A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Exactly. Resistance in February and April, and he's anticipating a push higher toward those levels. There's going to be a short-term pause or consolidation, but ultimately this will lead to a rally that will take us to the 4300 level. 

The chart through October and December 2022, and March 2023, we had a series of higher lows. February highs were above the December highs, so especially if we take out the August 2022 highs, you'll see higher highs and higher lows, and that's the definition of an uptrend.

Under pressure with commodities being pressured. TSX has already moved above its August 2022 highs. If we can take out the June 2022 highs, that would be positive.

The technical pattern that's trying to form is an ascending triangle pattern. The flatline is at the top of the triangle, and the higher lows form a line to meet it. In technicals, this is one of the most positive patterns out there. If we can clear the February and April highs of this year, that's very bullish.

His thesis is that we're starting a new bull market. As we get closer to the August 2022 highs, lots of people who've shifted to a more bullish stance are going to take some profits. If we clear those August highs, that could be an intermediate peak, and the first decent 5-10% correction in this market.

When all the naysayers change their view and put their money to work, that will be a really powerful tailwind for markets next year.

Historically, strong seasonality from March-April-into May. Slowly showing signs of improvement, but it will be choppy. Use tight stops, using previous day's lows. Remains quite volatile. Tailwind of positive seasonality.

Very cyclical. Chart shows that we're seeing a similar slowdown as we saw in 2019-20. He likes accumulating lumber names at these levels, as they look quite attractive.

Investors do the exact opposite of what they're supposed to do. You're supposed to sell your losers and let your winners run. Human psychology makes us repeat the same mistakes. They get the adrenaline rush of cashing in on a gain. Then they hope and pray that a 10% loss becomes a 0% loss. Every 90% loss starts off as a 10% loss.

The biggest enemy for every investor is themselves.

Warning: viewers out West may not like this opinion. Energy is a late-cycle play. When the economy is running on all cylinders, that's when energy starts to run hot. Pandemic was a black swan event that forced a spike in the chart.

His view is that oil will be in a choppy, sideways trading range between $60-85 over the next 2 years until 2025-late 2026. Energy probably won't have negative performance, but it could be challenged in terms of performance relative to the TSX. Right now, we're 7 months into the cycle.

Basic Investing Metrics: Financial Notes. It is surprising how few investors read the notes in a financial statement. Sure, they can be boring and confusing, but they really do contain the best information and sometimes even hidden messages, either good or bad. We are reading the notes very carefully these days, looking for a company’s exposure to higher interest rates, rising costs and potential other bombs if we enter a recession. 

The notes will also provide further details on all the points we’ve noted above, and go into more details on line items. The notes are likely more important than the rest of the financial report, so we often start with the notes first when examining a company for investment.
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U.S. Large Cap Health Care Stocks include Manged Care, Pharma, Bio Tech, Medical Device makers. Health care is a huge chunk of the U.S. market. A lot of the big innovations and R&D happen in the U.S. Obesity drugs have been one of the hottest areas and a big drug development for Eli Lilly. Lots of exciting possibilities are in the pipeline.

Speaking in terms of health care generally, the managed care component may have more growth than the overall economy. There is a transition to more value based care which results in more efficient patient turn-around.

Believes pause in interest rate hikes will be good for gold prices (less interest rate yield is more reason to own gold).
Gold is protection against inflation for long term investors (US Dollar losing purchasing power). 
Expecting demand for commodities to continue to rise.  
Planning for gold prices to appreciate. 

Basic Investing Metrics: Debt and Leverage. These metrics can have a significant impact on a company’s financial health. Investors should examine a company’s debt levels to determine if they are sustainable and manageable. Areas to pay attention to include the debt-to-equity ratio, which measures a company’s debt relative to its equity. A company with a high debt-to-equity ratio may be more vulnerable to economic downturns and may struggle to make debt payments.

The interest coverage ratio, which measures a company’s ability to pay interest on its debt, is another key. A company with a low-interest coverage ratio may struggle to meet its debt obligations.

Also look at the maturity of a company’s debt, or the time frame in which it must be repaid. A company with a large amount of debt maturing in the near term may face liquidity issues. We always look at the debt-maturity schedule, which is typically revealed in the financial notes.
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Believes low unemployment rate in the USA (~3.4%) adding fuel to inflation.
Low unemployment rate correlated with under performing stock market.
Unemployment not a good indicator on state of economy.
Thinks economy and stock market in for a tough quarter. 

Basic Investing Metrics: Quality of Earnings. This refers to the sustainability and reliability of a company’s profits. Investors should examine a company’s earnings to determine if they are of high quality. A company with consistent earnings growth over several years is more likely to have high-quality earnings than a company with erratic earnings. And a company with positive cash flow from operations is more likely to have high-quality earnings than a company with negative cash flow.

Also, a company with a high return on equity is more likely to have high-quality earnings than a company with a low return on equity. And investors should remember that many companies do not pay much in taxes when they are growing, so it is important to know how earnings will change once a company becomes cash taxable. 
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