A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

The Importance of Pricing Power: Inflation has been a hot topic in the investment community in the last two years. Every investor wants to protect their portfolio from losing purchasing power by diversifying into different asset classes such as real estate, foreign currencies, gold, real estate, crypto, etc. We think one of the best hedges against inflation is through the ownership of great businesses with significant pricing power that could raise prices to offset costs pressure without losing volumes. We believe that companies with strong pricing power have the ability to do well in an inflationary environment for these particular reasons: 1) The ability to raise prices to offset inflation without losing volumes helps companies maintain their profit margins 2) Pricing power allows companies to price their with flexibility, sometimes even faster than average inflation rates of 3-4%, leading to operating profit margin expansion 3) A high gross margin can be a powerful lever for organic growth over the long term, especially for companies with mature volume growth.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT

The banking crisis is quite isolated and consists of a couple of banks not managing assets well. However we still need to watch whether other banks will tighten credit which can create problems for borrowers. There will be more consolidation in U.S. banks and tighter regulation. The probability is for a soft landing with just some slowing down, since the economies in North America are strong along with high employment levels. The market correction last year presents good buying opportunities especially in high dividend stocks and defensive sectors like utilities and banks. The bond markets have created equity like returns. Inflation is coming down. If things get worse in the economy or the banking crisis spreads, it could lead to lower rates which is bullish for stocks and bonds. Buy on dips.

COMMENT

The longer this mini-banking crisis drags, the higher the Fed must take interest rates. On the other hand, if a larger bank fails, those hikes halt.

COMMENT
Crude oil forecast

Is confident crude oil will bounce back given China's demand. Also: if the Fed can design a soft landing; technician Larry Williams concludes that oil will rise based on his analysis of historic market patterns.


COMMENT

Remains bullish on oil prices.
Large volatility in oil prices due to instability in banking markets.
Believes dislocation between financial and physical demand for oil.
Indication from China is that demand for oil is still growing with re-opening of economy.
Inventory slowing rising, but not concerned for long term energy prices. 
Expecting higher energy prices going forward. 
People overly bearish on oil price with US shale production falling. 
Fundamentals in market is suggesting less supply than demand.

COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

Portfolio Risk Management Strategies. Proper Position Sizing. There is no right or wrong number of stocks that an investor should hold in one’s portfolio, however, many studies have shown that a portfolio with 20 or more stocks helps to remove company-specific risk from a portfolio. To use an example, at the extreme end, a portfolio with only one stock will be severely exposed to the individual risks of that company, whereas an investor that increases the number of stocks in a portfolio will reduce the individual risks from the underlying companies. The investor is then theoretically only left with the risks of the broader market (interest rates, inflation, recession, etc.). There is also a risk of over-diversifying, where too many individual stocks will begin to erode one’s ability for higher returns. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
After the Fed hikes rates

After the initial 3-day reaction, the market reversed itself the following month 7 out of 8 times.

COMMENT
US bank deposits being guaranteed.

Two words: moral hazard. Not good. Banks operate in the private sector and earn profits for their shareholders. They operate under a social and regulatory license to provide safe and stable banking. They should be able to do that without the government backstopping depositors. Otherwise, it encourages undue risk-taking. Regulators do whatever it takes to shore up confidence in the banking system, but you wouldn't want to see a habit being made of it.

COMMENT
Once confidence is lost, it can reinforce itself.

For banks, the #1 assets on their balance sheets are the goodwill and trust they have with their customers. If they lose that, they can't continue to operate even for a single day, as SVB and Signature found out the hard way. When a bank experiences a liquidity issue, there are measures that regulators can and should take to alleviate that short-term stress. But if there's a solvency issue, that's another matter altogether. 

COMMENT
Canadian banking oligopoly is the price we pay for a stable banking system?

Yes. Increasingly, little banks and credit unions can't compete with the technology required. But huge mega-cap, global, systemically important banks can. That's why the big banks are getting bigger and the small ones are losing market share. The tremendous profits that the banks earn are the price we pay for a more stable and secure banking system, which is an important pillar for the economy to grow and flourish. We're quite fortunate that Canadian banking has a model for the world to emulate. Our banks have better management, better competitive positions, and better government regulation than both the US and European banks.

COMMENT
Earnings estimates too optimistic?

They remain too rosy, shaking off economic headwinds. History shows that banking tremors can create credit contraction, which ripples through and has a slowing effect on the real economy.

COMMENT
Economic environment.

Be mindful of the environment you're operating in. There are times in market conditions where a rising tide lifts all boats, but this is not one of them. Don't stick your neck out and buy a stock with a chart like a ski slope, and 15-16 Holds or Sells and one very lonely Buy. You can like a stock, but you have to be macro-savvy and pay attention to the environment.

COMMENT
Share consolidation.

Don't worry about getting back to your original share count. You may have fewer shares, but each is trading at a higher price. Sometimes companies do this because it's a reputational embarrassment to have a stock price below $1. Instead, pay attention to the overall dollar amount of your position. 

COMMENT
Bull market game plan.

His firm has names on a watch list. When the market starts to turn around and macro economic indicators turn more constructive, probably later this year, they'll unemotionally jettison some of the more defensive names in favour of more pro-cyclical exposure. 

Showing 4,201 to 4,215 of 21,861 entries