A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

We're kind of in a bear market, but you have to define bear market carefully. It doesn't mean that everything's going down. It means the market's very discriminating and it seeks out poor values and drives them down. It also leaves room for good values to go up. Hopefully, his 3 Top Picks today will do just that.

Absolutely. Here, in Canada, TSX values are pretty good. It's dominated by banks which are relatively cheap, oils which are very cheap, and mines and golds. The heavy weights in our index point that it can go higher. We've been in the shadow of the US since 2009-2010. They had their moment in the sun, but now it's our turn to shine. Over time, the spotlight alternates between Canada and the US.

In Canada, they're all very expensive, trading up near maximums. Good news is that if you're going to hold for 10 years, you're likely going to come out well, stocks will likely double. That's a 7% compound gain, which is no screaming heck. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.

Still bullish on oil and gas. Increasing pressure on companies not to expand in the face of rising demand has caused upwards price pressure. China is now coming back onstream, so who knows what their energy demands will look like? US has been running down its strategic reserves to its lowest level in 30 years. If you're an energy company that's getting punished for drilling and expanding, but the money's just gushing in, what do you do with it? Buy back stocks and pay out nice dividends. Just standing there doing nothing means that the companies are getting cheaper and the yields are getting better.

Be defensive, as we're in that kind of a market. Really nice to have some income to see your way through. If nothing else happens, at least you have something coming in. If you get 5-10% capital appreciation on top of a 7+% return, you'll have a heck of a year. He's trying to hedge against downside and maximize yield.

Advantage of DIY Investor: No comparison.  Because the vast majority of financial advisors in Canada are compensated based on the investments they select for their clients, rather than by their clients directly, what is best for the investor is frequently at odds with what is best for the advisor. Put yourself in their shoes: as an advisor, would you suggest the broad-based mutual fund that will kick back a generous fee into your account, or the index fund that will pay you nothing but accomplish the same goal for the client and save them tens of thousands of dollars? The incentives of paid professionals can never be truly aligned with the investor.  
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Nobody should be shocked with Jerome Powell's hawkish comments now about raising rates sooner, if needed, given economic data. There's some talk that the Fed will hike rates next by 75 basis points, not 50, though he disagrees with this. Powell is saying that he will do what it takes to get the job done--tame inflation. The economy is okay now, but we will get a lot more tightening until the early part of 2024 may see an economic crunch. The TSX will re-test its 19,150 level in light of these new rates. Though, the Bank of Canada says it will pause hikes, while the U.S. will raise faster. The reality may fall in the middle.

Rising rates in the US means compressed margins, which is a concern. The big banks can borrow, issue shares and buffer their capital reserves, but the mid-sized ones can't. Better to buy a big bank.

Inflation is dipping lower, but also economic activity. This will lead to negative GDP growth rates by year's end, which could signal the start of a recession.

This decline in natural gas prices (hitting lows today) is good to fight inflation, even short term.

Believes 1) "peak/troughs" & 2) "past 200 days" are simplest way to look at markets.
All major indexes are pointing to upwards trend.
Believes caution warranted in markets as future uncertain.
Need to see break through on indexes before will start investing again.
Is waiting for upcoming actions of US Fed.
Expecting pain for the consumer with rising interest rates.

Advantage of DIY Investor: Tune out the noise. Professionals are constantly exposed to a barrage of investment information. The signal to noise ratio from the firehose of daily news is vanishingly small, while the cognitive toll is high. They are compelled to pay attention to short-term volatility which triggers the most destructive behavioural errors. DIY investors, on the other hand, have the luxury of tuning out the noise, developing a sound long-term strategy, setting it in motion, and checking our portfolios only when appropriate—perhaps every six to twelve months. 

He remains bullish, but isn't putting much stock into today's rally. The real test will come with inflation and employment data in the coming two weeks.

We won't return to 3,200 (his former target), but there will be rallies as well as more volatility. He has few regrets of what he has sold. We're in a bear market rally.

Would advise investors to keep equity portfolios well balanced given underlying strength of economy. 
A 60/40 portfolio with fixed income/equities will do investors well.
High interest products are paying nice returns for defensive names. 
High quality dividend stock are offering great opportunities. 
Opportunity can be found in low priced tech stocks.