Cautious on the EU side. There was optimism and now there is realism. Markets may calm a bit after the EU summit but there is still headline risk. Whoever wins the US election will hopefully do the right thing for the markets.
Markets. He has only about 5% cash in his clients’ portfolios. He basically owns stocks that pay dividends, so gets paid while he waits. To him, it is not so much as being able to time the market as it is being in the market with a possibility that there is a rotation into the cyclicals.
Financials services? He holds 4 of the big 5 bank stocks with a weighting of 5% each. Doesn't hold National (NA-T) or Bank of Commerce (CM-T). He holds Scotia (BNS-T) for its exposure to South America.
DRIP or take the cash? This depends on the nature of your portfolio. In his case, he does not subscribe to DRIPs but would rather have the cash for possible opportunities going forward. For individuals, this could be a good way to stay in a good company longer-term. If the stock goes down you get a little bit more.
Financial markets. These markets face several risks. Cheap and trading at about 12.8X forward earnings. It sets up for attractive valuations however Europe is creating problems. Europe needs a full integration fiscally and politically. He doesn't see this happening.
Natural gas. The trend is still for weak prices in the foreseeable future. This has huge implications for a whole range of things. Dow has recently invested $4 billion to move some of its operations back to the Gulf of Mexico from the Middle East because of the cheap gas prices.
Markets. Markets are in a state of paralysis. Investors are confused about what is going on in Europe, they are frustrated about the gridlock going on in the US and also, they are fearful of a slowdown in the world economies not to mention a potential for a Lehman moment. Basically people are moving to the sidelines and volumes are way down. People are still selling stocks to buy bonds. He is basically maintaining his 20%-40% cash position for clients but lightening up for nervous clients. If there is any kind of modicum of positive news out of Europe and if there is the elimination of tax cuts in the US gets kicked down the road, which he thinks it will be, that would take a lot of pressure off this market.
Markets. Feels it is going to be a slow summer. Looking forward, he sees fairly muted markets as far as upside potential for now. What really has to happen is that some of these countries have to really bite the bullet. The one who eventually has to have the big bite is Germany. He is cautious with 10% in cash, 30%-35% in bonds.
Still a fan of stepping out of the markets at this time of year. This is a time he sits back and watches and gets ready for tax loss selling at the end of the year. Don’t buy at this time of year. No such thing as an impulse buy for him. He performs technical analysis,momentum theory, etc.
Oil is now where it is a fiscal break even for the Saudis. So he thinks we are about at a bottom. Stocks are not prepared to discount anything lower in terms of oil. There is a lot of opportunity out there. Has a lot of cash and is very cognizant of balance sheets so companies can survive low oil prices if they persist throughout the summer. He is looking at the fundamentals of Nat Gas now and certain things are starting to trend the right way. Futures are not as short on the gas. But storage will become full about August or September and that isn’t good for the price of gas.
Markets. Seeing a lot of dirt cheap stocks that are getting cheaper, due to the irrational and emotional activities in the market place. There are a lot of things on the macro side that are happening such as Italy, Greece, Spain and concerns about recession, etc. Finding a lot of stocks that are cheap, but eventually the market will turn and then these stocks are going to gallop up.
Differences between Growth and Value stocks? In terms of Growth, he is a deep value manager that wants a Tooney for a Looney. These include companies that have high PE multiples, tremendous growth potential, probably trading at massive premiums to Book Value and generally followed by many people. On Value he looks for companies that are trading below Book break up, out of favour and not followed by many analysts.
Markets. Macro events. Europe is going to cause a lot of volatility in the next couple of weeks, but there are also micro events. Earnings for the 2nd quarter are not looking so good. S&P 500 earnings are expected to be down slightly on a year over year basis. 25 of the top 60 Canadian companies are expected to report lower earnings. Markets won’t do very well until we get those 2nd earnings results. Expecting a good rally from late July until the end of the year. Believes the North American markets hit their lows on June 4th.