A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

They have US$ accounts even for RRSPs so that you do the currency conversion only once but you have to think of the US tax consequences (e.g. dividends) as well as currency swings when you come to convert the money from the account back to CAD$.

Sell stocks to buy ETFs? Most people in only stocks don’t have good international exposure. Many people aren’t even diversified across sectors, so he supports moving to ETFs.

RESP with Bonds? He doesn’t recommend income for the first 9 or 10 years. $80k portfolio after 18 years would be enough for a Canadian University but may not be enough out of country.

Markets. Emerging market guys were concerned about tapering, but leaders have said interest rates will remain low. S&P 500 at a new high today and he thinks it will go higher still. He doesn’t like the reasons we are going higher, however. We are probably making a very long term low in gold. It could play out over the next few years.

TFSA and RESP – What to buy. VT-N is the total world. XWD-T is very similar except no emerging markets. As RESP comes close to being needed, move to something safer.

Educational Segment. Pay attention to the outliers. Look at a risk/return curve for a market. Sometimes a stock does not lie close to that curve, e.g. more return for the given risk. SPY-US chart shown. Expects it to get to $200 and then he will hedge it with options.

Markets. We recently saw a soft patch of numbers, but they are weather related. We are in the midst of an economic expansion and it will continue. Bank of Canada will eventually follow the Fed who will eventually raise rates after tapering QE. We had a spike up at the new year on the 10 years and then they pulled back a little. The bull market in bonds has gone on for 30 years. The bull market ended last year. You haven’t seen back to back losses in Canadian bonds since the ‘60s. Thinks we will have a small positive for all bonds this year. It will be an underperforming asset. You want to be overweight corporate bonds.

Real Return Bonds. Long term, inflation-protected returns guaranteed by the government. Real yields got very, very low over the last few years. There is still a long way to go to get real yields where they need to be. Should be a very, very small position.

Ville de Quebec. 2.3% bond due Dec 4/18. (Top Pick Nov 22/13, Up 1.03%) Municipal space is looking good. But you have seen a lack of demand.

Canadian Bank rate reset bonds. Don’t be concerned about the rise in rates if you hold them. New ones may get reset at the new higher rates.

Bonds are safer than preferreds. You should do both but Preferreds are a quarter of the total.

Ville de Montreal 3.5% Sep 1, 2023. Cheap for a municipal bond. There were concerns Quebec could call an election, but then they passed their budget.

Markets. He gauges sentiment as ‘confused’. Worst case we go down to the 200 day moving average. Economic data was impacted by the weather so doesn’t tell you anything useful. It will rectify itself in due course. He thinks earnings will give us a good lift from here. Sugar and coffee are surging because of a drought in Brazil but this is temporary. There is some inflation, however. He thinks the market is expecting an inflation rate of 2.15%.

Insurance companies. Prefers banks to insurancDe companies.

Markets. TSX in midst of longest winning streak since 1985. It is doing a little catch up and we have been outperforming the Dow since last July. US economy had that QE and a lot of it ended up in the stock market. Some money is now coming back up from the US, being repatriated. The Loonie at $0.90 is where it will probably settle. We are going to balance our budget and our economy is probably outperforming the US a little bit. We had a bumper crop and we are not in bad shape. The dollar at $0.90 is good for the oil industry. The big move is over, however.