At some point we are going to see that all that debt in the US cannot be paid back and we will then see a loss of faith, just as we are now in Japan. When this happens, Gold is the ultimate money. The end game within this is that Japan causes the US dollar and market to rise. The next 3 to 5 years will redefine the world we live in.
Markets. Just launched an energy infrastructure fund. There will be a 100 billion spent over the next 5 years in energy infrastructure. Pipelines, mid-streams, oil services, and rail. Differential will narrow with the infrastructure build. Rail stocks are hitting new highs. Oil by rail story does not evaporate if Keystone is approved and built. Producers are looking for alternative transportation because pipelines are a monopoly. CPG built rail terminals themselves.
Markets. You have to be careful when the market has been up 80% of the last number of days. There is no weakness to buy on. You have to chase the market higher. He has not been selling either. It is harder and harder to know what the risk is. A lot of Canada is determined by global growth. He is not seeing a lot of growth in the short term. He finds good things to buy in Canada. There is even some things to buy today. We may not get a correction for 4 or 5 months.
23% of mining companies on venture exchange of 3 months or less of cash. There are 8-9 hundred companies in platinum, silver and gold on TSX Venture. Not all of those companies all scrambling for the same investor dollar are going to make it. With juniors you have financing risk, commodity risk, and management risk. Thinks in the next few years 50% of them will be gone.
Markets. Thinks the timing and sentiment is starting to change. Some major pipeline projects will tend to alleviate some of the bottlenecks. If/when keystone happens it will be a big positive. Keystone should get resolved in late August. Has heard rumours that it could leak over into 2014, though. Differentials in oil prices have narrowed quite nicely. It is now about $8 and he thinks it will narrow to $5 by year-end.
Gas inventories are tracking a little below their 5-year levels and that has been quite positive. We need an exceptionally hot summer from here. We are seeing some switching back from Nat Gas back into coal. The magnitude is not immaterial in the grand scheme of things. His fund is 2/3rds focused on dividend paying stocks and the rest is small cap (with significant cash flow growth) companies that should eventually get taken over by dividend payers.
Markets. Fundamentals in the oil sector are quite negative. New oil production growth in North America is more than global demand growth. Thinks normal seasonal patterns will occur this year. We are now seeing gas inventories build and if they get more than historical then prices could drop $1 for Nat Gas. You may want to take profits in Nat Gas if you are overweight and wait for a buying opportunity.
Markets. Always looks at the big picture. Japan is foreshadowing what’s coming. It is the beginning of the acceleration of money, which is paper money and fixed income. We are starting to see the rush of money coming our way and that is why the US$ is appreciating. It is impossible to get rid of QE. There is a loss of faith in the fiscal system in Japan. The US is in as much debt as Japan but demographically they are behind. Physical gold and precious metals are a small percentage. Gold will be the ultimate winner.