dollar has been albatross, weighing on US stocks. Garner sees the ISD return to pre-invasion levels, which would be spectacular for stocks. Meanwhile, she sees a perpetual bearish divergence from the relative strength index (RSI), and the RSI is hitting extremes now, so the USD is waning.
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Believes negative sentiments in the markets are creating good buying opportunities. Markets are oversold and could mean that we have reached a bottom. US Federal Reserve moderation on interest rate increases (50 basis points instead of 75) will be interesting to watch.

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Falling stock and bond prices are a rare occurrence. Usually bonds rise and/or fall inversely to equity prices. Looking into defensive sectors to protect investor capital. Auto industry is presenting good opportunities.

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San Francisco's Fed chair called for a slowdown in hiking interest rates The market is telling the Fed that it can't wait any longer to see the effect of their rate hikes is reducing inflation. Therefore, he expects the Fed will pause their rate hikes in November. You have to give the market a chance to catch its breath. We're seeing cracks in how to price fixed assets.
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A regional U.S. Fed chief says that interest rate hikes need to slow down The Fed is not robotic and will be data centric. Today's news is clearly good news and the market is responding positively. A 75-point hike for November is already priced in.
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Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Small Caps Tend to Lead Markets Higher. We are biased here as we have always focused on small- and mid-cap stocks, but small companies tend to lead the market higher in a recovery. And they are historically cheap. Right now, they are about as cheap as they’ve ever been versus large caps, because scared investors are paying more for the perceived safety of larger companies. Small caps tend to have purely domestic revenues, so you don’t have to worry about the war or recessions in China and Europe. Small caps tend to have clean balance sheets, since banks don’t want to lend them much money. Small caps tend to have higher insider ownership, so executives are highly motivated and aligned with shareholders. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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