A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Some comments at the end of the show: he owns Disney which should become profitable after big losses due to the streaming component. Netflix is not as good since it is a 'one trick pony' when compared to Amazon and Disney.

The Fed may finally halt interest rates, but for unexpected reasons. Instead of cooling inflation, we are seeing a bank run which could get worse if the Fed gets less aggressive and grows more concerned about bank closures and seizures. Short-term interest rates plummeted and today regional shares slid as much as 60%. The Fed will announce its decision next week. They could raise by only 25 basis points then hold, or stay put. That's the chatter on the street. So far, we dodged a bullet today when the FDIC stepped in (to take protect all of SVB's depositers). If they hadn't, we would have been in a recession by week's end. We need to stop the run on regional bank stocks.

No. Bitcoin is a strange animal. It was being manipulated all the time by Sam Bankman-Fried, and could still be manipulated by somebody. He once believed in Bitcoin, but not now.

Money managers have their second-largest short position in bonds since 2018. SVB's collapse throws bonds into a tailspin and it's a matter of time before treasury yields come back down too. He can't see the Fed raising rates at its torrid pace. If tomorrow's CPI number is hot, maybe they will hike 25 basis points then hold. That's it. The US 10-year yield has plunged from 4.0% to 3.5% in a week. If you're worried about banks going under, it's better to put your money into US treasuries. Long-term treasury yields are headed a lot lower, a tremendous boon to the stock market which is tremendously contrarian call.

Believes market over bought in February. 5-6% market pullback not a surprise for her.
Second half of February historically weakest time of the year.
US Fed actions causing uncertainty among investors.  
Thinks more volatility to come. 
Looking into defensive names with quality names.
Expecting economic recovery in second half of this year. 

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We don't know if there will be contagion or fall-out after the collapse of SVB today, the Silicon Valley bank. There will be major losses of anything connected to SVB. However, the silver lining is that the Fed may slow or pause its aggressive interest rate hikes. Jay Powell wants to apply the brakes on the economy, but not cause a pile-up. Stay the course. He actually picked up some shares today. SVB could derail the tech/growth economy, but could slow Fed hikes.

He's pretty constructive on markets. The important development we're starting to see is a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is the definition of a new uptrend. His work says that the market put in an important low on 13 October 2022. On a 1-year chart, we're now coming right to some pretty important technical support. The market reaction to jobs numbers tomorrow will be pretty important, but right now it's pretty positive that we're holding the line.

Yes, the big driver is inflation and what the Fed's going to do about it. Since October, he's been telling clients that we're in a higher-for-longer (HFL) cycle. The market is rewarding 3 main beneficiaries of this: financials, industrials, materials. Dividend payers, especially, in all those areas are doing really well. His technical works is showing that those are the outperformers in the market right now. 

Not as much because they're returning capital, and a lot are older companies not as focused on R&D. It's the growth-oriented companies, like those in IT or communication services, that are going to be hampered by higher rates.

One of his favourite themes for this year, along with platinum. Had a good run, but now in seasonal weakness that goes into the summer. Expects choppy consolidation around $1800. A lot of the big miners like AEM and ABX have come back to important technical support near their 200-day moving averages. Doesn't mind nibbling right now. Strong seasonality in June, July, August, and that's when he expects them to take off. That's when stocks in general tend to be weaker. Looking for a retest of the highs. If we can get above $2000, that's a big breakout, next upside potential to around $2700. 

He'd be looking more at exploration areas, such as CS or IVN. Big runup, consolidation through pandemic, and then a big correction through the bulk of 2022. Now starting to re-accelerate. Copper and materials are more early- to middle-cycle plays. Really likes them. Good upside for copper stocks through the bulk of this year and at least halfway into next.

Exactly right that if something is moving, it's likely to keep moving unless there's a big event. If the world is ending, why are there charts making new highs? You always want to be on the right side of the trend. One of the things that trips people up in investing, is that you have to listen to the market. It can't be my way or the highway. If the market's telling you that you're wrong, then you're wrong. It's not the market that's wrong. For some people, ego is more important than money. 

The Fed can't stop what it's doing until it wrestles inflation to the ground. People under the age of 55 don't remember what it was like the last time inflation got out of control, when interest rates went berserk up to 20% both in Canada and the US. You don't know what pain is like until you face a 20% interest rate on your mortgage. He thinks Powell is actually frightened, so get the job done, and then we can open up again. We might have a recession here and things might slow down, but as an equity person, he likes to see cheap valuations. So when markets come down, that's wonderful.