A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

By now, we're all sick of inflation and maybe we're willing to let Jay Powell administer some strong measures. His speech last Friday was aggressive and brilliant, because it pushed rates up 0.25% on his words alone. Powell wants to instill fear in spending. He's supposed to be stern so that he cools down the economy. He's in a tough spot because employment is still high, but he has to do something. But he must avoid a wage-price spiral that would feed itself. Wages need to stop rising before he stops raising rates. Companies that pay dividends and have sound balance sheets will do well. Companies that do not, that lose money, better sell them.

An historic analogue for the current market, based on research by technical analyst Larry Williams The 2000 DJ was an analog for 2018; both years were ugly with 2000 being the Dotcom Collapse with end-2018 seeing Powell hikes rates to stamp out nascent inflation. 2009 for 2020: markets collapsed in Q1, found a floor in March, then rebounded both years, during the Great Recession and Covid respectively. 2010 for 2021: similar charts though 2013 is a better fit. Push that forward to 2022 which could look like 2014; after running up in June/July, markets took a big hit in August, then rallied again through the end of the year (except a short, sharp pullback in October--be ready for that!--but that was caused by an Ebola scare). Therefore, the outlook for the rest of the year--especially November and December--is positive.

Believes US Federal reserve will make upcoming rate decision based on economic data from the past 6 months. Thinks US Fed will be able to reduce inflation to 2% in the upcoming year. Housing sales and credit lending has decreased. Earnings in Q2 were solid, and was surprised how strong they were. Energy will contribute most of the S&P growth in earnings.

Powell's hawkish comments today The job market remains strong and other economic data has been strong. There was no reason for Powell to be dovish at all. He needs to send a clear message that the Fed will fight inflation. Sounds like the Fed will keep interest rates high for a long time. A soft landing remains possible.

Powell's hawkish comments today Clearly, Powell was forceful in saying the Fed will stifle demand. There's been so much free money in markets, so Powell had to say what he said today--will keep rates up to beat inflation.

Powell's hawkish comments today The last thing the market needs is to expect a dovish pivot by the Fed. He expects more tough talk from the Fed. So, a definite recession in Europe within 12 months and a 50% chance in the U.S. There have been 9 instances since 1945 when a recession was the cure for inflation.

He's not surprised with Powell's hawkish comments today that have triggered a market sell-off. No surprise to anyone that he will be data-dependent.

He's never seen a market down nearly 3% because it expected something. A lot didn't expect such a hawkish statement. There's been free money around the world for a long period like an addiction. There has been some delusional thinking. The market got to 18x--expensive at any time.

Canadian June job vacancies. Usually when we get a recession there are significant job losses, which pushes things down even further. With so many vacancies already, if we get an economic slowdown, there will be more losses but any recession would probably be a very mild one.

Market and economy are not always closely correlated. Often when a recession is looming and the news is negative, people expect that stocks won't do well because corporate earnings will fall. Reality is that stock markets often do well partway into a recession. We have a positive jobs market, and we're getting to the end of the interest rate rising cycle that's putting so much pressure on markets. It appears that inflation is actually peaking, and we expect it to do so in most of the world later this year. This will set the stage for a more positive outlook. War in Ukraine is not going to go on forever. The West is not going to continue to pour billions into the effort, and Germany's not going to let itself freeze over the winter. Over the next 12-18 months, the world's going to look very different.

Ignore the gloomy prognostications, and take advantage of opportunities? Greatest opportunity in banking. Global bank stocks have been hammered. Canadian banks are down substantially, but much less than global banks. Phenomenal opportunity in the best of the best, both in the US and in Canada. Dividends are safe, banks are in outstanding financial shape, balance sheets are solid, loan losses remain minimal. Chance to step into great businesses on sale. Large cap tech valuations have come down as well.

Nugget of investing wisdom. Never give up on a solid company just because the share price is lagging at a moment in time.

Long-term BCE 2044 bond, yielding 4%. BOC only impacts short-term interest rates, so raising rates doesn't necessarily have an impact on long-term bond yields. Please don't put a large chunk of your money into long-term bonds, because if long-term bond yields rise, your bond will suffer a significant price decline. You should own a diversified bond portfolio, and diversified by maturity date as well. You should probably tilt a bond portfolio to the shorter end.